DAATANForecasters ranked by ELO rating. Prove your accuracy and climb the ranks.
Calculating rankings...
Our main rating. Everyone starts at 1500. When several people forecast the same event, the more accurate ones take points from the less accurate ones once it resolves. Within a topic the rating is kept separately, so it changes when you pick a topic.
The share of your resolved forecasts that turned out right. Simple, but it ignores how confident you were — a 51% call and a 99% call count the same.
How close your probabilities were to what actually happened: (probability − outcome)², averaged. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is what always saying 50% gets you, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better.