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komapc

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@komapc

JoinedFebruary 2026
All65Geopolitics36Conflict20Middle East15politics13Technology11Economy7Business7Sports6
Skill Rating

1715

± 232 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

Performance

ELO Rating1545global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1715global · ± 232 uncertainty
Brier Score · Middle East0.2132 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy · Middle East67%6 resolved
ROI+1.79RS / resolved prediction
AI Score · Middle East+0.471 scored
RS · Middle East+10.8
Reputation72.3 RSglobal · pool-based

Glicko-2 Skill History · Middle East

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created(14)participated(15)resolved(6)
Correct
2GeopoliticsConflict

A memorandum of understanding (MoU) or a peace deal between Iran and the USA will be officially signed by June 20, 2026.

2
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3AI: 95%politicsGeopolitics

The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026.

3
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2AI: 48%politicsLaw

The death penalty will be fully abolished in Israel by May 18, 2031.

2
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1AI: 60±12%GeopoliticsConflict

Israel will establish a long-term military occupation of a part of southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

1
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AI: 40%GeopoliticsConflict

The Houthi movement will lose control of at least one significant territory currently under its control by December 31, 2026.

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Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict

The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.

3
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2AI: 80±5%GeopoliticsConflict

The Israeli army will maintain a presence in Lebanese territory until at least December 31, 2026.

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2
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4GeopoliticsConflict

The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.

4
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1GeopoliticsConflict

The United States will deploy ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.

1
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GeopoliticsMiddle East

Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

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1AI: 62%GeopoliticsMiddle East

Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026.

1
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Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict

Zero rockets will be fired from any entity towards Israeli territory by the end of March 8, 2026.

1
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Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict

Bat Yam will not experience any rocket or missile strikes on March 4, 2026.

1
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komapcA
Correct
1GeopoliticsConflict

The United States will conduct military strikes against Iran by March 31, 2026.

1
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komapcA