RESOLVED CORRECT
Ukraine will not launch a direct military attack on Moscow by May 9, 2026.
Resolution date
Tags
ConflictGeopoliticsEurope
Ukraine has reiterated its rejection of Russia's 'Victory Day' truce, now citing Russia's alleged violation of a proposed ceasefire 1,820 times, resulting in 26 civilian deaths. Following these accusations, Ukraine has launched long-range strikes deep inside Russia.
Community 87%
You 50%
AI 98%
Resolution
Resolved as correct on
Based on my training data and the explicit instruction that automated news search returned no results for the forecast period (May 6, 2026, to May 9, 2026), there were no credible reports from major international news organizations confirming a direct military attack by Ukrainian forces on Moscow. Such an event would be a significant global incident and would have been widely reported. Therefore, the condition for resolving the forecast as 'YES' (meaning the claim 'Ukraine will not launch a direct military attack on Moscow by May 9, 2026' is true) has been met.
Probability over time
Forecasts History
Will happen3
Won't happen0
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Resolution date
Tags
ConflictGeopoliticsEurope
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