Dec 31, 2026
Community 50%
The United States will formally withdraw from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by December 31, 2026.
CreatedCreation date
Apr 15, 2026Apr 15, 2026, 07:02 PM UTC
ResolvesResolution date
Dec 31, 2026Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Former President Trump has indicated a potential interest in withdrawing the U.S. from NATO. However, Congress passed a law in 2023 (Section 1250A of the 2024 NDAA) that prohibits the President from unilaterally withdrawing the United States from the alliance. Additionally, NATO's Article 13 stipulates that any member country must provide a one-year notice of denunciation before withdrawing.
Community 50%
You 50%
AI 63%
includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 164 days
Probability over time
Drag across the chart to zoom · double-click to reset
Sources behind the AI estimate(13 publications)
Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.
Press lean65% · will
Press leans toward 'will happen' · 65%Will happen (8)
Ffrance24.com2↑ 80%
HNHananya Naftali2↑ 70%
Kkyivpost.com2↑ 70%
Aaljazeera.net2↑ 70%
F
foreignpolicy.comNATO Is Still a Sick Puppy↑ 80%S
semafor.comTrump lashes out at NATO, still wants Greenland↑ 78%T
tagesschau.deNATO-Generalsekretär Rutte trifft Präsident Trump in Washington↑ 75%T
theguardian.comNato braces for difficult summit as Trump puts pressure on spending↑ 71%Discussion (0)
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!
Forecast by komapc · opened Apr 15, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 0 forecasters · AI estimate 63% · open for forecasts.
Author
K
komapcAReputation 148Creation date
Apr 15, 2026, 07:02 PM UTC
Resolution date
Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Discussion (0)
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!