komapc

@komapc

JoinedFebruary 2026

All112 Geopolitics62 Conflict35 politics29 Middle East27 Technology18 Israel14 Elections12 Business11

Skill Rating

1782

± 132 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

created(23)participated(27)resolved(9)

AI: 58±9%Geopolitics Middle East

Israel and Lebanon will sign a formal agreement on security or border arrangements by November 6, 2026.

komapc

1AI: 38±7%Geopolitics Conflict

The IDF will begin withdrawing forces beyond the Yellow Line in Gaza before September 20, 2026.

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1AI: 49±6%Geopolitics Conflict

The United States will conduct a ground invasion of Kharg Island by December 31, 2026

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AI: 58±9%Geopolitics Middle East

Oman will join the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026.

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1AI: 67±3%Geopolitics Middle East

Rockets or drones are launched directly from Israel to Iran, or from Iran to Israel, by 31 August 2026.

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3AI: 49±13%Geopolitics Middle East

A Jewish settlement, official or unofficial, will be established in Lebanese territory by December 31, 2026.

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1AI: 34±4%Geopolitics Energy

Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to pre-conflict normal levels by September 30, 2026.

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2AI: 59±18%Geopolitics Middle East

Lebanon will officially recognize Israel by December 31, 2026.

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3AI: 38±4%politics Elections

Likud will secure more than 33 seats in the next Israeli Knesset election by December 31, 2026.

komapc

Correct

2Geopolitics Conflict

A memorandum of understanding (MoU) or a peace deal between Iran and the USA will be officially signed by June 20, 2026.

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3AI: 63±10%politics Geopolitics

The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026.

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2AI: 54±27%politics Law

The death penalty will be fully abolished in Israel by May 18, 2031.

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1AI: 64±5%Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will establish a long-term military occupation of a part of southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

komapc

AI: 60±5%Geopolitics Conflict

The Houthi movement will lose control of at least one significant territory currently under its control by December 31, 2026.

komapc

Correct

3Geopolitics Conflict

The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.

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2AI: 74±4%Geopolitics Conflict

The Israeli army will maintain a presence in Lebanese territory until at least December 31, 2026.

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4AI: 57±8%Geopolitics Conflict

The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.

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1AI: 56±3%Geopolitics Conflict

The United States will deploy ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.

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AI: 54±27%Geopolitics Middle East

Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

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1AI: 97±4%Geopolitics Middle East

Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026.

komapc

Performance

ELO Rating1439global (head-to-head)

Glicko-2μ 1782global · ± 132 uncertainty

Brier Score · Middle East0.1825 scored · lower is better

Accuracy · Middle East67%9 resolved

Wtd. Peer Score—need 1 more peer-scored

Peer Score · Middle East-0.022 scored

ROI+4.19RS / resolved prediction

AI Score · Middle East+0.953 scored

RS · Middle East+37.8

Reputation104.3 RSglobal · pool-based

Glicko-2 Skill History · Middle East

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