Skip to content

Forecast Tracking

Forecasts
Activity
Leaderboard
Settings
Elections
About
Contact Us
Retro Analysis

Israel will withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

Dec 31, 2026

Community 49%

Israel will withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

CreatedCreation date

Jun 15, 2026Jun 15, 2026, 10:27 AM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2026Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Tags

Conflict Geopolitics Middle East

Israel and Lebanon are resuming direct talks in Rome to implement a framework agreement for a "pilot project" in southern Lebanon, with the Israeli Ambassador stating that IDF withdrawal is conditional on Hezbollah's removal from these zones. However, Israeli forces continue to conduct operations, demolishing homes and targeting infrastructure in southern Lebanon despite the ceasefire and framework deal. Meanwhile, Israel is scheduled to hold national elections on October 27, 2026, which could influence future policy decisions regarding the region.

Resolved 'Yes' if official reports from major news agencies (e.g., AP, Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera) confirm Israel has fully withdrawn its troops from southern Lebanon. Resolved 'No' if such withdrawal has not occurred by the resolution date.

Israel and Lebanon are resuming direct talks in Rome to implement a framework agreement for a "pilot project" in southern Lebanon, with the Israeli Ambassador stating that IDF withdrawal is conditional on Hezbollah's removal from these zones. However, Israeli forces continue to conduct operations, demolishing homes and targeting infrastructure in southern Lebanon despite the ceasefire and framework deal. Meanwhile, Israel is scheduled to hold national elections on October 27, 2026, which could influence future policy decisions regarding the region.

Last updated: Jul 14, 2026, 12:41 PM UTC

Based on

news.walla.co.il

AI estimate

Oracle

56%± 3%

TruthMachine Oracle (news-indexer match) · 136 articles

Community 49%

You 50%

AI 56%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 155 days

Forecasts History

Will happen2

andrey1barAuthor

70%

56%

Won't happen2

25%

43%

Sources behind the AI estimate(153 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean50% · will

Press is evenly split

Will happen (8)

A

al-monitor.com7↑ 57%

Lebanese army enters southern town after Israeli withdrawal, in first test of US-brokered deal↑ 57%Israel to withdraw from Lebanon’s pilot zones ahead of Aoun-Trump meeting↑ 60%Lebanese army deploys in southern town after Israeli withdrawal, official says↑ 65%Trump says he thinks Israel will withdraw troops from southern Lebanon–Israel says ready to move on pilot zones amid new Lebanon talks–Residents enter shattered south Lebanon town after Israeli withdrawal–Lebanon PM says Beirut working for 'complete Israeli withdrawal'–

U

upi.com4↑ 54%

Analysis: Lebanon walks diplomatic tightrope in bid to end Israel war - UPI.com↑ 54%Lebanese president to Netanyahu: War will not bring security or peace - UPI.com↑ 50%Lebanon, Israel conclude 'productive' talks in Rome - UPI.com–Analysis: Test of Israel’s good faith, Lebanon’s ability, U.S. resolve - UPI.com–

A

azatutyun.am2↑ 68%

Լիբանանի բանակը վերադառնում է երկրի հարավ↑ 68%Լիբանանի նախագահը՝ Թրամփին․իսրայելական զորքերի դուրսբերումն անհրաժեշտ է↑ 38%

L

lemonde.fr2↑ 40%

Le Liban et Israël signent à Washington un accord-cadre « pour une paix et une sécurité durable »↑ 40%Adel Nassar, ministre de la justice libanais : « L’attitude du Hezbollah ne fait que compliquer la position de négociation du Liban avec Israël »–

B

bbc.co.ukLebanese army says troops deploying in 'pilot zone' after Israeli withdrawal↑ 63%

M

meduza.ioИзраиль и «Хизбалла» договорились о прекращении огня — Meduza↑ 63%

I

israelnationalnews.comIDF and Lebanese army prepare Hezbollah-free zone↑ 60%

N

news.walla.co.ilדיווח בלבנון: נסיגה ישראלית מאזורי הפיילוט בתוך ימים - וואלה חדשות↑ 50%

Won't happen (9)

