Leaderboard
Top predictors ranked by performance. Prove your accuracy and climb the ranks.
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Reputation Score (RS)
Reputation is earned by making correct forecasts weighted by your confidence. Higher RS means more consistent accuracy.
Brier Score
Lower is better. Measures calibration: (your probability − actual outcome)². Perfect score = 0.
Peer Score
How much better your probability estimates are than the community consensus at the time you committed. Positive = you beat the crowd.
AI Score
How much better your probability estimates are than the AI's estimate at the time you committed. Positive = you beat the AI.
ELO Rating
Head-to-head competitive rating. When two users commit to the same prediction, the more accurate one gains ELO from the other.
TruthScore
Average peer score per prediction — how consistently you beat the community consensus. Positive = you beat the crowd on average.
Weighted Peer Score
Metaculus-style time-weighted peer score. Recent predictions count more than older ones (exponential decay, half-weight every ~14 months). Positive = consistently beat the crowd.