Skip to content

Forecast Tracking

Forecasts
Activity
Leaderboard
Settings
Elections
About
Contact Us
Retro Analysis

The IDF will begin withdrawing forces beyond the Yellow Line in Gaza before September 20, 2026.

PENDING

Sep 19, 2026

The IDF will begin withdrawing forces beyond the Yellow Line in Gaza before September 20, 2026.

CreatedCreation date

Aug 4, 2026Aug 4, 2026, 07:05 AM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Sep 19, 2026Sep 19, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Context

Recent reports indicate that the Board of Peace and Israel agree that an IDF withdrawal beyond the Yellow Line is contingent on Hamas's complete disarmament.…

Recent reports indicate that the Board of Peace and Israel agree that an IDF withdrawal beyond the Yellow Line is contingent on Hamas's complete disarmament. Despite a US-led peace plan, Israel has intensified military operations and reaffirmed its stance, while Hamas has reportedly accepted a mechanism to restrict its weapons.

Based on

israelnationalnews.com

AI estimate

Oracul

34%± 9%

TruthMachine Oracle (active-forecast backfill) · 92 articles

This claim will resolve as 'Yes' if official statements from the Israeli government or the IDF, or credible reporting from major news outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera) confirm that the IDF has begun withdrawing forces beyond the Yellow Line in Gaza. Otherwise, it resolves as 'No'.

Community 18%

You 50%

AI 3%

Tags

Conflict Geopolitics Middle East

Forecasts History

Will happen0

—

Won't happen1

18%

Sources behind the AI estimate(92 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracul, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean36% · will

Press leans toward 'won't happen' · 64%

Will happen (4)

A

aljazeera.net58–88%↑ 88%

يديعوت أحرونوت: هل تدفن حماس حلم المليشيات في رمال غزة؟↑ 88%مسؤولون إسرائيليون: أصبحنا في مسار تصادمي مع واشنطن بسبب غزة↓ 19%نقاط عسكرية تتزايد وخط أصفر يتوسع.. كيف ترسخ إسرائيل وجودا دائما في غزة؟↓ 8%لماذا قبلت إسرائيل بدخول القوة الدولية إلى قطاع غزة؟↓ 25%ما الذي نُفِّذ من اتفاق غزة بعد مرور 300 يوم؟–

A

aa.com.tr518–82%↑ 82%

Palestinian sources reveal roadmap for 2nd phase of Gaza ceasefire agreement↑ 82%Israeli army ordered not to expand ‘Yellow Line’ westward in Gaza following Netanyahu-Kushner meeting: Report↓ 18%Trump announces agreement on disarmament of Hamas, Israeli withdrawal from Gaza↑ 73%Israel considers partial Gaza withdrawal, multinational force deployment: Report↑ 73%Hamas says no disarmament before Israeli withdrawal from Gaza–

S

srugim.co.il45–90%↑ 90%

במערכת הביטחון נערכים לתמרון נוסף בעזה - סרוגים↑ 90%צה"ל על סף משבר: טנקים מושבתים ומידע מודיעיני נמחק - סרוגים↓ 13%נתניהו מתוך עזה בהצהרה חד-משמעית: “אנחנו לא נסוגים״ - סרוגים↓ 5%ראש מועצת השלום מתחייב: "כל הנשק בעזה יפורק" - סרוגים↓ 30%

N

newsletter.amitsegal.netThe International Stabilization Force Returns?↑ 70%

Won't happen (17)

