The next President of the United States will reverse the sanctions imposed on the International Criminal Court (ICC) by the Trump administration.

CreatedCreation date

Oct 9, 2026Oct 9, 2026, 09:48 PM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2032Dec 31, 2032, 11:59 PM UTC

Context

The Trump administration imposed sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC) on October 9, 2026, targeting the entity itself.…

The Trump administration imposed sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC) on October 9, 2026, targeting the entity itself. This move, announced by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, escalated the US stance against the Hague-based tribunal. The sanctions were enacted hours after a former ICC judge, Navi Pillay, won the Nobel Peace Prize.

Based on

independent.co.uk

Evidence estimate

Oracul

35%± 10%

TruthMachine Oracle (active-forecast backfill) · 12 articles

Community 70%

You 50%

AI 35%

Forecasts History

Will happen1

komapcAuthor

70%

Won't happen0

—

Sources behind the evidence estimate(12 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracul, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean25% · will

Will happen (1)

aljazeera.comEuropean states, Canada, Japan and UN back ICC against US sanctions↑ 68%

Won't happen (9)

middleeasteye.net222–50%↓ 22%

US sanctions International Criminal Court after former judge awarded Nobel Peace Prize↓ 22%US sanctions ICC after former judge awarded Nobel Peace Prize–

meduza.ioСША ввели санкции против Международного уголовного суда — Meduza↓ 22%

dw.comUS announces sanctions on the International Criminal Court↓ 20%

independent.co.ukTrump hits ICC with sanctions – hours after former judge wins Nobel Peace Prize↓ 14%

azatutyun.amԱՄՆ-ը պատժամիջոցներ սահմանեց Միջազգային քրեական դատարանի նկատմամբsettling↓ 14%

timesofindia.indiatimes.comHours after Navi Pillay wins Nobel Peace prize, Trump hits ICC with major sanctions↓ 11%

jns.orgUS sanctions entire International Criminal Court in The Hague↓ 10%

en.mercopress.comUS sanctions the International Criminal Court hours after a former judge wins the Nobel Peace Prize↓ 10%

ynet.co.ilהחלטה אמריקנית דרמטית נגד בית הדין בהאג - שעות אחרי הנובל למשפטנית האנטי-ישראלית↓ 8%

Neutral / unclear (1)

jpost.comDonald Trump administration sanctions ICC following Navi Pillay win | The Jerusalem Post–

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Forecast by komapc · opened Oct 9, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2032 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 70% · evidence estimate 35% · open for forecasts.

Author

komapcAELO 1404

Creation date

Oct 9, 2026, 09:48 PM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2032, 11:59 PM UTC

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!