Dec 31, 2026

Community 20%

President Trump will order the deployment of US ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.

CreatedCreation date

Apr 17, 2026Apr 17, 2026, 07:30 PM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2026Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Probability over time

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Forecasts History

Will happen0

—

Won't happen1

komapcAuthor

20%

Sources behind the AI estimate(200 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean62% · will

Will happen (25)

Marianna Belenkaya43↑ 85%

Trump on Iran: "We're going to hit them very hard tonight. Very hard tomorrow night. The night after."↑ 70%В продолжение темы выше:↑ 55%דיווח בארה"ב: ארה"ב על סף חזרה למלחמה כוללת עם איראן↑ 50%Trump reportedly said the U.S. will "take over Hormuz and get paid for it… we're taking everything from them, oil, gold, land, money. They broke the deal… we'll hit the Iranians very hard, tonight too↑ 50%Trump saying the ceasefire between the US and Iran is finished and that the US will "probably hit them hard again tonight".↑ 50%Этим утром вооруженные силы США заявили об ударах по 140 военным целям в Иране. В ответ Иран наносит удары по американским базам на территории соседних арабских стран.↑ 60%BREAKING: President Trump says he thinks the ceasefire with Iran is over.↑ 45%ברק רביד מפרסם שממשל טראמפ הודיע לישראל כי בכוונתו לשלוח בימים הקרובים לישראל עשרות מטוסי תדלוק נוספים, לקראת אפשרות של הרחבת הלחימה נגד איראן↑ 50%פיקוד מרכז ארה"ב: כוחותינו תקפו מערכות הגנה אווירית צבאיות של איראן, אתרי מכ"ם חופיים, ציוד טילים וכטב"מים↑ 50%The U.S. military is wiping out Iranian terror infrastructure in a massive wave of strikes.↑ 50%❗️Администрация Трампа сообщила израильскому руководству, что намерена в ближайшие дни направить в Израиль десятки дополнительных самолётов-заправщиков в преддверии возможного расширения боевых действ↑ 45%Escalation with Iran - Senior Israeli officials: A full-scale war with Iran is possible in the coming days.↑ 40%BREAKING: The U.S. just launched massive strikes on over 80 Iranian targets after Iran attacked ships in the Strait of Hormuz.↑ 40%President Trump declares the ceasefire is OVER! https://www.hnaftali.com/post/the-ceasefire-is-dead-why-the-latest-u-s-strikes-on-iran-change-everything↑ 40%The US just launched major airstrikes against Iran, hitting around 90 targets.↑ 40%Ночью США нанесли девятую серию ударов по Ирану за последние девять дней. Атака последовала вскоре после того, как США объявили о гибели троих своих военнослужащих в результате иранских ударов.↑ 38%Iranian state agency Tasnim and IRGC-linked channels announced Iran has cancelled the memorandum of understanding.↑ 40%תיעוד משוגע מהתקיפות האיראניות על הבסיסים האמריקאיים בירדן (מהם נהרגו שני חיילי צבא ארה״ב אתמול)↑ 40%Two American soldiers were killed and one is missing after an Iranian missile strike on a U.S. base in Jordan.↑ 40%Iran's IRGC declares all US bases in the region "legitimate targets," claims coordinated strikes on Gulf installations↑ 40%The U.S. eportedly expanding its strikes against the Islamic regime in Iran, and struck near Tehran.↑ 40%BREAKING: A statement posted on Senator Lindsey Graham's official X account says that he has passed away!!↓ 40%КСИР заявил, что атаковал и уничтожил базу американских ракет наземного базирования в Кувейте.↑ 40%CENTCOM just confirmed: dozens of Iranian military targets hit.↑ 40%CENTCOM forces successfully struck a submarine and ship maintenance facility in Iran. Three Corsair unmanned surface vessels hit the port at Bandar Abbas Naval Base, marking the first time American fo↑ 40%США нанесли новую волну ударов по Ирану↑ 40%The ceasefire with Iran is officially over.↑ 40%דיווח אמריקאי: "ארה"ב תפתח הלילה במתקפה רחבת היקף על איראן".↑ 40%סנטקום: השלמנו גל תקיפות נוסף באיראן. על הפרק - מרכזי פיקוד צבאיים איראניים ואתרים לשיגור טילים ומל"טים↑ 30%המתקפה הקטלנית של המשטר האיראני על הבסיס האמריקאי ב"ירדן": שני חיילים אמריקאים הרוגים, אחד נעדר וכמה פצועים.↑ 35%ארה״ב פתחה בגל תקיפות נוסף באיראן; במקביל - איראן מפרסמת תיעוד שלטענתם מראה תקיפת ספינה אמריקנית בטילים בצפון האוקיינוס ההודי↑ 35%Шестая волна атак США по Ирану. Трамп угрожает нанести удар по электростанциям↑ 35%Корпус стражей исламской революции Ирана заявил, что уничтожил 85 американских военных объектов в штаб-квартире 5-го флота в Бахрейне и на базе Али аль-Салем в Кувейте, используя ракеты и беспилотники↑ 35%מבזק↑ 35%מבזק↑ 35%Watch my live report on the FATAL mistake Iran made >> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUuKFvUuV2w↑ 33%טראמפ ממשיך לאיים: על כל הרב של חייל אמריקאי - איראן תשלם פי כמה וכמה↑ 30%Israel's Ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon: ↑ 40%Трамп обещает новые мощные удары по Ирану сегодня и завтра и не отвечает на вопрос, присоединится ли Израиль к ударам.↑ 30%דיווחים על פיצוצים בבנדר עבאס שבדרום המדינה - שעות אחרי איומי טראמפ לתקוף שוב הלילה–BREAKING: U.S. forces launch major wave of strikes against Iranian military targets.–סוכנות הידיעות האיראנית מיזאן: שלושה חברי משמרות המהפכה נהרגו בתקיפות אמריקאיות היום–США девятую ночь подряд атакуют Иран. Число американских потерь растет–

