k
komapc
A@komapc
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1715
± 232 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1545global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1715global · ± 232 uncertainty
Brier Score · Conflict0.3036 scored · lower is better
Accuracy · Conflict60%10 resolved
ROI-2.82RS / resolved prediction
AI Score · Conflict+0.482 scored
RS · Conflict-28.3
Reputation72.3 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Conflict
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AI: 54±12%politicsGeopolitics
Bolivia's nationwide state of emergency will be officially lifted by December 31, 2026.
—
Volodymyr Zelensky will meet Vladimir Putin by July 17, 2026.
4commitments
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komapcA
Correct
2GeopoliticsConflict
A memorandum of understanding (MoU) or a peace deal between Iran and the USA will be officially signed by June 20, 2026.
2commitments
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komapcA
—
A new military conflict will begin in Africa before December 3, 2026.
1commitments
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komapcA
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
Ukraine will not launch a direct military attack on Moscow by May 9, 2026.
3commitments
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komapcA
—
Israel will establish a long-term military occupation of a part of southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
1commitments
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komapcA
AI: 40%GeopoliticsConflict
The Houthi movement will lose control of at least one significant territory currently under its control by December 31, 2026.
AI: 35%GeopoliticsUS Politics
President Trump will order the deployment of US ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.
AI: 5%GeopoliticsUS Politics
The United States will formally withdraw from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by December 31, 2026.
Wrong
3GeopoliticsConflict
Between April 15, 2026, and April 22, 2026, no international commercial passenger flights to or from Israel will be canceled specifically due to the conflict with Iran.
3commitments
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komapcA
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.
3commitments
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komapcA
—
At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
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komapcA
—
The Israeli army will maintain a presence in Lebanese territory until at least December 31, 2026.
No source link
2commitments
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komapcA
—
The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
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komapcA
—
The United States will deploy ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.
1commitments
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komapcA
Correct
5GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
5commitments
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komapcA
—
Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026.
1commitments
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komapcA
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Zero rockets will be fired from any entity towards Israeli territory by the end of March 8, 2026.
1commitments
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komapcA
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Bat Yam will not experience any rocket or missile strikes on March 4, 2026.
1commitments
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komapcA