J

jpost.com26↓ 77%

Lebanese army unlikely to effectively eliminate Hezbollah, IDF commanders say | The Jerusalem Post↓ 77%Israel must withdraw from Lebanon according to timetable, Hezbollah chief says | The Jerusalem Post↑ 65%Lebanon pilot zone to launch in coming days, US official says | The Jerusalem Post↑ 68%Officials: A full withdrawal from Lebanon would be Netanyahu's political suicide | The Jerusalem Post↓ 72%Israel-Lebanon: The official end of a 78-year war? | The Jerusalem Post↑ 60%US gov't supports phased IDF Lebanon withdrawal under Hezbollah disarmament deal | The Jerusalem Post↑ 68%Israel Lebanon talks conclude in Rome, pilot zones agreement reached | The Jerusalem Post↑ 68%Full text of US, Israel, Lebanon Trilateral Framework | The Jerusalem Post↑ 63%US-brokered Israel-Lebanon deal adopts ‘trust, but verify’ model | The Jerusalem Post↑ 57%IDF retreat from Lebanon depends on Hezbollah disarmament, officials say | The Jerusalem Post↑ 56%Can Israel finally make a peace deal with Lebanon work? | The Jerusalem Post↑ 60%CENTCOM Chief to visit IDF Chief of Staff to solidify Lebanon ceasefire | The Jerusalem Post↓ 56%What the new US-Israel-Lebanon agreement means for Hezbollah | The Jerusalem Post↑ 64%Lebanese Army troops to enter border pilot zones to test Hezbollah disarmament | The Jerusalem Post↑ 50%How the new Israel-Lebanon agreement changes the rules of the game-opinion | The Jerusalem Post↑ 61%IDF still in Lebanon buffer zones despite State Dept. comment, official says | The Jerusalem Post↓ 55%Benjamin Netanyahu: IDF to remain in Lebanon Security Zone until Hezbollah threat ends | The Jerusalem Post↓ 60%IDF rushes to clear Hezbollah terror sites from 52 southern Lebanon villages | The Jerusalem Post↑ 62%Donald Trump and Katz must align US, Israel on Lebanon withdrawal conditions | The Jerusalem Post↓ 54%Israel wonders if Lebanon's gov't stand up to Hezbollah as talks renew in Rome | The Jerusalem Post↑ 60%Israeli ambassador to US says IDF Lebanon withdrawal hinges on Hezbollah | The Jerusalem Post↓ 55%Reclaiming sovereignty: Lebanon-Israel deal could marks beginning of a new era | The Jerusalem Post↑ 40%Marco Rubio makes history with Israel-Lebanon recognition clause | The Jerusalem Post↓ 40%Mending fences in good faith on the Israel-Lebanon border | The Jerusalem Post–Donald Trump says Israel will leave southern Lebanon, despite Benjamin Netanyahu vow to stay | The Jerusalem Post–Does the new Israel-Lebanon agreement have a chance at success? | The Jerusalem Post–

Y

ynet.co.il22↓ 80%

טראמפ אמר כי הוא "חושב שישראל רוצה לסגת מלבנון", כ"ץ: "לא צריכים אישור להישאר"↓ 80%תקיפות ליליות של צה"ל בלבנון: "אין לישראל מה לעשות מול ההסכם הגרוע"↓ 74%ועכשיו, הכל תלוי בעיקר באיראן↓ 70%צה"ל נערך לשהות ארוכה, חיזבאללה מרענן כוחות | תמונת מצב מלבנון, וגל התקיפות החריג↓ 76%לאחוז בלבנון ולחכות לאיראן בנובמבר: התקווה הישראלית לחלון ההזדמנויות הבא↓ 70%רפורמה אסטרטגית וצבאית דרושה למדינה שאינה מעצמה↓ 70%במשך עשור שם נתניהו את כל הז'יטונים על טראמפ. ישראל הפסידה ברולטה | פרשנות↓ 70%פיצוץ עז יישמע בצפון בגלל השמדת רשת מנהרות ענק: "יפעיל התרעת רעידת אדמה"↑ 60%לוחם מילואים נפצע קשה בדרום לבנון↑ 60%נתניהו על ההסכם עם לבנון: "מכה גדולה לאיראן ולחיזבאללה" | ישיר↓ 63%כ"ץ: "יכול להיות שמחר אנחנו במלחמה עם איראן. צה"ל נערך למבצע כחול-לבן"↑ 60%צה"ל נערך למסור שני אזורי פיילוט לצבא לבנון; נתניהו מכנס התייעצות ביטחונית↑ 68%דרושה הכרעה - ועכשיו↓ 60%בארה"ב טוענים: ישראל נסוגה מחלק מהשטח בלבנון; בביירות ובי-ם מכחישים↓ 58%השגריר בארה"ב: צבא לבנון מרחיק קצינים שיעים; בן גביר ומאי גולן הביכו את ישראל↑ 64%"שואפים לסיים את העימות - ולכונן שלום" | הנוסח המלא של הסכם ישראל-לבנון↑ 48%צבא לבנון נפרס באזור הפיילוט הראשון - בצה"ל נערכים לנסיגה מהשני↑ 57%לקראת הפסגה עם ישראל ברומא: "צבא לבנון מוכן"↑ 64%צבא לבנון נכנס לשטח שפינה צה"ל - ובוושינגטון נערכים לפגישה היסטורית↑ 48%הסכם עם לבנון - אבל מה עם השיעים?–בלבנון הצהירו: "המסגרת שואפת לנסיגה מלאה" | התמריץ הכלכלי - והמנגנון המשולש–לא נסיגה, פריסה מחדש–

