What are the chances that Donald Trump will visit Israel in 2026?

As of Oct 3, 2026: the evidence estimate is 40%.

Dec 31, 2026

Community 50%

Donald Trump will visit Israel in 2026.

CreatedCreation date

Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026, 11:49 AM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2026Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Context

This prediction concerns whether Donald Trump will make a visit to Israel at any point during the calendar year 2026.…

This prediction concerns whether Donald Trump will make a visit to Israel at any point during the calendar year 2026. The current context does not provide specific information regarding his travel plans to Israel.

Based on

polymarket.com

Evidence estimate

Oracul

44%± 22%

TruthMachine Oracle (news-indexer match) · 17 articles

Community 50%

You 50%

AI 40%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 88 days

Sources behind the evidence estimate(17 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracul, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean65% · will

Will happen (7)

aa.com.tr250–91%↑ 91%

Trump cancels planned strikes on Iran to allow for talks on peace deal↑ 91%2026 US midterm elections on the horizon: Who will win Congress in November?–

kikar.co.il286–90%↑ 86%

"כולכם לא אוהבים את ביבי?" | הציטוטים החריגים שלא נחשפו מפ..↑ 86%צי מטוסים פרטיים בדרך לוושינגטון | גדולי האדמו"רים ימריאו ..↑ 90%

HaTzel270–80%↑ 70%

Israel Just Saved Trump's Life https://mailchi.mp/hananyanaftali/israel-just-saved-trumps-life↑ 70%הנשיא טראמפ בראיון לנתן גוטמן בכאן חדשות: "ישראל לא צריכה לדאוג מחידוש המלחמה באיראן. אתה יודע למה? כי אני הנשיא. לישראל אין מה לחשוש כי אני הנשיא ואני אדאג לישראל"↑ 80%

jpost.comBenjamin Netanyahu, Donald Trump to discuss Iran and postwar Middle East order | The Jerusalem Post↑ 88%

srugim.co.ilהמתנגד לראש הממשלה בהודאה חריגה: ״זה טוב שנתניהו יהיה בראש״ - סרוגים↑ 83%

theguardian.comNetanyahu and Zelenskyy meet Trump before Lindsey Graham funeral service – US politics live↑ 83%

aljazeera.netبين شبح الحرب والغطاء الدبلوماسي.. هكذا تقرأ طهران زيارة نتنياهو لواشنطن↑ 83%

Won't happen (1)

tehrantimes.comWashington and Tel Aviv face global revolt at 81st UN General Assembly↓ 11%

Neutral / unclear (5)

maariv.co.il250–50%–

השעון מתקתק: טראמפ לא מוכן לתת לפוליטיקה בישראל לעצור את המהלכים באזור–טראמפ מאשר את פרסום "מעריב" - ונמנע מתמיכה פומבית בנתניהו בבחירות–

ynetnews.comTrump says could support a candidate in upcoming Israeli elections–

upi.comTrump says Hamas agrees to disarm; Israel yet to respond - UPI.com–

independent.co.ukTrump says Greenland will be under US control by the time he leaves office–

ynet.co.ilטראמפ לא שולל שיתמוך במועמד בבחירות בישראל: "הכי ראוי שלא אעשה זאת"–

Author·

komapcA·ELO 1404

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Forecast by komapc · opened Aug 21, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 0 forecasters · evidence estimate 40% · open for forecasts.

Author

komapcAELO 1404

Creation date

Aug 21, 2026, 11:49 AM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!