Forecasts

New Forecast

AI: 20%Europepolitics

The European Union will admit at least two new member states by May 28, 2028.

komapcA

59%

2AI: 45%GeopoliticsEurope

By December 31, 2028, Montenegro will become a full member state of the European Union.

Personal

2commitments

Kron BM

AI: 35%MusicEntertainment

Iron Maiden will perform a concert in Romania that is not canceled, by December 31, 2026.

komapcA

57%

2AI: 45±18%politicsIsrael

Benjamin Netanyahu will form the next government in Israel by December 31, 2026.

2commitments

Ori zimroni

91%

2AI: 48%politicsLaw

The death penalty will be fully abolished in Israel by May 18, 2031.

2commitments

komapcA

100%

1AI: 40±13%GeopoliticsConflict

Israel will engage in a significant military conflict with Iran by October 27, 2026.

1commitments

andrey1barA

100%

3AI: 82±15%GeopoliticsIran

Iran will continue to enforce its two-tier internet access regime for the general public by December 31, 2026.

3commitments

komapcA

19%

3AI: 69±12%BusinessTechnology

The Trump Mobile T1 smartphone will be delivered to pre-order customers by December 31, 2026.

3commitments

komapcA

AI: 55±22%AITechnology

Large language models (LLMs) will be capable of writing binary code directly, bypassing traditional programming languages, with performance at least equivalent to code written using programming languages, by May 8, 2028.

komapcA

86%

3AI: 15%GeopoliticsRussia

Vladimir Putin will not be the President of Russia by May 8, 2027.

3commitments

andrey1barA

27%

2AI: 30%GeopoliticsConflict

Turkey will acquire nuclear weapons by May 6, 2029.

2commitments

Dor Moriah

AI: 50%GeopoliticsMiddle East

Will diplomatic relations between Israel and Turkey be officially restored to ambassadorial level by December 31, 2026?

andrey1barA

100%

2AI: 20%TechnologyAI

Google Search will no longer display a traditional list of organic search results alongside its AI-generated responses for standard queries by May 4, 2027.

2commitments

komapcA

1AI: 60±12%GeopoliticsConflict

Israel will establish a long-term military occupation of a part of southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

1commitments

komapcA

18%

2AI: 15%politicsGeopolitics

Vladimir Putin will officially receive less than 60% of the total votes in the next Russian presidential election held by December 31, 2026.

2commitments

komapcA

AI: 40%GeopoliticsConflict

The Houthi movement will lose control of at least one significant territory currently under its control by December 31, 2026.

komapcA

100%

2AI: 70%GeopoliticsConflict

There will be no missile strikes launched from Iranian territory against Israel, nor from Israeli territory against Iran, during May 2026.

2commitments

Lev Kan

82%

4AI: 80%GeopoliticsConflict

A ceasefire lasting longer than one week will not be implemented in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026.

4commitments

Lev Kan

AI: 42±30%EnergyEconomy

The price of Brent crude oil will reach or exceed $130 per barrel on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) before December 31, 2026.

komapcA

100%

2AI: 20%SportsChess

Magnus Carlsen will return to compete for the World Classical Chess Championship by December 31, 2027, if Nodirbek Sindarov defeats D. Gukesh in a classical chess match with a score difference of +2 or more.

Personal

2commitments

andrey1barA

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