The Ukrainian army takes back, at least temporarily, a part of occupied Crimea by December 31, 2026.

K

kyivpost.com3027–92%settling↑ 92%

Not the Outcome Russia Wanted: Ukraine Army Is Europe’s New Military Backbonesettling↑ 92%Ukraine’s Game of Drones↑ 84%Ukrainian Drones are Striking Tankers and Torching Trucks in Crimea↑ 79%The Bill for Crimea Comes Due for Putin↑ 78%Drones vs. Humans- Ukraine's Defense Reshuffle↑ 83%Russia Simulates Ukrainian Crimea Assault in Large-Scale War Games Involving Drones and Missiles↑ 80%Russia is Fracturing From Within (And Putin Can’t Stop It)↑ 75%ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13, 2026↑ 75%ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 9, 2026↑ 70%Zelensky’s Fedorov Ouster Raises Questions Amid 40-Day Campaign↓ 27%Ukrainian Drone Swarms Kill Crimea Power Grid, Fires Visible From Space↑ 73%Experts Warn West Unprepared for Liberation of Crimea as Isolation Campaign Enters Active Phase↑ 80%Ukraine Drones Blast Power Plant, Effectively ‘Shooting Out the Lights’ in Russian-Occupied Crimea↑ 77%ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12, 2026↑ 72%‘Don't Talk to Ukraine With Ultimatums’ – Budanov Says War Could Shift This Year↑ 71%Russian-Annexed Peninsula: Five Things to Know About Crimea↑ 73%Putin Still Thinks He’s Winning His 3-Day “SMO” – Even After Ukraine’s 40-Day Counter-Narrative↓ 31%Occupied Crimea Loses Power After Ukraine Reports Strikes on 6 Substations↑ 69%Ukraine News Today: Breaking Updates & Live Coverage - July 24, 2026 from Kyiv Post↑ 67%Ukraine Liberates 26 Villages, 287 Square Miles Since January in Key Offensive↑ 68%Zelensky Says Ukraine Expects 30,000 Russian Occupiers ‘Eliminated’ in August↑ 67%HUR: Russia Plans to Continue War, May Mobilize After Elections–Crimean Bridges and Naval Drone Hub Hit by Ukraine↑ 64%Ukraine Could Hit 7 Times More Targets in Crimea if Western Funds Arrive Faster, Commander Says–Ukraine Strikes Russian Bastion Missile System in Occupied Crimea–Ukraine Burns While Trump Fiddles–Ukraine Hits Crimean Oil Site, Logistics Routes–ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14, 2026–Extensive Blackouts Hit Occupied Crimea After Intensified Ukrainian Strikes–Ukraine Claims Heavy Russian Losses, Successful Counteroffensive in South–

P

pravda.com.ua2223–93%↑ 86%

Zelenskyy: This year, we will reach an equal amount of occupied and liberated territory↑ 86%Ukrainian government appoints Khmara as acting defence minister↑ 83%Blackout hits all cities and districts in southern Crimea↑ 83%Ukraine strikes Russian radar stations and training centre in Crimea – General Staff↑ 93%Ukrainian forces liberate 7.5 sq km in Kharkiv Oblast↑ 93%Drones strike occupied Crimea: air base may have been targeted↑ 83%Ukrainian intelligence agency: Russia does not plan to cease fire, no peace deal expected by end of year↓ 23%Ukraine's Special Operations Forces strike Sevastopol Thermal Power Plant: nearly 50% of occupied Crimea's generation affected↑ 77%Ukrainian UAVs strike Kuban-Crimea power bridge and series of energy hubs↑ 77%Russia loses 1,410 soldiers and aircraft over past day↑ 75%Ukraine’s commander-in-chief: pace of Russian advance has more than halved↑ 73%Explosions heard across Russian-occupied Crimea as peninsula comes under another drone attack↑ 73%Ukrainian drones strike Dzhankoi airbase, Kerch port and disrupt Russian military logistics↑ 73%Ukraine's General Staff reports strike on Russian airfield in Crimea and bridges in Donetsk Oblast↑ 69%Russian hospitals reveal scale of Moscow's 2025 battlefield losses – investigation↑ 66%Ukraine's Special Operations Forces show how they captured 30 Russian troops – video↑ 68%Russia loses 1,470 soldiers over past day↑ 68%Ukraine's acting defence minister meets new commander-in-chief Drapatyi to discuss battlefield support and strikes on Russia↑ 68%Bloomberg: Russia willing to return to negotiations after occupying Donbas↑ 66%Ukraine purchases 70 ATACMS missiles from Türkiye↑ 66%Explosions and gunfire reported in occupied Melitopol, Donetsk and Crimea – public channels–Drones strike occupied Crimea: explosions reported in Kerch, Simferopol and Feodosiia – photo, video–

A

aljazeera.com1030–87%↑ 83%

Ukraine beheads its military as its performance begins to soar↑ 83%Ukraine decimates Russian logistics, bringing chaos to Crimea↑ 87%Russia’s advance collapses in Ukraine, ‘40,000’ troops killed in June↑ 80%Ukraine chokes fuel to Crimea, Russian consumers, targeting military supply↑ 79%Ukraine ‘cuts off’ Crimea from Russia, plunging it into an energy crisis↑ 75%Ukraine attacks on Russian-occupied Crimea trigger power cuts in Sevastopol↑ 75%Russia drops record number of glide bombs on Ukraine as casualties pile up↑ 70%Russia appears to infiltrate first ‘fortress city’ as Ukraine changes guard↓ 30%Russia drops record number of glide bombs on Ukraine as casualties pile up↑ 68%Russian ballistic attacks intensify as Kyiv claims Dnipropetrovsk advance–