thehill.com20↑ 75%

Trump says Iran talks will continue, but ceasefire 'is over!'↑ 50%Restarting the clock in war with Iran↑ 63%US military launches strikes in Iran after servicemember killed in Iraq↑ 50%Trump says US will ‘take out’ Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility↑ 50%Trump formally informs Congress of Iran war resumption↑ 50%4 risks facing Trump if he returns to all-out war with Iran↑ 57%Trump administration officials head to Qatar for Iran talks↑ 44%Trump back at Day 1 as Iran war rages again↓ 57%Trump says he will give primetime speech Thursday amid flare-up with Iran↑ 60%US strikes Iran as Trump says truce 'over'↑ 40%Live updates: US hits Iran energy targets, bridges; Fallout persists after Trump election speech↑ 45%Ret. Gen. Kellogg calls for ground troops in Iran, new negotiating team↑ 40%Trump to Iran: 'We're going to hit them very hard'↑ 40%Trump to attend dignified transfer of US soldiers killed in Iran strikes↑ 38%Trump threatens to launch 'big attack' on Iran, resume naval blockade↑ 37%Trump threatens Iran’s existence amid fragile ceasefire–Trump’s big risks in returning to all-out war–Senate votes to direct Trump to withdraw troops from Iran conflict; four Republicans break ranks–Trump says interim deal with Iran 'over' after strikes–US military attacks Iran after Trump’s threat of wider strikes–

jpost.com12↑ 79%

aa.com.tr12↑ 75%

US to hit Iran 'very hard' over next 2 days, Trump says↑ 50%Trump warns Iran it will pay ‘many times over’ for any US troops killed↑ 40%Trump warns Iran will pay ‘many times over’ for any US troops killed↑ 40%US forces struck Iran hard in response to killing of American service members↑ 40%US forces strike Iranian naval base with sea drones for first time: CENTCOM↑ 40%Trump claims Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei '90% gone'↑ 40%US launches new strikes on Iran hours after warning from Trump↑ 40%US launches second wave of strikes against Iran: CENTCOM↑ 40%US to send more refueling aircraft as Trump weighs wider Iran war: Report↑ 35%Trump says Iran wants to 'settle so badly'↑ 35%Trump says US to hit Iran's power plants, bridges next week unless Tehran returns to talks↑ 35%Trump warns 1,000 missiles 'locked and loaded' if Iran tries to assassinate him↑ 25%

