About DAATAN
Prove you were right — without shouting into the void.
DAATAN is a forecast tracking platform where you can make forecasts, track your accuracy, and build your credibility over time.
Why DAATAN?
Turn Predictions Into Accountability
Gut feelings are cheap. Real predictions force you to think deeply, quantify uncertainty, and get specific about timelines. DAATAN holds you accountable.
Build Real Credibility
Track your accuracy in real-time. A strong prediction track record speaks louder than credentials in many domains.
Learn From a Community
See how others think about the same questions. Discover blind spots, sharpen your judgment, and grow with a community of forecasters.
How It Works
Make Predictions
Create forecasts about future events with specific deadlines and resolution criteria.
Community Engagement
Browse the feed, vote on predictions, and see what others think will happen.
Track Your Accuracy
Build your track record with a verifiable history of predictions. Your Reputation Score and Brier Skill Score update automatically after each resolution.
Fair Resolution
Predictions are resolved by trusted resolvers based on transparent criteria you define upfront.
How Scoring Works
Reputation Score (RS)
Your Reputation Score is your long-term credibility metric. It updates after each resolved prediction, weighted by your confidence and the outcome.
- •Earned through accuracy: RS rises with correct calls, falls with wrong ones
- •Can be negative: A poor track record results in negative RS
- •Global: RS is a single score across all topics — use the leaderboard's tag filter to compare forecasters within a specific domain
Brier Skill Score (BSS)
The BSS measures calibration — how well your stated confidence matches reality across all your forecasts. A perfectly calibrated forecaster scores 1.0; random guessing scores 0.
- •Calibration over accuracy: Saying "70% likely" and being right 70% of the time is better than always saying 100%
- •Only on resolved forecasts: BSS updates automatically when a prediction is resolved
Glicko-2 & ELO Skill Ratings
Beyond RS and Brier, the leaderboard offers 11 sorting systems including Glicko-2 (uncertainty-aware skill rating), ELO (head-to-head), Peer Score (vs. community consensus), AI Score (vs. the Oracle), and more. All systems support per-tag filtering so you can compare forecasters within a specific topic.
- •Glicko-2: ranks by μ − 3σ, so one-hit wonders never outrank consistent experts
- •Per-tag leaderboard: select any topic tag to see who is most skilled in that domain specifically
Key Features
🎯 Create & Track
Define forecasts with specific resolution criteria and deadlines
📊 Live Odds
See real-time probability distributions based on community commitments
🤖 AI Assistance
Extract forecasts from news articles and get AI probability estimates via the Oracle
🔗 Social Sharing
Share your forecasts with customizable cards and OG images
📈 Leaderboards
11 scoring systems — ELO, Glicko-2, Brier, Peer Score, and more — with per-tag filtering
🔔 Notifications
Email and push alerts for deadlines, comments, and resolutions
Resources & Community
Contact & Info
Get in Touch