BC

Ben Caspit1210–75%↓ 10%

Prime Minister Netanyahu firmly rejected the "Board of Peace" 15-point plan, stating the IDF will not withdraw from Gaza until Hamas is fully and verifiably disarmed.↓ 10%נכשל הביקור של נשיא "לבנון" אצל טראמפ.↓ 15%מעולם לא התערבתי במערכות בחירות, וזה כלל אצלי כבר עשרות שנים. אבל העמדות שמביע "תר"ש גדי"👉 הן מבהילות, זו מפלגת המימסד ה"בטחוני" הכושל! וכאן אני מתערב, ועוד איך, כבר 46 שנים, מול הכושלים המסוכנים האלה↓ 28%‏ליברמן:↑ 75%ניצן שפירא מפרסם: בניגוד להצהרות - בישראל מקיימים דיונים על נסיגות של צה״ל מנקודות ברצועת עזה↑ 75%זה טוב! ממשלה חכמה.↓ 25%Netanyahu rejects Trump’s Gaza plan while quietly implementing it↑ 65%בומבה צור מהחודש: "אני אכניס לכם 150,000 פועלים עזתים. הם נהדרים!↓ 30%Итак, Совет мира Трампа и ХАМАС договорились о плане разоружения организации, спустя десять месяцев после начала прекращения огня между ХАМАСом и Израилем. Верховный представитель Совета мира по секто↑ 75%מבזק↓ 30%טראמפ בפוקס ניוז: "הר המכוש הוא לא בעיה גדולה, נוריד אותו בקלות אם לא תהיה עסקה"↑ 65%בג״צ מבטל פה אחד את החלטת הממשלה לסגור את גלי צה״ל–

J

jpost.com1014–76%↓ 14%

Benjamin Netanyahu rejects Board of Peace Gaza withdrawal proposal before Hamas disarms | The Jerusalem Post↓ 14%Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits IDF outpost near Gaza's Yellow Line | The Jerusalem Post↓ 14%Bezalel Smotrich: Israel 'will return to whole of Gaza,' should 'erase' Oslo Accords | The Jerusalem Post↓ 19%The Board of Peace plan for Gaza: Will it really disempower Hamas? | The Jerusalem Post↓ 20%Two-week ceasefire intended to allow Hamas disarmament, start of peace deal | The Jerusalem Post↓ 20%Israel still follows 15-point framework, even if publicly rejected | The Jerusalem Post↓ 21%Disarming Hamas is the primary hurdle for the Donald Trump plan | The Jerusalem Post↓ 27%How will the Board of Peace implementation plan reshape Gaza? | The Jerusalem Post↑ 76%Read the full text of Board of Peace roadmap for Trump's Gaza peace plan | The Jerusalem Post↑ 70%Israeli-backed militias in Gaza believe Hamas will not disarm despite Board of Peace deal | The Jerusalem Post–

Y

ynet.co.il1013–73%↓ 13%

"הקו הצהוב" זז מערבה - לתוך שכונה בעזה | תמונות הבטונדות, ליד הציר המרכזי↓ 13%נתניהו: ישראל שוללת את 15 הנקודות של מועצת השלום, לא ניסוג בלי פירוק חמאס מכל הנשק↓ 17%"קרע עם טראמפ" ו"נאבק לשרוד": סיקור דחיית המתווה לעזה - והפער מהתוכנית שקיבל נתניהו↓ 22%במועצת השלום דוחים את הצהרת נתניהו: "ישראל מקיימת את 15 הנקודות"↓ 16%מסתמן: נתניהו יטוס לוושינגטון במוצאי השבת↓ 25%טראמפ: מועצת השלום לעזה הגיעה להסכם היסטורי לפירוק מוחלט של חמאס מנשק↓ 25%אם טראמפ יכפה נסיגה מרצועת הביטחון - כך יהיה↑ 73%שינוי הכיוון של מועצת השלום: הוצאת כל הנשק מעזה - ואז נסיגה מוחלטת של צה"ל↓ 30%ליברמן: "מחבלי נוחבה תרגלו פשיטה - הממשלה לא אישרה לצה"ל לתקוף"–"האנשים שהביאו את החטופים": כך יעבוד הפיקוח, ואיך פותרים את אי-האמון בחמאס–

M

middleeasteye.net910–83%↓ 13%

Israel uses sand walls to further encroach in Palestinian territory on Gaza as siege tightens↓ 13%Netanyahu says Israeli forces ‘are not withdrawing from the current lines in Gaza’↓ 11%Board of Peace envoy says Israel not required to withdraw from Gaza↓ 10%Hamas says it will not disarm in Gaza before Israel withdrawal↓ 13%Board of Peace announces 'historic breakthrough' in Gaza ceasefire↑ 83%Hamas says it will not disarm in Gaza before Israel withdrawal↓ 20%Full text: 15-point draft peace plan between Hamas and Israel in Gaza↑ 70%Israel eyes return to Gaza war within months, Channel 12 reports↓ 27%Hamas to hand weapons over to National Committee for the Administration of Gaza if Israeli troops withdraw↑ 73%

