What are the chances that A Jewish settlement, official or unofficial, will be established in Lebanese territory by December 31, 2026? As of Aug 21, 2026: the AI estimate is 48%; the community estimate is 25%. · Updated Aug 21, 2026
includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 132 days
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Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.
Will happen (4)
Won't happen (2)
Neutral / unclear (1)
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Forecast by komapc · opened Jul 8, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 3 forecasters · community consensus 25% · AI estimate 48% · open for forecasts.
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