What are the chances that Israel and Syria will normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

As of Oct 5, 2026: the evidence estimate is 52%; the community estimate is 38%.

Dec 31, 2026

Community 38%

Israel and Syria will normalize relations by December 31, 2026.

CreatedCreation date

Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 AM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2026Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Context

Recent Israeli airstrikes on a Syrian airbase in August 2026, reportedly to counter Turkish military expansion, have drawn international criticism for violating Syrian sovereignty.…

Recent Israeli airstrikes on a Syrian airbase in August 2026, reportedly to counter Turkish military expansion, have drawn international criticism for violating Syrian sovereignty. Israel has also sent messages to Syria regarding Turkish presence, while an Israeli Chief of Staff visited forces in southern Syria, indicating continued military engagement rather than diplomatic progress.

Last updated: Aug 21, 2026, 12:01 PM UTC

Based on

polymarket.com

Evidence estimate

Oracul

57%± 9%

TruthMachine Oracle (news-indexer match) · 33 articles

Community 38%

You 50%

AI 52%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 88 days

Forecasts History

Will happen0

—

Won't happen2

komapcAuthor

35%

Daniel Knut

40%

Sources behind the evidence estimate(33 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracul, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean57% · will

Will happen (4)

srugim.co.il288–95%↑ 95%

למרות החשש בישראל: ארה"ב במהלך לטובת סוריה - סרוגים↑ 95%הסורים מודיעים: משלחת לפירוק הגרעין תגיע תוך ימים - סרוגים↑ 88%

newsletter.amitsegal.net229–75%↑ 75%

Trump Gets the Nuclear Dust↑ 75%It’s Noon in Israel: Battlefield Syria↓ 29%

tehrantimes.comThe new Syria: From terror lists to Israeli intimidation↑ 90%

atlanticcouncil.orgA revolutionary coffee: The impact of Syria’s removal from the terrorism sponsor list↑ 78%

Won't happen (7)

aljazeera.net713–87%↓ 13%

خرائط وصور فضائية.. كيف تبدو التوغلات الإسرائيلية في سوريا منذ سقوط الأسد؟↓ 13%رفع سوريا من قائمة الإرهاب الأمريكية.. كيف ومتى تظهر التأثيرات الاقتصادية؟↑ 87%سوريا الجديدة تتمسك ببناء جيشها رغم الضغوط والتوغلات الإسرائيلية↓ 15%سوريا وتركيا وإسرائيل.. كواليس الصدام المباشر ورسائل "الخطوط الحمر"↓ 20%الشرع في حوار شامل.. ماذا قال عن إسرائيل و7 أكتوبر و11 سبتمبر والترشح للرئاسة؟–المفاوضات السورية الإسرائيلية.. كيف حركها التصعيد وماذا يريد الطرفان منها؟–بعد اجتماع عمّان.. هل بات الاتفاق السوري الإسرائيلي ممكنا؟–

Kirill Semenov710–85%↓ 10%

מעכשיו - "סוריה" היא ישות אויב, והמשטר שלה הוא מסוכן, אלקאעדה עם חומרים גרעיניים. ישראל לא רק שלא תאפשר לנאצים הטורקים להיכנס ל"סוריה", יש לה חובה לחסל את הגרעין של אלקאעדה ולהפיל את המשטר.↓ 10%שר החוץ הסורי בראיון לרויטרס: צופה שיתחדשו בקרוב השיחות עם ישראל על הסכם ביטחון↑ 85%Министр иностранных дел Сирии Асаад аш-Шейбани в интервью Reuters: Мы ожидаем скорого возобновления переговоров с Израилем по поводу соглашения в области безопасности.↑ 85%Сирия была официально исключена из американского черного списка государств-спонсоров террора, а это значит, что скоро в Дамаск рекой потекут многомиллиардные инвестиции. Саудовская Аравия построит два↑ 84%Israel recalibrates Syria policy, explores path to security deal↑ 75%לאחר התקיפה: ישראל וסוריה חידשו את המו"מ על הסכם ביטחוני↑ 80%🇸🇾🇮🇱 Согласно газете «Гаарец», Израиль получил четыре крупных удара в Сирии.↑ 75%

jpost.com613–90%↓ 13%

Benjamin Netanyahu looks to Russia playbook to handle Turkey amid Syria tensions | The Jerusalem Post↓ 13%US removes Syria from terror sponsor list, complicating Israeli strategy | The Jerusalem Post↑ 85%IDF attack on Syria's Abu al-Duhur airbase may reinvigorate talks with Damascus | The Jerusalem Post↑ 90%Israel struck Syria after Turkey crossed military red line, ambassador tells Pos | The Jerusalem Post↑ 69%Replacing Russia: How Turkey’s growing role in Syria could threaten Israel | The Jerusalem Post–Diplomacy grows essential to combat Turkey's growing strength | The Jerusalem Post–

ynet.co.il321–84%↓ 21%

המסר הישראלי לסוריה, ומתקפת הבכיר הטורקי: "העוינות - קרש הצלה פוליטי לנתניהו"↓ 21%שר החוץ הסורי: לא בוטחים בישראל, אך מצפים שהמו"מ יתחדש↑ 84%ארה"ב הסירה את סוריה מרשימת המדינות התומכות בטרור↑ 73%

middleeasteye.netIsraeli opinion article says Turkey's Nato protection does not apply to troops in Syria↓ 29%

aljazeera.comNetanyahu warns Israel will not tolerate Turkish military presence in Syria↓ 20%

dw.comWhy is Israel's military presence growing in Syria?↓ 17%

Neutral / unclear (1)

aa.com.trSyria-Israel talks near 90% agreement before Israel pulled back: Sharaa–

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Forecast by komapc · opened Aug 21, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 2 forecasters · community consensus 38% · evidence estimate 52% · open for forecasts.

Author

komapcAELO 1404

Creation date

Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 AM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

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