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A new military conflict will begin in Africa before December 3, 2026.

Dec 3, 2026

Community 53%

A new military conflict will begin in Africa before December 3, 2026.

CreatedCreation date

Jun 3, 2026Jun 3, 2026, 11:34 AM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 3, 2026Dec 3, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Context

An African defense technology company is now developing autonomous drone and counter-drone systems tailored for the continent's operating conditions.…

An African defense technology company is now developing autonomous drone and counter-drone systems tailored for the continent's operating conditions. Concurrently, Mali is experiencing renewed coordinated attacks by armed groups targeting army positions and Russian forces.

Last updated: Jul 5, 2026, 10:03 PM UTC

Based on

standardmedia.co.ke

AI estimate

OraculSettled

97%± 4%

TruthMachine Oracle (news-indexer match) · 66 articles

Resolved YES if a new military conflict, defined as sustained armed hostilities between two or more organized groups resulting in at least 25 battle-related deaths, is reported by major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC) to have begun in any African country where such conflict was not ongoing as of June 3, 2026. Resolved NO otherwise.

Community 53%

You 50%

AI 97%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 65 days

Tags

Conflict Geopolitics Africa

Forecasts History

Will happen1

53%

Won't happen0

—

Sources behind the AI estimate(66 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracul, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean78% · will

Press leans toward 'will happen' · 78%

Will happen (18)

A

aljazeera.net1410–95%settling↑ 82%

المعارك بين الجيش الإثيوبي وتيغراي تمتد إلى الحدود السودانيةsettling↑ 82%شرارة تيغراي.. إثيوبيا أمام شبح حرب تتجاوز الحدود↑ 91%بالخرائط الميدانية.. أين يتقدم الجيش في السودان وما جبهات القتال الجديدة؟↓ 10%المسيّرات بشرق السودان.. هل تحقق أهداف الدعم السريع وقوى إقليمية؟↑ 88%على حافة حرب جديدة.. ماذا يجري في إثيوبيا؟↑ 95%انقلاب التحالفات.. تقارب إريتريا وتيغراي ينذر بحرب إقليمية طاحنة↑ 88%تجنيد قسري وانتخابات بلا تيغراي.. هل تنزلق إثيوبيا إلى جولة حرب جديدة؟↑ 83%سلام على ورق.. لماذا يشتعل إقليم تيغراي مجددا؟↑ 83%إقليم تيغراي.. من مملكة أكسوم إلى قلب الصراع الإثيوبي↑ 85%حرب السودان تتحول إلى زلزال يهدد نصف أفريقيا↑ 80%من أديس أبابا إلى الخرطوم.. كيف تفتح مواجهات تيغراي أبواب التصعيد الإقليمي؟↑ 78%خبير عسكري: حرب ثالثة بين إثيوبيا وإريتريا ستكون أكثر تعقيدا↑ 80%اتفاق بريتوريا ومصير أديس أبابا.. هل يُسقط التحالف الجديد آبي أحمد؟–معركة "العُقد الإستراتيجية".. لماذا يصعد الدعم السريع في كردفان والنيل الأزرق؟–

A

allafrica.com138–96%settling↑ 96%

Ethiopia: The Rivalry Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Is Reshaping Tigraysettling↑ 96%Sudan: Chemical Weapons and Regional Interests Confront 'Double Standards'↓ 8%Ethiopia's Foretold War Arrives↑ 88%Africa: All of Africa Today - July 6, 2026↑ 88%East Africa: From Red Sea to Sudan - Why Ethiopia's Instability Risks Destabilizing Horn of Africa↑ 86%Somalia: Rising Tigray Tensions Test African Union↑ 87%Sudan War - a Conflict Sustained By Weapons, Fragmentation, and Diplomatic Inertia↑ 90%Africa: All of Africa Today - September 21, 2026↑ 88%Niger's Failed Coup Is a Warning to the Sahel's Military Rulers - Those With Power Must Keep Their Promises↑ 78%Ethiopia: Tensions Return to Tigray - Fears of a New Civil War↑ 86%Africa: Mounting Fatalities Linked to Militant Islamist Violence in Africa Amid Shifting Tactics↑ 73%Sudan's Ground War Escalates As Rivals Fight for Territory and Legitimacy–Africa: All of Africa Today - September 8, 2026–