aljazeera.net11↑ 82%

هل تتدحرج واشنطن وطهران نحو الحرب الشاملة؟↑ 64%ترمب وهجوم إيران الملغى.. تسريبات عن آخر محادثات البيت الأبيض وقناة "منع الاشتباك"↓ 64%عاجل | ترمب لسي إن بي سي: نجحنا في إخراج 22 ناقلة نفط عملاقة في ليلة واحدة تحت حراسة مشددة وصمت لاسلكي كامل↓ 50%كيف سترد إيران على أي إنزال بري أمريكي على أراضيها؟↑ 54%ترامب يلوّح بالسيطرة على جزيرة خارك.. ما أهميتها بالنسبة لإيران؟↑ 45%تدمير الجسور والمنشآت المدنية.. ما أهداف الخطة الأمريكية الجديدة بإيران؟↑ 54%ترمب يرفض تحديد مهلة وطهران تؤكد: لا تفاوض والأولوية للدفاع↑ 42%أكسيوس: واشنطن ترسل طائرات تزويد بالوقود إلى إسرائيل تحسبا لتوسيع العمليات ضد إيران↑ 39%من الردع إلى "الاستنزاف المفتوح".. هل غيّر ترمب عقيدته العسكرية ضد إيران؟↑ 35%واشنطن تحشد المزيد من طائرات التزود بالوقود في إسرائيل↑ 33%عبر الخريطة التفاعلية.. تفاصيل الضربات المتبادلة بين إيران وأمريكا–

al-monitor.com9↑ 84%

Exclusive-US strikes on Iran strengthen Trump's options for new escalation, officials say↑ 67%Trump says Iran ceasefire 'is over'↑ 64%Trump on Iran: US will probably hit them again Wednesday night↑ 55%US military is conducting fresh strikes on Iran↑ 35%Trump says there will either be a deal with Iran or US will 'finish the job'–Trump says US to strike Iran's Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site↑ 30%US says it has completed its latest wave of strikes on Iran↑ 30%Trump sends Congress formal notice that Iran conflict has resumed–Trump says the US will take out Pickaxe Mountain in Iran–

aljazeera.com9↑ 73%

US bombs Iran for a 10th night as Tehran attacks Kuwait↑ 45%What could a US ground invasion of Iran look like?↑ 60%Trump threatens to attack ‘Pickaxe Mountain’ a nuclear facility inside Ira↑ 40%US says conducting new wave of strikes on Iran as ceasefire falters↑ 34%Trump says he ‘may be gone’ as he declares himself Iran’s No. 1 target↑ 35%Trump says ceasefire ‘over’ after US, Iran trade attacks↑ 45%As the US restarts war on Iran, is its weapons stockpile running low?↓ 34%Trump threatens Iran after chants for his death erupted at Khamenei funeral–Trump says US ‘may take over Kharg Island’: Here’s what you need to know–

timesofindia.indiatimes.com8↑ 73%

'Next week comes bridges, power plants': Donald Trump says US strikes on Iran to escalate in three days↑ 45%'Waiting for their arrival': Iran dares US ground invasion on Kharg Island↑ 58%'Will pay many times over': Trump warns Iran after US troop deaths in Jordan↑ 45%'Bomb them like never before': Trump says 'left instructions' to strike Iran if assassinated↑ 33%'Will hit even deeper': Trump warns Iran as Tehran vows 'no American soldier will return alive'–'Responsibility to protect Americans': Trump tells US Congress fighting with Iran has resumed–The war that won't end: Why Iran ceasefire was always destined to fail–'Days, weeks or months': US gearing up for prolonged military campaign against Iran–

