Ukraine will not launch a direct military attack on Moscow by May 9, 2026.

Ukraine has rejected Russia's unilateral 'Victory Day' truce, citing Moscow's prior violations, while a drone recently struck a Moscow high-rise. Russia has threatened massive retaliation if its May 9 ceasefire is disrupted, and its parade is seen by some as revealing weakness. Kyiv has previously conducted drone attacks on Moscow, but a direct military attack on the capital would represent a significant escalation.