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DAATAN
Dec 31, 2026
Community 39%

Will the Ukrainian army take back, at least temporarily, a part of occupied Crimea by December 31, 2026?

Created
Jul 14, 2026
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Tags
ConflictGeopoliticsUkraine
Ukraine has been actively conducting strikes on Russian energy facilities and military airfields in occupied Crimea, and has also targeted the Crimean Bridge. Reports indicate Ukraine is aiming to effectively blockade Crimea in the coming months and is challenging the positional character of the war.
50%You
Community 39%
You 50%
AI 70%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 171 days

Probability over time

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Forecasts History

Will happen0

—

Won't happen1
K
komapcAuthor
39%

Sources behind the AI estimate(9 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean76% · will
Press leans toward 'will happen' · 76%

Will happen (7)

K
kyivpost.com3↑ 80%
The Bill for Crimea Comes Due for Putin↑ 60%Experts Warn West Unprepared for Liberation of Crimea as Isolation Campaign Enters Active Phase↑ 59%ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13, 2026↑ 50%
A
aljazeera.comRussia’s advance collapses in Ukraine, ‘40,000’ troops killed in June↑ 79%
U
understandingwar.orgUkraine’s Intermediate-Range Strike Campaign and New Mechanized Attacks Herald the Start of a New Phase of the War↑ 79%
B
bbc.comКрым в блокаде, Москва под ударом — Украина диктует ход войны? - Что это было? - Russian - BBC News Русская служба↑ 79%
A
aljazeera.netإعلام روسيا.. الحل في حصار أوديسا ونقل الضربات خارج أوكرانيا↑ 72%
A
aa.com.trUkraine’s parliament votes to extend martial law, mobilization for an additional 90 days↑ 70%
U
united24media.comNearly 2,000 Residents of Temporarily Occupied Crimea Killed While Fighting for Russian Forces↑ 70%

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Forecast by komapc · opened Jul 14, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 39% · AI estimate 70% · open for forecasts.