KS

Kirill Semenov22↓ 75%

בנט בכנס INSS: "בממשלה הבאה - אכריז על קטאר כמדינת אויב. מדובר בסרטן ששולח גרורות למערב, ואפילו ללשכת ראש ממשלת ישראל"↓ 75%מבזק↓ 75%מבזק↓ 70%https://www.c14.co.il/article/1629029↑ 65%איבראהים רדאי, היועץ הצבאי הבכיר של המנהיג העליון: ↑ 65%Традиционный обзор арабских СМИ на Первом радио.↑ 65%Reading the Signs. It's About To Happen! https://mailchi.mp/hananyanaftali/reading-the-signs-its-about-to-happen↑ 65%משרד החוץ האמריקאי מודיע: יישום הפיילוט לנסיגה מדרום לבנון החל היום בשלושה כפרים במדינה - פראון, סריפא וזאותר אל ערביה, בהתאם למסגרת ההסכם המשולש ובחסות קבוצת התיאום הצבאית ללבנון. אבן דרך זו היא תוצא↑ 68%https://www.c14.co.il/article/1626140↑ 63%מבזק↓ 55%Переговоры между Ливаном и Израилем↑ 55%🇸🇾🇺🇸 Jerusalem Post:↓ 65%🌟 Лицо сионистского режима, кто на самом деле уничтожает древнюю цивилизацию Леаанта и прямо не стесняясь говорит об этом и это еще и оказывается повод для гордости.↓ 60%מבזק↑ 65%Встреча Трампа и Ахмеда аш-Шараа↑ 60%מבזק↑ 60%נכשל הביקור של נשיא "לבנון" אצל טראמפ.↓ 60%Here is a more thorough update to what happened last night and where are we going. https://mailchi.mp/hananyanaftali/its-over-trump-ends-the-iran-ceasefire↑ 55%מה שהיתה פעם העיירה השיעית "בית יאחון", בתוך השטח החדש שלנו ב"לבנון", הרוסה, חרבה וריקה. כוחות צה"ל מפטרלים בתוכה.↓ 50%Президент Ливана, Джозеф Аун в ходе визита в Вашингтон: "Можно разоружить Хезболлу, если быть честными в отношении того, что действительно необходимо: вывод из Южного Ливана израильских войск, передач↑ 40%עיירת האויב בנת ג'בייל, בשטח הצפוני החדש שלנו, לא נראית משהו. יותר מזה - היא כבר לא קיימת.↓ 40%The international community is trying to pressure Israel again.↑ 35%

M

middleeasteye.net21↓ 89%

Israel will remain in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza 'without time limit'↓ 89%Netanyahu vows continued Israeli military presence in Lebanon↓ 86%Israeli defence minister says Israel has 'no intention of withdrawing' from southern Lebanon↓ 82%Israel says troops will occupy southern Lebanon↓ 83%Netanyahu says Israeli troops will remain in southern Lebanon↓ 83%Katz says Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon even if US demands it↓ 80%Israel says it will remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah disarms↓ 82%Israeli PM's office says operations in Lebanon will continue↓ 80%Netanyahu: Israeli forces to stay in Lebanon ‘as long as need requires’↓ 80%Israeli ministers vow 'heavy price' and indefinite stay in Lebanon after soldier deaths↓ 78%Report: Centcom team in Beirut to help implement Lebanon-Israel deal↑ 71%Israel suspends attacks on Lebanon under American pressure, report says↑ 65%Israel delays withdrawal from two southern Lebanon villages, report says↓ 60%Israel to reduce forces in southern Lebanon, army radio says↑ 45%US delegation in Lebanon to discuss Israel 'pilot zone' withdrawal↑ 74%What the 14-point Lebanon-Israel framework agreement actually says↑ 54%US-Iran deal leaves Israel isolated and Netanyahu exposed↓ 39%Israel prepares to withdraw from two areas in southern Lebanon: Report↑ 45%British official calls on Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon↑ 40%Hezbollah chief demands full timetabled Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon–Lebanon president says he insisted on 'full Israeli withdrawal' in Trump talks–

