What are the chances that Lebanon will officially recognize Israel by December 31, 2026? As of Aug 18, 2026: the AI estimate is 59%; the community estimate is 32%. · Updated Aug 18, 2026
includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 134 days
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Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.
Will happen (3)
Won't happen (3)
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Forecast by komapc · opened Jul 5, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 2 forecasters · community consensus 32% · AI estimate 59% · open for forecasts.
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