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Retro Analysis

The war between Russia and Ukraine will end before December 31, 2027.

Dec 31, 2027

Community 80%

The war between Russia and Ukraine will end before December 31, 2027.

CreatedCreation date

Sep 13, 2026Sep 13, 2026, 11:21 AM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2027Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC

Context

The war between Russia and Ukraine continues.…

The war between Russia and Ukraine continues. Recent reports detail ongoing hostilities, drone attacks, and warnings from Russian President Putin regarding the potential deployment of European troops. Ukrainian officials are discussing potential scenarios for ending the conflict, including a frozen front, while some peace proposals involve Ukraine ceding territories.

Based on

AI estimate

Oracul

41%± 4%

TruthMachine Oracle (news-indexer match) · 129 articles

The forecast will be considered resolved as YES if, before December 31, 2027, one of the following events occurs, confirmed by major international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP, AFP): — A formal peace treaty is signed; — A comprehensive ceasefire agreement is implemented and widely observed; — The cessation of major hostilities is officially announced. Otherwise, the forecast will be considered resolved as NO.

Community 80%

You 50%

AI 41%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 457 days

Tags

Conflict Geopolitics Europe Россия

Forecasts History

Will happen1

andrey1barAuthor

80%

Won't happen0

—

Sources behind the AI estimate(129 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracul, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean43% · will

Press leans toward 'won't happen' · 57%

Will happen (9)

A

aa.com.tr78–91%↑ 85%

Trump says Ukraine, Russia 'going to make a deal,' discusses Patriot missile production↑ 85%Ukraine’s Zelenskyy names conditions for halting strikes on Russian energy infrastructure↑ 85%Ukraine urges Russia at UN Security Council to accept unconditional ceasefire↑ 91%Zelenskyy doubts Russia will honor energy-target truce announced by Trump↓ 12%Ukraine says 4 killed, 21 injured in overnight strikes by Russia↓ 8%France, UK, Denmark urge Russia at UN Security Council to end war on Ukraine↑ 91%Germany's Merz warns Ukraine war entering most decisive period ahead–

A

azatutyun.am513–89%↑ 89%

Ե՛վ Միացյալ Նահանգները, և՛ Ուկրաինան ցանկանում են, որ այս պատերազմն ավարտվի մինչև ձմեռ․ Զելենսկի↑ 89%Զելենսկին «ցավոտ» ձմեռ է խոստացել Ռուսաստանին↓ 13%Ռուսաստանը ցանկանում է վերջ տալ ուկրաինական հակամարտությանը. Լավրով↑ 84%Ամերիկացի օրենսդիրները հաստատել են ՌԴ-ի դեմ պատժամիջոցների օրինագիծը, Մոսկվան էլ սպառնում է–Չնայած Թրամփի պնդմանը՝ Ռուսաստանն ու Ուկրաինան հարվածում են էներգետիկ օբյեկտներին–

I

independent.co.uk350–86%↑ 86%

Ukraine war live: Zelensky arrives in US after Trump says Putin ‘lost control of oil’↑ 86%Ukraine war live: Putin could attack a Nato country, warns Denmark–Russia and Ukraine trade deadly strikes as Zelenskyy prepares to meet Trump–

F

france24.com250–88%↑ 88%

Zelensky says Ukraine is ready for an energy ceasefire with Russia↑ 88%Zelensky says Ukraine ready to de-escalate if Russia halts strikes–

T

thehill.com287–91%↑ 87%

Trump begs Ukraine and Russia to stop the war, save diesel↑ 87%Trump: Russia has ‘lost control’ of diesel industry due to Ukraine war↑ 91%

A

al-monitor.com Zelenskiy says Ukraine ready for maritime truce and puts onus on Russia to respond↑ 93%

U

upi.comZelensky warns U.N. about Putin, spread of Russian war, AI in battle - UPI.com↑ 88%

C

cnbc.comZelenskyy says Ukraine ready for ‘energy ceasefire’, calls for trilateral meeting with Putin, Trump↑ 88%

E

euobserver.comWe lied to ourselves again, Russians write, as Ukrainians reportedly advance beyond the Zherebets river (Ukraine Battlefield update, Day 1,665)↑ 88%