independent.co.uk7↑ 80%

Iran war live: Trump threatens to hit civilian targets as US resumes Hormuz blockade↑ 60%Trump threatens to hit Iran ‘hard again tonight’ after declaring ceasefire over↑ 40%Iran-US war live: Trump says Tehran ‘better behave’ as US launches fresh strikes↑ 40%US launches hellfire missiles at tanker headed for Iran’s Kharg Island↑ 33%Trump golfs and attends World Cup final as war in Iran resumes: ‘A very sad thing’↑ 34%Trump’s Iran war is has the military cash-strapped as Hegseth asks lawmakers for more↑ 39%Trump declares Iran ‘Cease Fire is OVER!’–

theguardian.com4↑ 78%

Why is Trump risking midterm disaster by resuming an already unpopular war with Iran?↑ 55%Trump declares ceasefire with Iran over during angry broadside at Nato summit↑ 45%Middle East crisis live: US launches new wave of strikes on Iran; Tehran says attacks render diplomacy ‘futile’↑ 36%Trump to deliver TV address amid speculation over elections announcement–

yahoo.com4↑ 73%

Trump says there will either be a deal with Iran or US will 'finish the job'↑ 45%Trump says interim accord with Iran to end war is "over"↓ 35%New attacks raise questions about what comes next in the Iran war–Trump says the US will take out Pickaxe Mountain in Iran–

meduza.io4↑ 67%

Axios: США перебрасывают в Израиль дополнительные самолеты для возможного усиления атак по Ирану — Meduza↑ 33%США семь часов наносили удары по Ирану и возобновили морскую блокаду. Трамп пригрозил атаковать иранские электростанции и мосты — Meduza↑ 30%США пять часов наносили удары по Ирану. Трамп официально уведомил конгресс о возобновлении военной операции — Meduza–Израиль передал США данные разведки о том, что Иран подготовил новый план покушения на Трампа — Meduza–

bbc.com3↑ 75%

США и Иран снова воюют? Текстовая версия подкаста «Что это было?» с иранистом Никитой СмагинымОбъясняет ЭКСПЕРТ - BBC News Русская служба↑ 50%ترامپ پس از تنش با جمهوری‌خواهان، برای جنگ با ایران میلیاردها دلار از کنگره خواست - BBC News فارسی–Трамп заявил о готовности нанести ракетный удар по Ирану в случае покушения на него - BBC News Русская служба–

israelnationalnews.com3↑ 70%

Trump to decide on broader military offensive targeting Iran↑ 40%Iranian source: We will soon launch massive attack against US military bases↑ 40%Trump reveals he's left instructions if Iran assassinates him↑ 40%

tagesschau.de3↑ 70%

US-Militär verkündet Start neuer Angriffswelle auf Iran↑ 40%Nach neuen Angriffen: Trump erklärt Rahmenabkommen mit Iran für beendet–Trump droht Iran bei NATO-Gipfel mit neuen Angriffen–

kyivpost.com2↑ 80%

Trump Says Iran Deal Is 'Over,' Calls Iranian Leaders 'Scum'↑ 60%US Demands Iran Surrender Uranium Stockpile as Condition for Any Nuclear Deal↑ 33%

semafor.com2↑ 75%

Fresh wave of attacks kill hopes for US-Iran truce↑ 50%US launches new strikes on Iran↑ 57%

tehrantimes.com2↑ 72%

Leader’s military advisor: Iran will shift to full-scale war if US strikes continue↑ 43%US could trigger Iranian operations against Kuwait and Bahrain: Lawmaker↑ 35%

dw.com2↑ 68%

Iran threatens 'full-scale' offensive if US keeps bombing↑ 35%Iran war: US continues strikes as Trump reinstates blockade↑ 30%

azatutyun.am2↑ 67%

ԱՄՆ-Իրան փոխհրաձգություն․ Թրամփը սպառնում է «շարքից հանել» Իրանի էլեկտրակայանները↑ 33%ԱՄՆ-ն Իրան ուղևորվող տանկեր է խոցել↑ 28%

upi.comTrump says he’ll give speech Thursday; third night of Iran attacks begins - UPI.com↑ 68%

twz.comDeal To End Hostilities Between U.S. And Iran Faces Most Serious Challenge Yet↑ 67%

france24.comIran had 'specific' plan to kill Trump, US media report citing Israeli intel↑ 67%