A

aljazeera.com99–70%↓ 11%

‘Creeping death’: Israel weaponises ‘Yellow Line’ to annex Gaza↓ 11%Board of Peace says no Israeli withdrawal from Gaza before Hamas disarms↓ 13%Will Israel withdraw from Gaza if Hamas disarms?↓ 18%Israel rejects Trump’s 15-point plan for Gaza↓ 9%Hamas agrees to phased disarmament in Gaza↑ 70%Three-year roadmap proposed for Hamas disarmament in Gaza↑ 70%Gaza Board of Peace announces Hamas disarmament agreement: What we know↓ 25%Trump announces Hamas to disarm paving way for Israel to withdraw from Gaza–World reacts with cautious optimism to Hamas disarmament agreement–

I

israelnationalnews.com58–75%↓ 8%

Board of Peace clarifies: IDF will not leave Yellow Line until Hamas fully disarms↓ 8%Gaza Council of Peace: IDF withdrawal from Gaza only after complete disarmament of the Strip↓ 15%Did Israel quietly give up nearly 10% of Gaza?↑ 75%Report: Israel discussing Gaza pullback despite public pledges↑ 75%Board of Peace: Final plan outlines path toward Palestinian state↑ 65%

B

bbc.com44–28%↓ 6%

حرب غزة: إسرائيل ترفض خطة مجلس السلام، وتؤكد أنه "لا انسحاب إلا بعد نزع سلاح حماس بالكامل" - BBC News عربي↓ 6%مجلس السلام: نزع سلاح حماس قبل انسحاب إسرائيل، وبيان مشترك يدين "الانتهاكات المتواصلة" في غزة - BBC News عربي↓ 14%وزير الدفاع الإسرائيلي يكشف عن وجود "خطط جاهزة" لإخراج الفلسطينيين من قطاع غزة - BBC News عربي↓ 4%حماس پس از توافق با هیئت صلح ترامپ با خلع سلاح موافقت کرد؛ آیا این طرح به سرانجام میرسد؟ - BBC News فارسی↓ 28%

L

lemonde.fr221–72%↓ 21%

Israël « rejette » le plan américain pour Gaza accepté par le Hamas, annonce Benyamin Nétanyahou↓ 21%Bande de Gaza : Donald Trump annonce un accord sur le désarmement du Hamas↑ 72%

T

tehrantimes.com218–25%↓ 18%

Amid broadening Israeli aggression, where is Gaza heading?↓ 18%No disarmament before Israeli Gaza pullout: Hamas↓ 25%

G

gatestoneinstitute.org216–50%↓ 16%

What the Gaza Roadmap Actually Says↓ 16%A Dangerous Deal: Trump's Board of Peace and Hamas–

I

independent.co.uk214–50%↓ 14%

Trump’s Gaza peace plan in tatters after Netanyahu rejects terms for disarming Hamas↓ 14%Hamas says a deal has been reached in Gaza, and other developments in the Middle East–

H

hnaftali.com29–19%↓ 9%

Why Netanyahu Rejected Trump's Gaza Peace Plan↓ 9%Israel Pushes Back: Why Netanyahu Refuses to Withdraw from Lebanon↓ 19%

P

pbs.org29–70%↓ 9%

Netanyahu says Israel will not withdraw from Gaza until Hamas is completely disarmed↓ 9%What's in the proposed deal to disarm Hamas and withdraw Israeli forces from Gaza↑ 70%

A

atlanticcouncil.org10 questions (and expert answers) about the deal to disarm Hamas↓ 22%

A

al-monitor.comHamas agrees to disarm: what are the challenges ahead?↓ 19%

B

bbc.co.ukWhat's in the Gaza peace deal roadmap?↓ 18%

T

theguardian.comFar-right Israeli minister outlines plan for removal of all Palestinians from Gaza↓ 5%

Neutral / unclear (2)

F

france24.comHamas agrees to disarm under Trump ceasefire deal–

T

thehill.comTrump Board of Peace outlines Gaza peace plan implementation steps–

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!

Forecast by komapc · opened Aug 4, 2026 · resolves Sep 19, 2026 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 18% · AI estimate 3% · pending.

Author

komapcAELO 1404

Creation date

Aug 4, 2026, 07:05 AM UTC

Resolution date

Sep 19, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Tags

Conflict Geopolitics Middle East

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!