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DAATAN
Dec 3, 2026
Community 53%

A new military conflict will begin in Africa before December 3, 2026.

Created
Jun 3, 2026
Resolves
Dec 3, 2026
Tags
ConflictGeopoliticsAfrica
An African defense technology company is now developing autonomous drone and counter-drone systems tailored for the continent's operating conditions. Concurrently, Mali is experiencing renewed coordinated attacks by armed groups targeting army positions and Russian forces.
50%You
Community 53%
You 50%
AI 76%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 136 days

Probability over time

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Forecasts History

Will happen1
K
komapcAuthor
53%
Won't happen0

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Sources behind the AI estimate(10 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean81% · will
Press leans toward 'will happen' · 81%

Will happen (9)

E
ecfr.eu2↑ 81%
After Ukraine: The peace dividend Africa does not want – European Council on Foreign Relations↑ 62%Down and out from Rabat to Cairo: The Iran war and North African instability – European Council on Foreign Relations↑ 45%
A
allafrica.comAfrica: All of Africa Today - July 6, 2026↑ 88%
A
aljazeera.comDozens of countries warn of atrocities amid escalation in Sudan’s el-Obeid↑ 87%
M
middleeasteye.netUN calls on RSF to cease imminent offensive on Sudan’s el-Obeid↑ 85%
T
tagesschau.deAngst vor dem nächsten Blutbad im Sudan↑ 84%
A
aljazeera.netتجنيد قسري وانتخابات بلا تيغراي.. هل تنزلق إثيوبيا إلى جولة حرب جديدة؟↑ 83%
D
dw.comSudan: Fears of atrocities as RSF surrounds key city↑ 82%
T
thehill.comFrom Ebola to conflict: Risks rise and the US is less able to respond↑ 79%
KS
Ksenia SvetlovaМуджтаба Хаменаи: мы обещаем отомстить смерть наших шахидов в двух войнах. Вскоре свободные люди по всему миру приведут этот план в действие.↑ 65%

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Forecast by komapc · opened Jun 3, 2026 · resolves Dec 3, 2026 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 53% · AI estimate 76% · open for forecasts.