Skip to content
DAATAN
Jul 22, 2031
Community 73%

Iran will initiate a direct military strike against Israel before Israel initiates a direct military strike against Iran by July 22, 2031.

Created
Jul 22, 2026
Resolves
Jul 22, 2031
Tags
ConflictGeopoliticsIranIsrael
The Middle East is experiencing heightened tensions, with the US threatening to expand military strikes against Iran, potentially targeting nuclear sites. Iran has responded by claiming strikes on US-linked targets in Jordan and Bahrain, and has threatened to attack US and allied interests if its nuclear sites are hit. An Iranian official has also claimed to have narrowly escaped an Israeli assassination strike, while Israel is reportedly bracing for possible retaliation from Tehran if US attacks on Iran escalate.
50%You
Community 73%
You 50%
AI 16%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 1827 days

Probability over time

Drag across the chart to zoom · double-click to reset

Forecasts History

Will happen1
K
komapcAuthor
73%
Won't happen0

—

Sources behind the AI estimate(10 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean29% · will
Press leans toward 'won't happen' · 71%

Won't happen (2)

HN
Hananya Naftali9↓ 98%
סנטקום: השלמנו גל תקיפות נוסף באיראן. על הפרק - מרכזי פיקוד צבאיים איראניים ואתרים לשיגור טילים ומל"טים↓ 95%Trump on Iran: "We're going to hit them very hard tonight. Very hard tomorrow night. The night after."↓ 60%טראמם מאיים: "מנקודה זו ואילך על כל ירי של איראן על ספינה שתעבור במצר הורמוז - נפציץ גשר או תחנת כוח אחת"↓ 70%❗️Администрация Трампа сообщила израильскому руководству, что намерена в ближайшие дни направить в Израиль десятки дополнительных самолётов-заправщиков в преддверии возможного расширения боевых действ↓ 65%Israel is ready on high alert.↓ 50%צבא ארה״ב מודיע: התחלנו בתקיפות באיראן↓ 50%https://www.c14.co.il/article/1629029↓ 60%Two American soldiers were killed and one is missing after an Iranian missile strike on a U.S. base in Jordan.↑ 40%Escalation with Iran - Senior Israeli officials: A full-scale war with Iran is possible in the coming days.↑ 30%
I
israelnationalnews.comReport: US informed Israel it plans to escalate strikes on Iran in the coming days↓ 70%

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!

Forecast by komapc · opened Jul 22, 2026 · resolves Jul 22, 2031 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 73% · AI estimate 16% · open for forecasts.