Israel will establish a permanent buffer zone in southern Lebanon and official sources will confirm the dismantling of Hezbollah's military infrastructure within that zone by December 31, 2026.
The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
Significant new destruction by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher is reported by credible international organizations or major news outlets by December 31, 2026.