rferl.orgTrumps Says Strikes On Iran To Continue As Battle Over Strait Of Hormuz Escalates↑ 66%

defensenews.comUS to begin enforcing maritime blockade on Iran on Tuesday↑ 65%

Won't happen (5)

middleeasteye.net14↓ 90%

Trump signs US-Iran memorandum of understanding↓ 80%Trump threatens to ‘complete the job’, says Iran drone locations hit↑ 75%Trump says US ready to 'completely decimate' Iran if he is targeted↑ 60%Iran ready to 'welcome' US ground invasion as tit-for-tat attacks continue↑ 53%Trump threatens to target Iran's power plants, bridges next week if talks not resumed↓ 55%Trump: Iran ceasefire is over, it is a waste of time dealing with them↑ 40%Trump threatens to hit Iran ‘very hard’↑ 40%Tehran warns of ‘full-scale offensive’ if US strikes continue↑ 35%Trump says Iran 'wants to settle' as he boasts of new strikes↑ 32%Trump says ceasefire is over and calls Iran leaders 'scum', as both sides launch attacks↓ 37%Iran ready to 'welcome' US ground invasion as tit-for-tat attacks continue–'We will probably hit them hard tonight': Trump on Iran–Trump says strikes on Iran will continue ‘until I say enough’–Trump warns Iran must reach deal within 60 days–

ynet.co.il12↓ 79%

הסלמה "יקרה", מצור כלכלי או הפסקת אש "פגומה" | האפשרויות הרעות של טראמפ↓ 59%צבא ארה"ב: פתחנו בגל תקיפות חדש באיראן↑ 55%לקראת הרחבת הלחימה: ארה"ב שולחת עשרות מטוסי תדלוק נוספים לישראל↑ 53%טראמפ לא רצה להסלים - איראן לא הותירה לו אפשרויות↓ 60%טראמפ שוקל לחזור למלחמה כוללת באיראן: "בינתיים מעדיף מו"מ - גם אחרי הדד-ליין"↓ 50%טראמפ: "אתן אזהרה קטנה, כנראה נכה באיראן שוב הלילה"↑ 35%ארה"ב תקפה באיראן, בלילה התשיעי ברציפות: "פתוחים לפתרון דיפלומטי"↓ 35%ארה"ב: "תוקפים לילה שביעי ברצף", איראן: "ירינו על ספינה באוקיינוס ההודי"↑ 45%"מקווה שתתגעגעו אליי": הפסקת האש שתמה, וההוראות שהשאיר טראמפ אם איראן תחסל אותו↓ 50%איראן שוב ירתה על ספינה בהורמוז, והודיעה: "המצר נסגר עד להודעה חדשה"↑ 33%ארה"ב בליל תקיפות חמישי ברציפות: "הכנה להסלמה"; טראמפ: "איראן רוצה להיפגש"–טראמפ: "1,000 טילים כבר מכוונים לאיראן, אם ינסו להתנקש בי. הפקודות ניתנו"–

cnbc.com4↓ 80%

Trump says Iran ceasefire is 'over' after latest round of strikes↓ 60%Trump warns U.S. strikes on Iran could get ‘really bad’ next week with power plants targeted↑ 49%Trump again threatens Iran with annihilation as Kuwait and Bahrain report attacks↑ 40%Trump says U.S. will 'go right back to dropping bombs' if he doesn't like Iran deal–

lemonde.fr2↓ 75%

D’une défaite stratégique contre l’Iran au « hedging » : l’inévitable avènement d’un monde moins américain↓ 50%Donald Trump affirme que le cessez-le-feu avec l’Iran est « terminé », après la reprise de frappes massives↑ 40%

iranintl.comUS declares end of Iran truce as diplomacy collides with retaliation threats↓ 80%

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Forecast by komapc · opened Apr 17, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 20% · AI estimate 63% · open for forecasts.

Author

komapcAReputation 148

Creation date

Apr 17, 2026, 07:30 PM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

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President Trump will order the deployment of US ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.

Situation

Probability over time

Forecasts History

Sources behind the AI estimate(200 publications)

Discussion (0)

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