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DAATAN
Dec 31, 2026
Community 82%

Likud will win the next general election in Israel held by December 31, 2026.

Created
Apr 10, 2026
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Tags
politicsElectionsIsraelIsraeli Elections 2026
Likud, founded in 1973 to challenge the Israel Labour Party, is currently led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and is Israel's largest right-wing party. It originated as a joint list for the Eighth Knesset elections and broke the Labour Alignment's electoral dominance in 1977 under Menachem Begin.
50%You
Community 82%
You 50%
AI 38%

Probability over time

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Forecasts History

Will happen2
A
andrey1bar
90%
K
komapcAuthor
75%
Won't happen0

—

Sources behind the AI estimate(21 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean32% · will
Press leans toward 'won't happen' · 68%

Won't happen (9)

Y
ynet.co.il6↓ 85%
טראמפ לא רוצה עוד מלחמה. הבעיה היא האיראנים↓ 70%בכיר בליכוד: "נתניהו מבצע סיכול ממוקד לפריימריז"↓ 50%בליכוד בונים על ארדן, שקד, גנץ ושמחי: ״ילכו עם נתניהו״↑ 43%מי עם מי: המפלגות שעשויות להכריע את הבחירות - ויילחמו גם נגד אחוז החסימה↑ 36%החוקים בשבוע המכריע של הדיל: נתניהו משלם לחרדים במזומן - ויקבל נאמנות באשראי–יש תאריך רשמי: הבחירות יתקיימו ב-27 באוקטובר–
MB
Marianna Belenkaya3↓ 91%
תפתחו יומנים: עכשיו זה סופי - הבחירות לכנסת ב-27 באוקטובר↓ 83%Выборы в Кнессет назначены на 27 октября↓ 80%Объявлена дата парламентских выборов в Израиле: 27.10↓ 80%
I
israelnationalnews.com2↓ 90%
Kan News poll: Coalition bloc wins 53 seats↓ 80%Poll: Close race at the top, opposition supporters more likely to vote–
J
jpost.com2↓ 78%
Israeli citizens abroad attempt to secure airline tickets for October elections | The Jerusalem Post↓ 55%When are Israel's 2026 elections? Full timeline and key dates explained | The Jerusalem Post↓ 50%
A
al-monitor.com2↓ 78%
Israel's election will be held on October 27, coalition head says↓ 55%Israel elections to be held on October 27: parliament↓ 62%
N
news.walla.co.ilהממשלה תשלים קדנציה מלאה: הקואליציה מבקשת לקיים את הבחירות ב-27 באוקטובר - וואלה חדשות↓ 90%
A
aljazeera.netمن حزب إلى مجرد قائمة نتنياهو.. ماذا يحدث في الليكود؟↓ 79%
A
aljazeera.comIsrael to hold national elections on October 27, parliament says↓ 77%
A
atlanticcouncil.orgIsrael’s next government must prioritize the Abraham Accords↓ 73%

+3 articles matched but not used by the AI

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Forecast by komapc · opened Apr 10, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 2 forecasters · community consensus 82% · AI estimate 38% · open for forecasts.