k
komapc
A@komapc
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1715
± 232 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1545global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1715global · ± 232 uncertainty
Brier Score0.28210 scored · lower is better
Accuracy63%16 resolved
ROI-1.63RS / resolved prediction
AI Score+0.482 scored
Reputation72.3 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History
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AI: 54±12%politicsGeopolitics
Bolivia's nationwide state of emergency will be officially lifted by December 31, 2026.
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Volodymyr Zelensky will meet Vladimir Putin by July 17, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
AI: 25%TechnologyBusiness
The Commodore Callback 8020 flip phone will sell more than 100,000 units globally by December 31, 2027.
Pending
2TechnologyBusiness
Fable will be reenabled for Americans before June 20, 2026.
No source link
2commitments
K
komapcA
Correct
2GeopoliticsConflict
A memorandum of understanding (MoU) or a peace deal between Iran and the USA will be officially signed by June 20, 2026.
2commitments
K
komapcA
Pending
1politicsElections
Nikol Pashinyan will win the Armenian parliamentary elections held on June 7, 2026.
1commitments
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komapcA
—
The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
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komapcA
—
A new military conflict will begin in Africa before December 3, 2026.
1commitments
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komapcA
—
Armenia will join the European Union by December 31, 2026.
1commitments
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komapcA
AI: 29%politicsIsrael
A law mandating Haredi enlistment into the Israel Defense Forces will be passed by the Knesset by December 31, 2030.
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The European Union will admit at least two new member states by May 28, 2028.
1commitments
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komapcA
AI: 35%MusicEntertainment
Iron Maiden will perform a concert in Romania that is not canceled, by December 31, 2026.
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The death penalty will be fully abolished in Israel by May 18, 2031.
2commitments
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komapcA
—
Iran will continue to enforce its two-tier internet access regime for the general public by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
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komapcA
—
The Trump Mobile T1 smartphone will be delivered to pre-order customers by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
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komapcA
AI: 55±22%AITechnology
Large language models (LLMs) will be capable of writing binary code directly, bypassing traditional programming languages, with performance at least equivalent to code written using programming languages, by May 8, 2028.
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
Ukraine will not launch a direct military attack on Moscow by May 9, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
—
Google Search will no longer display a traditional list of organic search results alongside its AI-generated responses for standard queries by May 4, 2027.
2commitments
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komapcA
—
Israel will establish a long-term military occupation of a part of southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
1commitments
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komapcA
—
Vladimir Putin will officially receive less than 60% of the total votes in the next Russian presidential election held by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
K
komapcA