Won't happen (18)

L

lemonde.fr236–92%↓ 6%

EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : des dizaines de drones ukrainiens visant Moscou et sa région ont été abattus↓ 6%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : une personne blessée à Kiev dans des attaques de drones russes↓ 9%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : trois morts, dont deux enfants de 2 ans et 3 ans, dans une frappe russe près de Kiev↓ 6%A l’Assemblée générale de l’ONU, Volodymyr Zelensky défend ses frappes visant la Russie pour « ne pas mourir »↑ 86%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : la Russie affirme poursuivre ses attaques contre les trains ukrainiens↓ 11%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : le chef de la diplomatie américaine, Marco Rubio, va rencontrer son homologue russe, Sergueï Lavrov, mercredi à New York↑ 92%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : au moins deux personnes tuées dans une série de frappes nocturnes sur Kiev↓ 11%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : Volodymyr Zelensky et Ursula von der Leyen ont discuté pour tenter de trouver une solution au financement de la défense ukrainienne↓ 11%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : les attaques russes sur Kiev ont tué au moins sept personnes vendredi, selon le maire de la ville↓ 10%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : au moins deux morts dans une frappe russe à Soumy↓ 12%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : Volodymyr Zelensky dénonce des attaques russes visant des civils dans toute l’Ukraine, notamment contre l’Académie nationale des sciences à Kiev↓ 22%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : neuf morts dans des frappes russes à Kiev et dans la région de Kharkiv↓ 6%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : au moins 12 blessés, dont deux enfants, dans des attaques nocturnes sur Kiev↓ 8%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : les forces russes ont lancé plus de 300 drones d’attaque sur l’Ukraine, dimanche↑ 85%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : un enfant tué par des frappes russes dans la région de Kiev↓ 22%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : Donald Trump a accepté d’accorder à l’Ukraine les licences pour produire des missiles Patriot, annonce Volodymyr Zelensky↑ 92%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : l’Europe doit se préparer à une multiplication des attaques hybrides russes au cours des prochains mois, avertit le ministre de la défense belge↓ 23%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : la Corée du Nord va former 10 000 soldats supplémentaires pour aider la Russie, affirme Volodymyr Zelensky↓ 25%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : après des attaques russes visant des civils, Volodymyr Zelensky dit que « la Russie doit répondre de tout cela et en subir de réelles conséquences »↓ 27%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : fortes explosions entendues à Kiev visée par des missiles balistiques, selon l’armée de l’air ukrainienne↓ 30%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : les dernières informations et nos réponses à vos questions↓ 32%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : les attaques russes font deux morts dans la région de Kiev et deux jeunes victimes dans les régions de Dnipropetrovsk et Kharkiv↑ 68%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : l’Europe « fait tout » pour contrecarrer les négociations sur l’Ukraine, accuse Sergueï Lavrov à l’ONU↓ 30%

K

kyivpost.com204–90%↓ 12%

HUR: Russia Plans to Continue War, May Mobilize After Elections↓ 12%ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 23, 2026↓ 5%Ukraine Must Defend Its Skies This Winter to Force Russia Toward Talks, Biletsky Says↑ 82%Russia’s Confirmed War Dead Surpass 250,000↓ 14%Zelenskt Tells UN Russia Lost 248,964 Troops in 8 Months to Seize Just Over 1,000 Square Kilometers↓ 15%ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 16, 2026↓ 9%Zelensky Says Putin Finds ‘Lame Excuse’ to Avoid Peace as Russian Strikes Kill at Least 10 in 24 Hours↓ 20%Ukraine News Today: Breaking Updates & Live Coverage - September 22, 2026 from Kyiv Post↓ 4%British Defence Intelligence Update Ukraine 29 September , 2026↓ 22%EU Pledges €3.3 Billion to Ukraine for Missiles, Drones as Kyiv Seeks Defense Funding Solutions↑ 90%Putin Wants Kyiv Afraid to Go Shopping: Russia’s Pre-Winter Campaign to Cripple the Capital↓ 24%ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28, 2026↓ 22%Frontline Update, Lyman Details, AFU Reorganization↑ 86%ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 26, 2026↓ 26%Ukraine News Today: Breaking Updates & Live Coverage - September 24, 2026 from Kyiv Post–Russia Threatens Ukraine to 'Pay the Price' as Drones Rain Down on Civilian Infrastructure–Ukraine Drones Hit Russia With a 3-to-1 Advantage↑ 68%ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 15, 2026–Battle for Belarus–Kyiv Has Russia’s Winter Energy Strike Plans–

