Conflict

28 active forecasts

59%

3Geopolitics Conflict

All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.

51%

1Geopolitics Conflict

The United States will deploy ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.

Geopolitics Middle East

Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

63%

1AI: 60±13%Geopolitics Middle East

Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026.

Geopolitics Conflict

Russia will accelerate the development of its nuclear triad and other advanced systems for its armed forces.

60%

1AI: 67±22%Conflict Geopolitics

Will significant new destruction by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher be reported by credible international organizations or major news outlets by December 31, 2026?

55%

1AI: 60%Conflict Geopolitics

A formal, signed ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia will be publicly announced and take effect.

Geopolitics Conflict

WIll USA bomb Iran in 2025?

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