GB

Guy Bechor1150–89%↑ 89%

Как выглядят боевые действия в Йемене в 2026?↑ 89%מבזק המלחמה מגיעה למצרים, בנקודה מאוד רגישה↑ 88%טראמפ: אין ספק שנתקוף את הר המכוש↑ 75%מבזק↑ 75%🚨 חדש ודרמטי בג'יפלאנט:↑ 75%תקיפות גם בבושהאר. גורמים אמריקאיים: התקיפות היום עוצמתיות יותר מהתקיפות בלילה הקודם↑ 70%🇾🇪 Пока мы с саудовцами праздновали в Москве, «Ансар Аллах» и Саудия начали новый обмен ударами.↑ 70%Муджтаба Хаменаи: мы обещаем отомстить смерть наших шахидов в двух войнах. Вскоре свободные люди по всему миру приведут этот план в действие.↑ 65%🇾🇪 Кажется «Ансар Аллах» готов вступить в полномасштабную войну с Саудовской Аравией.↑ 65%"The era of restrained responses has ended"↑ 65%דובר משמרות המהפכה האיראנים :–

A

aljazeera.com681–93%settling↑ 93%

What’s triggered the latest violence in Ethiopia?settling↑ 93%Dozens of countries warn of atrocities amid escalation in Sudan’s el-Obeid↑ 87%Ethiopia’s new rebel alliance faces an old problem↑ 91%Ethiopia’s army promises restraint amid fears of new civil war↑ 84%Is Ethiopia on the verge of another civil war as fighting erupts in Tigray?↑ 81%Can Ethiopia’s seven-group rebel alliance challenge Abiy Ahmed?↑ 85%

D

dw.com550–93%settling↑ 88%

Why Eritrea matters as fighting returns to Tigraysettling↑ 88%Ethiopia: Where does the Tigray conflict go from here?↑ 93%Sudan: Fears of atrocities as RSF surrounds key city↑ 82%Fears of renewed conflict in Ethiopia↑ 67%Can US 'airstrikes' stop JNIM's insurgency in Mali?–

E

ecfr.eu373–81%↑ 81%

After Ukraine: The peace dividend Africa does not want – European Council on Foreign Relations↑ 81%Shoring up the Red Sea: Why the next crisis may begin in the Horn of Africa – European Council on Foreign Relations↑ 81%Down and out from Rabat to Cairo: The Iran war and North African instability – European Council on Foreign Relations↑ 73%

T

tagesschau.de284–91%settling↑ 91%

Kämpfe in Tigray-Region im Norden Äthiopiens eskalierensettling↑ 91%Angst vor dem nächsten Blutbad im Sudan↑ 84%

Y

ynet.co.il290–91%↑ 90%

אתיופיה כבשה עיר אסטרטגית מהמורדים - ומאשימה את מצרים: "לא היו משיגים דבר לבד"↑ 90%"ברית מורדים" באתיופיה להדחת רה"מ: נמל תעופה נכבש, חשש מחידוש מלחמת האזרחים↑ 91%

L

lemonde.frEn Ethiopie, après le déclenchement d’offensives par plusieurs groupes rebelles, le pays au bord de la « guerre totale »settling↑ 95%

S

semafor.comNew Tigray offensive ends four year ceasefiresettling↑ 93%

T

theguardian.comFears of return to war as Tigray rebels launch offensive against Ethiopian army↑ 90%

B

bbc.comحرب السودان: مسيّرات تضرب الدمازين وسط اتساع القتال وتحذيرات من خطر المجاعة - BBC News عربي↑ 90%

J

jns.orgEritrea’s proxy war against Ethiopia↑ 89%

F

foreignpolicy.comEthiopia Returns to Civil Warsettling↑ 89%

I

independent.co.ukEthiopia is at risk of a wider war. Here’s what you need to know↑ 86%

M

middleeasteye.netUN calls on RSF to cease imminent offensive on Sudan’s el-Obeid↑ 85%

R

responsiblestatecraft.orgTrump's quick hits allow for AFRICOM comeback on continent↑ 83%

T

thehill.comFrom Ebola to conflict: Risks rise and the US is less able to respond↑ 79%

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Forecast by komapc · opened Jun 3, 2026 · resolves Dec 3, 2026 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 53% · AI estimate 97% · open for forecasts.

Author

komapcAELO 1404

Creation date

Jun 3, 2026, 11:34 AM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 3, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Tags

Conflict Geopolitics Africa

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!