DAATAN
Dec 31, 2026
Community 33%

Lebanon will officially recognize Israel by December 31, 2026.

Creation date
Jul 5, 2026, 05:56 PM UTC
Resolution date
Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has recently defended a US-mediated framework agreement with Israel, asserting it empowers the domestic army despite fierce pushback from Hezbollah. This agreement focuses on deconfliction and aims to avoid war, with Aoun calling on the US to continue supporting Lebanon. However, the Lebanese state's lack of effective sovereignty and Hezbollah's significant influence remain crucial challenges in any broader diplomatic moves.
50%You
Community 33%
You 50%
AI 5%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 180 days

Forecasts History

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Forecast by komapc · opened Jul 5, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 33% · AI estimate 5% · open for forecasts.