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Retro Analysis

Israel and Saudi Arabia will normalize relations before 2027.

Dec 31, 2026

Community 50%

Israel and Saudi Arabia will normalize relations before 2027.

CreatedCreation date

Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026, 11:55 AM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2026Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Context

Recent reports indicate that Saudi textbooks have softened language regarding Israel and Jerusalem, suggesting a potential shift in relations.…

Recent reports indicate that Saudi textbooks have softened language regarding Israel and Jerusalem, suggesting a potential shift in relations. Additionally, Israeli military censorship recently allowed the publication of information about closed contacts between regional representatives discussing a possible peace agreement with Israel.

Based on

Evidence estimate

Oracul

68%± 8%

TruthMachine Oracle (news-indexer match) · 30 articles

Resolved as 'Yes' if Israel and Saudi Arabia formally establish diplomatic relations, including the exchange of ambassadors or signing of a peace treaty, as reported by major international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP, AFP). Otherwise, resolved as 'No'.

Community 50%

You 50%

AI 68%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 88 days

Tags

Geopolitics Middle East

Sources behind the evidence estimate(30 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracul, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean68% · will

Press leans toward 'will happen' · 68%

Will happen (11)

Y

ynet.co.il518–86%↑ 86%

לנצל את המצוקה הסעודית↑ 86%השותפה הסמויה של מדינות ערב: כך חזרה ישראל להיות המדינה שמסתירים↓ 18%מחיר מדיני בבקשה↑ 83%דרך צבא ארה"ב: "ישראל ככל הנראה מסייעת לסעודיה מול החות'ים"↑ 72%להרחיב ולחזק את הסכמי אברהם ולהכניס את סעודיה–

J

jpost.com483–88%↑ 83%

Saudi normalization shaped the thinking behind October 7 | The Jerusalem Post↑ 83%Houthi attacks may deepen security ties between Israel, Saudi Arabia | The Jerusalem Post↑ 88%Houthi attacks deepen Saudi-Israeli security cooperation | The Jerusalem Post↑ 86%Six years on, Israel, UAE, Bahrain commemorate signing of Abraham Accords | The Jerusalem Post↑ 87%

M

middleeasteye.net379–90%↑ 88%

Trump says US-Saudi 'civil' nuclear deal conditional on joining Abraham Accords↑ 88%Netanyahu's office confirms visit to UAE, as Israeli media reports attendance of Arab countries in talks↑ 79%Trump backtracks on Saudi nuclear deal, demands Israel normalisation↑ 90%

A

aljazeera.com291–93%↑ 91%

US-Saudi nuclear deal hinges on normalisation with Israel↑ 91%Trump says ‘it’s time’ for Saudi Arabia to normalise ties with Israel↑ 93%

E

en.globes.co.ilTrump links nuclear deal to Saudis joining Abraham Accords↑ 94%

T

timesofindia.indiatimes.comInside US-Saudi nuclear deal: Trump opens critical door in Middle East; why Pakistan is biggest loser↑ 90%

A

al-monitor.comTrump says he won't proceed with nuclear deal unless Saudis join Abraham Accords↑ 89%

A

azatutyun.amԱՄՆ-Սաուդյան Արաբիա համաձայնագիր․ թագավորությանը հնարավորություն կունենա միջուկային ռեակտորներ կառուցելsettling↑ 88%

J

jns.orgRiyadh is learning the difference between a defense pact and a strategic partner↑ 86%

EC

Edy Cohenإيدي كوهين אדי כהן 🇮🇱 (@EdyCohen) on X↑ 75%

H

hnaftali.com Netanyahu UAE Visit: The Secret Abu Dhabi Trip the Media Buried↑ 70%

Won't happen (3)

MB

Marianna Belenkaya316–75%↓ 16%

🇵🇰🇹🇷🇸🇦 На самом деле то, о чем пишет ув. Алексей Наумов это уже прошлое. А действия Израиля как раз и стали тем триггером, который запустил формирование Эр-Риядского пакта.↓ 16%🇮🇱🇸🇦 Quiet changes can matter.↑ 75%Неназванная страна региона советовала другой подписать мир с Израилем, а затем начать войну — 12 телеканал–

R

responsiblestatecraft.orgWhen Saudi Arabia realizes it's backed the wrong horse↓ 16%

W

warontherocks.comWhy Trump’s Israel Normalization Demand May Kill the Saudi Nuclear Deal↓ 9%

Neutral / unclear (4)

S

srugim.co.ilתפנית ביחסים? סעודיה מבקשת מישראל עזרה נגד החות'ים - סרוגים–

I

independent.co.ukTrump says Saudi Arabia must recognise Israel for nuclear deal to go ahead–

F

fortune.comTrump signed a nuclear deal with Saudi, then rewrote its terms on social media to include Israel | Fortune–

F

foreignpolicy.comTrump Is Triggering a Middle East Nuclear Arms Race–

Author·

komapcA·ELO 1404

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Forecast by komapc · opened Aug 21, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 0 forecasters · evidence estimate 68% · open for forecasts.

Author

komapcAELO 1404

Creation date

Aug 21, 2026, 11:55 AM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Tags

Geopolitics Middle East

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!