P

pravda.com.ua196–90%↓ 6%

Large-scale Russian attack cuts power to some consumers in eight oblasts↓ 6%Russia attacks Ukraine with missiles and drones, hits recorded at 36 locations↓ 6%Fifty countries and EU call on Russia to cease fire, US does not support statement↑ 90%Rubio predicts how Russia's war against Ukraine will end↑ 88%Zelenskyy responds to Trump and says Ukraine is ready for de-escalation: "Solutions are possible"↑ 88%Zelenskyy: Graham bill and other sanctions will help force Russia to make peace↑ 89%Zelenskyy hopes Trump will help end Russia’s war before winter↑ 84%Ukraine sees energy and Black Sea ceasefire as possible key outcome of Zelenskyy-Trump meeting in New York↑ 83%Zelenskyy: Russia is not preparing to stop war and plans major spending on drones↓ 19%Zelenskyy says Ukraine has approved long-range operations for October↓ 18%Ukrainian intelligence agency: Russia does not plan to cease fire, no peace deal expected by end of year↓ 16%Trump reveals message to Putin: Settle the war↑ 88%Zelenskyy: Russia has captured 890 sq km and lost 270,000 people in 2026, Ukraine has liberated 800 sq km↓ 16%Zelenskyy: Russia wants to leave Ukrainians without internet or communications, we are countering it–Survey: 77% of Ukrainians support armed resistance to Russia despite threat to energy infrastructure in winter–Kremlin: Ukraine will have to "pay the price" for recent actions↑ 70%"General Winter" may go over to Ukraine’s side this year – Zelenskyy–Russia attacks Ukraine with Zircon missiles and drones, hits recorded at 15 locations–Zelenskyy says war cannot end in win-win outcome after so many deaths–

M

meduza.io103–86%↓ 3%

Россия нанесла удары по Киеву, Запорожью и Харьковской области. Загорелись заправки и торговый центр — Meduza↓ 3%Российские войска нанесли удары по Киеву, Днепру, Кривому Рогу и Павлограду — Meduza↓ 4%Премьер Польши заявил, что Россия готовит «случайные» удары дронами и ракетами по странам НАТО, которые поддерживают Украину — Meduza↓ 15%Война. 1671-й день. Россия расширяет производство дронов. Европейские разведки обсуждают, как далеко Москва готова зайти в противостоянии с НАТО — Meduza↓ 16%«Мы готовы. Войну нужно заканчивать». Зеленский — об энергетическом перемирии, которое анонсировал Трамп — Meduza↑ 80%Война. 1673-й день. Трамп и Зеленский встретились в Нью-Йорке. После переговоров президент Украины сказал, что войну желательно закончить до зимы — Meduza↑ 86%Война. 1666-й день. ВСУ объявили, что проводят контрнаступление в Донецкой области. Это операция под названием «Вивальди» — Meduza–Война. 1670-й день. Самая массированная атака украинских дронов на Москву и Подмосковье в день выборов. Двое погибших, горит НПЗ в Капотне. Материал обновляется — Meduza–Война. 1667-й день. Россия усиливает гибридные атаки на страны Запада. Источник Bloomberg, близкий к Кремлю, заявил, что Москва — за поддержку Киева — превратит жизнь Европы «в ад» — Meduza–Зеленский: администрация Трампа предложила три шага для деэскалации войны — Meduza–