A

aljazeera.net15↓ 75%

بعد عقدين من الزمن.. ماذا تغير في لبنان منذ حرب تموز 2006؟↓ 75%لهذا يمثل لقاء ترمب وعون خبرا سيئا لحزب الله وإيران؟↑ 68%بين السرية والتسريبات.. ملحق أمني يعيد رسم قواعد الاشتباك في جنوب لبنان↓ 67%دبلوماسي لبناني للجزيرة: لبنان يطلب ضمانات إذا نقلت المفاوضات إلى روما↓ 61%بين 17 أيار و26 يونيو.. اتفاقا لبنان وإسرائيل وشبح الحرب الأهلية↓ 61%المناطق التجريبية.. آلية تسليم إسرائيل القرى المحتلة للجيش اللبناني↓ 67%الجيش اللبناني يبدأ الانتشار في بلدة زوطر الغربية بالجنوب↑ 67%ما الذي تكشفه زيارة قائد البحرية الأمريكية لإسرائيل ولبنان؟↑ 66%لبنان.. ارتفاع عدد ضحايا العدوان الإسرائيلي وتحذيرات من انتهاك الاتفاق↓ 60%جدعون لخلفاء نتنياهو: ماذا ستفعلون بغزة والضفة والاحتلال والقضية الفلسطينية؟↓ 40%إسرائيل تعلن مقتل 3 من حزب الله والجيش اللبناني يكثف تحركاته جنوبا↑ 62%الاحتلال يروج لهما "منطقتين تجريبيتين".. نازحون يعودون إلى بلدتي فرون والغندورية–زيارة عسكرية أمريكية وقرار إسرائيلي مرتقب بالانسحاب من جنوب لبنان–ختام محادثات لبنان وإسرائيل باتفاق مبدئي وتحديد منطقتين لتجربة الانسحاب–خرائط وهمية وبلدات غير محتلة.. هل تهدد "المناطق التجريبية" الاتفاق بين لبنان وإسرائيل؟–

A

aa.com.tr11↓ 83%

'We do not need permission to stay in Lebanon,' Israeli defense minister says, rejecting Trump's withdrawal remarks↓ 83%Israel injures worker, destroys homes in southern Lebanon despite US-brokered framework deal↓ 70%Israeli army preparing to withdraw from parts of southern Lebanon within days: Report↑ 60%Netanyahu convenes top security meeting to approve Israeli withdrawal points in southern Lebanon: Report↑ 65%Israeli army demolishes, burns homes in southern Lebanon despite framework deal↓ 65%Israel, Lebanon hold US-mediated talks on trial withdrawal from 2 border villages: Report↑ 63%Lebanese army begins deployment in southern town under framework agreement with Israel↑ 50%Lebanese president says time has come to end war permanently after 'fruitful' Trump meeting↑ 40%Lebanese official says launch of ‘pilot areas’ to begin within days after Rome talks↑ 40%Israel’s occupation of Lebanese territory hinders army deployment in south, president warns↓ 45%Israel launches fresh airstrikes in southern Lebanon despite US-brokered deal–

A

aljazeera.com10↓ 83%

Katz: Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon even if US demands it↓ 83%Israel orders troops to prepare for ‘extended stay’ in Lebanon↓ 83%Hezbollah demands Israel leave Lebanon ‘unconditionally’ as US talks extend↓ 56%Lebanon’s goal to end hostilities with Israel ‘forever’, says president↑ 45%Hezbollah: Israel must ‘unconditionally’ leave Lebanon↓ 45%Israel releases video of huge detonations in Lebanon–Could Israel’s coming election see an end to Netanyahu’s political career?–Lebanese return to ‘pilot zone’ villages they say Israel never occupied–‘Just want to go back’: Lebanese await return as army enters ‘pilot zone’–Lebanon and Israel end sixth round of US-brokered talks–

T

timesofindia.indiatimes.com'We will not leave': Netanyahu visits Israeli troops in 'occupied' southern Lebanon↓ 71%

T

theguardian.comIsrael says IDF is staying in southern Lebanon, undermining Iran peace talks↓ 68%

Neutral / unclear (5)

P

pbs.orgUN human rights chief says Israel must end house demolitions and occupation in Lebanon–

D

dw.comLebanon: Is US-Iran peace deal a 'victory' for Hezbollah?–

B

bbc.comإسرائيل تشن ضربات على جنوب لبنان وحزب الله يندد بالاتفاق الجديد - BBC News عربي–

F

france24.comIsrael and Lebanon discuss plan to transfer some southern territory to Lebanese army–

C

carnegieendowment.orgA Mechanism of Coercion–

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!

Forecast by andrey1bar · opened Jun 15, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 4 forecasters · community consensus 49% · AI estimate 56% · open for forecasts.

Author

andrey1barAReputation 45

Creation date

Jun 15, 2026, 10:27 AM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Tags

Conflict Geopolitics Middle East

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!