Sep 30, 2026
Community 50%
Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to pre-conflict normal levels by September 30, 2026.
Creation date
Jul 5, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC
Resolution date
Sep 30, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Polymarket
47%
View on Polymarket →
Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is currently recovering, with daily crossings increasing and oil prices falling due to increased supply. However, shipping confidence remains fragile, with some vessels still performing U-turns or detours, and traffic is reported to be far below pre-conflict levels. Qatar has announced the full resumption of its maritime activities, but Iran continues to deploy forces and there is ongoing debate regarding the Strait's future.
Community 50%
You 50%
AI 43%
Probability over time
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Sources behind the AI estimate(16 publications)
Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.
Press lean41% · will
Press leans toward 'won't happen' · 59%Will happen (3)
Won't happen (4)
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Forecast by komapc · opened Jul 5, 2026 · resolves Sep 30, 2026 · 0 forecasters · AI estimate 43% · open for forecasts.
Author
K
komapcAReputation 99Creation date
Jul 5, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC
Resolution date
Sep 30, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Polymarket
47%
View on Polymarket →
Discussion (0)
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!