A

aljazeera.net87–88%↓ 7%

قصف متبادل بين روسيا وأوكرانيا وكييف تخطط لإنفاق دفاعي قياسي عام 2027↓ 7%مئات المسيّرات يوميا لا تكفي للحسم.. لماذا تطول حرب روسيا وأوكرانيا؟↓ 12%روسيا تكثف هجماتها على أوكرانيا وتعلن استعدادها لمفاوضات جادة↓ 8%هجمات روسية أوكرانية متبادلة تخلف قتلى وتستهدف مدنا ومنشآت نفطية↓ 22%بين التصعيد والوساطة.. حرب روسيا وأوكرانيا أمام اختبار دبلوماسي جديد↑ 84%بوتين يدرس استئناف التفاوض مع أوكرانيا وزيلينسكي ينال الموافقة لإنتاج باتريوت↑ 88%ترمب: اتفاق روسي أوكراني على وقف استهداف منشآت الطاقة–زيلينسكي يبحث مع ترمب "هدنة الطاقة" وعقد قمة ثلاثية مع بوتين–

R

rferl.org59–89%↓ 9%

Russia And Ukraine Launch Attacks On Final Day Of Russian Parliamentary Vote↓ 9%US Senator Jeanne Shaheen: ‘Putin Is Trying To Wait Us Out’↑ 89%Zelenskyy Says Russia Not Ready To End War, Cites Spending On Jet-Powered Drones↓ 23%A Quiet Ukrainian Counteroffensive, A 'Rout' For Russian Forces↑ 84%Russia Launches Deadly Attacks On Ukraine; Zelenskyy Calls For Pressure On Putin–

A

aljazeera.com45–84%↓ 10%

Lavrov: Russia’s war in Ukraine will continue ‘through to the end’↓ 10%Russia attacks Ukraine while Zelenskyy speaks at UNGA↓ 5%Zelenskyy says Ukraine will pause attacks if Russia spares infrastructure↑ 84%Russia’s attacks on Ukraine kill six after Zelenskyy-Trump talks–

T

tagesschau.de35–50%↓ 5%

Wieder Tote bei russischen Angriffen auf zivile Infrastruktur in der Ukraine↓ 5%Russland gegen die Ukraine: "Übergang zu einem Vernichtungskrieg"↓ 14%Krieg gegen die Ukraine: Tote bei russischen Angriffen auf Industriestädte–

O

oilprice.com222–22%↓ 22%

What’s Putin’s Secret Post-Election Strategy To Test NATO? | OilPrice.com↓ 22%Zelenskyy Warns Russia Wants to Widen War Beyond Ukraine | OilPrice.com↓ 22%

J

jpost.com214–50%↓ 14%

Volodymyr Zelensky says Vladimir Putin planning new attack on Ukraine while in New York | The Jerusalem Post↓ 14%Vladimir Putin prepares Russian draft surge, European hybrid attacks after Duma election | The Jerusalem Post–

P

pbs.org29–50%↓ 9%

Russian strikes kill 8 civilians in Ukraine as UN debates how to end the war↓ 9%Zelenskyy says Ukraine will pause strikes on Russia if Kremlin spares critical infrastructure–

F

foreignpolicy.comWhy My Kyiv Visit Worried Me So Much↓ 18%

A

atlanticcouncil.orgVladimir Putin only has two options in Ukraine: Total victory or endless war↓ 15%

T

theguardian.comThe long-range drone war: Ukraine and Russia scramble for supremacy in the skies↓ 15%

S

srugim.co.ilרוסיה עלולה לתקוף נאט"ו: אירופה נערכת למלחמה בחודשים הקרובים - סרוגים↓ 13%

Y

yahoo.com'The basement saved me': Frontline Ukrainian city under fire amid US peace push↓ 11%

D

dw.comGerman-Russian relations at freezing point↓ 10%

K

kikar.co.ilבצל החשש בברית נאט"ו: אוקראינה תקפה את מוסקבה במאות כטב"מים↓ 9%

Neutral / unclear (1)

B

bbc.comДональд Трамп заявил, что Россия и Украина договорились не наносить удары по энергетике друг друга - BBC News Русская служба–

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Forecast by andrey1bar · opened Sep 13, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2027 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 80% · AI estimate 41% · open for forecasts.

Author

andrey1barAELO 1404

Creation date

Sep 13, 2026, 11:21 AM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC

Tags

Conflict Geopolitics Europe Россия

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!