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DAATAN
Dec 31, 2026
Community 88%

The Israeli army will maintain a presence in Lebanese territory until at least December 31, 2026.

Created
Apr 1, 2026
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Tags
ConflictGeopoliticsMiddle East
Recent statements from Israel's Defence Minister in March 2026 indicate plans to establish a buffer zone and indefinitely occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River. Concurrently, Israel is sending more troops into the region, with the Defence Minister describing the area as a "security zone."
50%You
Community 88%
You 50%
AI 90%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 171 days

Probability over time

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Forecasts History

Will happen2
JL
John Lennon
100%
K
komapcAuthor
77%
Won't happen0

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Sources behind the AI estimate(26 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean76% · will
Press leans toward 'will happen' · 76%

Will happen (6)

M
middleeasteye.net16↑ 93%
Video: Israeli forces to remain in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza ‘without limit’↑ 85%Israel to reduce forces in southern Lebanon, army radio says↑ 85%Israel says will only withdraw from Lebanon after Hezbollah disarmed↑ 75%Katz says Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon even if US demands it↑ 70%Israel says it will remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah disarms↓ 80%Israel will remain in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza 'without time limit'↑ 64%Israeli minister says Israel not bound by US-Iran agreement↑ 70%Netanyahu and Katz say Israel will remain in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza 'without time limit'↑ 64%Netanyahu says Israeli military to stay in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah ‘disarm’↑ 60%Israeli PM's office says operations in Lebanon will continue↑ 67%Israeli ministers vow 'heavy price' and indefinite stay in Lebanon after soldier deaths↑ 65%Israel to hold positions in Lebanon while limiting operations, reports say↑ 55%Israel vows to maintain military presence in Lebanon, Gaza and Syria↑ 63%Israel says troops will remain in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza ‘until further notice’↓ 57%Israeli military: Our forces are operating in southern Lebanon↑ 33%Israel says troops will occupy southern Lebanon–
A
aljazeera.com3↑ 95%
Netanyahu: ‘We will remain in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza as long as required’↑ 90%Israel orders troops to prepare for ‘extended stay’ in Lebanon↑ 75%Katz: Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon even if US demands it↑ 70%
Y
ynet.co.il2↑ 90%
הנעלם הגדול בהסכם: צבא לבנון↑ 80%התמריצים, הנסיגה, המשמעויות: כל מה שידוע על הסכם ישראל-לבנון↑ 80%
A
aljazeera.net2↑ 79%
رغم اتفاق الانسحاب.. إسرائيل ترسخ وجودها العسكري جنوب لبنان↑ 58%كاتس يتعهد ببقاء الجيش الإسرائيلي في لبنان وسوريا وغزة ويحذر إيران↑ 60%
T
thehill.comIsrael rules out withdrawing from seized land↑ 93%
M
meduza.ioНетаниягу отказался выводить израильские войска из Южного Ливана — Meduza↑ 80%

+1 article matched but not used by the AI

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Forecast by komapc · opened Apr 1, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 2 forecasters · community consensus 88% · AI estimate 90% · open for forecasts.