E

euobserver.com650–88%↑ 83%

Russian forces in Donetsk salient risk being cut off, after daring Ukrainian manoeuvre on independence day (Ukraine Battlefield update, Day 1,643)↑ 83%Growing revolt against Ukraine’s top commander sees soldiers shredding his awards (Ukraine Battlefield update, Day 1,608)↑ 80%Ukraine’s new commander has three ways to win the war: training, drones and culture change (Ukraine Battlefield update, Day 1,610)↑ 88%Ukrainian drones are wiping out Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov (Ukraine Battlefield update, Day 1,595)↑ 80%Russia running out of missiles, had to skimp on defence of a nuclear‑submarine base (Ukraine Battlefield update: Day 1,603)↑ 73%Silence ended: Ukraine reveals its largest liberation of territory in four years (Ukraine Battlefield update, Day 1,631)–

Y

yahoo.com650–81%↑ 81%

Opinion - Ukraine may already be winning World War III for an oblivious West↑ 81%Russia's disrupted supply routes are forcing its troops to walk 18 miles to the front, Fedorov says↑ 74%Ukrainian infiltration missions get a lot harder when winter strips away their cover, special operator says↑ 73%Crimea strikes could rise sevenfold if Western funds came faster, Ukraine drone commander tells AP↑ 75%Ukraine recaptured 700 sq km of territory this year, outgoing top general says↑ 66%Ukraine has retaken 745 sq km in 'precision' operation this year, Zelenskiy says–

B

bbc.com576–82%↑ 79%

Крым в блокаде, Москва под ударом — Украина диктует ход войны? - Что это было? - Russian - BBC News Русская служба↑ 79%Как живут без топлива Крым и другие захваченные Россией территории - BBC News Русская служба↑ 82%ВСУ ударили по обеим берегам Керченского пролива. Изоляция Крыма усиливается - BBC News Русская служба↑ 80%Удар беспилотника по поезду в аннексированном Крыму. Как ВСУ усиливают блокаду полуострова - BBC News Русская служба↑ 76%ВСУ заявили о поражении более 20 российских судов в Азовском море. Что известно - BBC News Русская служба↑ 77%

L

lemonde.fr368–83%↑ 83%

Comment l’Ukraine organise l’étranglement logistique de la Crimée occupée par la Russie↑ 83%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : Volodymyr Zelensky confirme des attaques ukrainiennes sur des installations logistiques russes en Crimée annexée↑ 75%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : Volodymyr Zelensky affirme que « 26 villages des oblasts de Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk et Zaporijia ont été ramenés sous le contrôle » de Kiev depuis janvier↑ 68%

D

dw.com373–83%↑ 83%

Ukraine says major Crimea bridge destroyed in latest attack↑ 83%Russia's fuel crisis: Is Putin under pressure?↑ 82%War in Ukraine: Why Crimea has become a strategic target↑ 73%

J

jamestown.org371–81%↑ 81%

Ukraine Ramps Up Drone Strikes in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea - Jamestown↑ 81%Ukraine’s Expanding Strike Campaign Undercuts Putin’s Claims of Steady Progress - Jamestown↑ 78%Strategic Snapshot: Ukrainian Drone Mastery Changing War’s Tide - Jamestown↑ 71%

F

france24.com350–80%↑ 80%

Russia-Ukraine war: First half of 2026 sees sharp rise in civilian casualties↑ 80%The Debate - Crimea back in play? Russia feels pain of Ukraine long-range strikes↑ 79%Ukrainian strikes on Russian-annexed Crimea kill 4, pause fuel sales–

I

independent.co.uk370–79%↑ 79%

Putin knows he’s in trouble. It’s time to kick him while he’s down↑ 79%Russian soldiers ‘surviving just 20 minutes on frontline due to drone attacks’↑ 77%Half a million dead but minor territorial gains: Putin’s devastating war in numbers↑ 70%

A

atlanticcouncil.org279–88%↑ 88%

Drone parade showcases Ukraine's remarkable military transformation↑ 88%Ukraine is winning. Here’s what it needs to finish the job.↑ 79%

T

tagesschau.de270–80%↑ 80%

Versorgungsengpässe durch ukrainische Angriffe auf die Krim↑ 80%Ukrainische Armee mit neuer Führung: "Eine schlechte Nachricht für Russland"↑ 70%

U

understandingwar.org273–79%↑ 79%

Ukraine’s Intermediate-Range Strike Campaign and New Mechanized Attacks Herald the Start of a New Phase of the War↑ 79%Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 6, 2026↑ 73%

A

aljazeera.net272–78%↑ 78%

هل تفقد روسيا سيطرتها على شبه جزيرة القرم؟↑ 78%إعلام روسيا.. الحل في حصار أوديسا ونقل الضربات خارج أوكرانيا↑ 72%

T

themoscowtimes.com267–77%↑ 77%

Crimea Declares State of Emergency After Ukraine Hits Energy Grid - The Moscow Times↑ 77%Regionwide Blackout Hits Crimea After Ukrainian Attacks - The Moscow Times↑ 67%

GB

Guy Bechor230–70%↑ 70%

איך שהגלגל מתהפך..↑ 70%אזהרה קודרת של זלנסקי, מעכשיו.↓ 30%

T

theguardian.com270–73%↑ 70%

‘No electricity, no water, no fuel’: Ukrainian drone strikes bring darkness to Crimea’s summer↑ 70%‘This is where democracy beats totalitarianism’: Ukraine’s drone strike force takes the fight to Russia↑ 73%

The Ukrainian army takes back, at least temporarily, a part of occupied Crimea by December 31, 2026.

Situation

Forecasts History

Sources behind the AI estimate(132 publications)

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