Conflict

35 active forecasts

70%

1AI: 66±4%Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will carry out a new aerial attack on Iranian territory by October 27, 2026.

Kron BM

74%

3AI: 66±5%Geopolitics Conflict

At least one more drone will fall in one of the Baltic countries after August 15 and by September 15, 2026.

komapc

AI: 58±9%Geopolitics Middle East

Israel and Lebanon will sign a formal agreement on security or border arrangements by November 6, 2026.

komapc

18%

1AI: 38±7%Geopolitics Conflict

The IDF will begin withdrawing forces beyond the Yellow Line in Gaza before September 20, 2026.

komapc

22%

1AI: 48±4%Geopolitics Conflict

The United States grants Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missile systems by October 31, 2026.

komapc

79%

3AI: 59±4%Geopolitics Iran

Iran will initiate a direct military strike against Israel before Israel initiates a direct military strike against Iran by July 22, 2031.

komapc

60%

1AI: 49±6%Geopolitics Conflict

The United States will conduct a ground invasion of Kharg Island by December 31, 2026

komapc

29%

3AI: 58±4%Geopolitics Conflict

The Ukrainian army takes back, at least temporarily, a part of occupied Crimea by December 31, 2026.

komapc

48%

1AI: 67±3%Geopolitics Middle East

Rockets or drones are launched directly from Israel to Iran, or from Iran to Israel, by 31 August 2026.

komapc

25%

3AI: 49±13%Geopolitics Middle East

A Jewish settlement, official or unofficial, will be established in Lebanese territory by December 31, 2026.

komapc

37%

4AI: 60±5%Geopolitics Russia

There will be a military mobilisation in Russia by September 5, 2026.

komapc

32%

2AI: 59±18%Geopolitics Middle East

Lebanon will officially recognize Israel by December 31, 2026.

komapc

79%

1AI: 42±16%politics Geopolitics

Bolivia's nationwide state of emergency will be officially lifted by December 31, 2026.

komapc

49%

4AI: 39±6%Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

andrey1bar

53%

1AI: 70±11%Conflict Africa

A new military conflict will begin in Africa before December 3, 2026.

komapc

27%

3AI: 58±19%Geopolitics Conflict

Turkey will acquire nuclear weapons by May 6, 2029.

Dor Moriah

29%

1AI: 64±5%Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will establish a long-term military occupation of a part of southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

komapc

AI: 60±5%Geopolitics Conflict

The Houthi movement will lose control of at least one significant territory currently under its control by December 31, 2026.

komapc

57%

5AI: 63±6%Geopolitics Conflict

A ceasefire lasting longer than one week will not be implemented in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026.

Lev Kan

75%

2AI: 39±3%Geopolitics Conflict

The military conflict between the United States and Iran will formally end by December 31, 2026.

andrey1bar

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