Dec 31, 2026

Community 19%

Likud will secure more than 33 seats in the next Israeli Knesset election by December 31, 2026.

Forecast by komapc · opened Jul 3, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 19% · AI estimate 67% · open for forecasts.

Creation date

Jul 3, 2026, 07:00 AM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Tags

Middle East politics Elections

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Recent polls indicate that the Likud party is currently projected to win around 21 seats in the upcoming Israeli Knesset election, representing a drop in popularity. Other parties have seen gains, and the elections are expected within the next few months.

Community 19%

You 50%

AI 67%

Probability over time

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Forecasts History

Will happen0

—

Won't happen1

19%

Sources behind the AI estimate(6 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean51% · will

Will happen (2)

J

jpost.com3↑ 58%

jpost.com↓ 68%jpost.com↑ 66%jpost.com↑ 50%

I

israelnationalnews.com2↑ 56%

Poll: Close race at the top, opposition supporters more likely to vote↑ 60%Maariv poll: Religious Zionist Party and UTJ gain strength, Netanyahu coalition wins 50 seats↓ 34%

Won't happen (1)

aljazeera.netاستطلاع رأي يكشف تراجع شعبية حزب الليكود بزعامة نتنياهو↓ 80%

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Author

komapcAReputation 99

Creation date

Jul 3, 2026, 07:00 AM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Tags

Middle East politics Elections

View on Polymarket →

Discussion (0)

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