komapc

@komapc

JoinedFebruary 2026

All112 Geopolitics62 Conflict35 politics29 Middle East27 Technology18 Israel14 Elections12 Business11

Skill Rating

1782

± 132 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

created(9)participated(14)resolved(3)

3AI: 59±4%Geopolitics Iran

Iran will initiate a direct military strike against Israel before Israel initiates a direct military strike against Iran by July 22, 2031.

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3AI: 38±4%politics Elections

Likud will secure more than 33 seats in the next Israeli Knesset election by December 31, 2026.

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Wrong

1politics Israel

The Israeli parliament will be dissolved by July 15, 2026.

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2AI: 55±20%politics Israel

Benjamin Netanyahu will be pardoned by December 31, 2026.

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2AI: 61±15%Economy Israel

The housing price index in Israel will be higher on December 31, 2026, than it was on December 31, 2025.

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1AI: 45±6%politics Israel

A law mandating Haredi enlistment into the Israel Defense Forces will be passed by the Knesset by December 31, 2030.

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2AI: 60±29%Economy Social Policy

Israel will officially implement a nationwide universal basic income (UBI) program for its citizens by April 19, 2036.

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2AI: 47±3%politics Elections

Likud will win the next general election in Israel held by December 31, 2026.

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1AI: 15%Israel politics

A publicly reported congress or conference held in Israel will have exactly 50 participants by December 31, 2026.

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Performance

ELO Rating1439global (head-to-head)

Glicko-2μ 1782global · ± 132 uncertainty

Brier Score · Israel0.4643 scored · lower is better · limited data

Accuracy · Israel33%3 resolved

Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored

Peer Score · Israel-0.21 scored

ROI-21.33RS / resolved prediction

AI Score · Israel-1.052 scored

RS · Israel-64

Reputation104.3 RSglobal · pool-based

Glicko-2 Skill History · Israel

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