Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

Name: Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
Start: 2026-03-17T10:12:39.072Z
End: 2026-12-31T23:59:59.000Z
Location: DAATAN

What are the chances that Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026? As of Aug 19, 2026: the AI estimate is 54%. · Updated Aug 19, 2026

CreatedCreation date

Mar 17, 2026Mar 17, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2026Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Sources behind the AI estimate(2 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean58% · will

Will happen (1)

ynet.co.il250–66%↑ 66%

כך ארדואן מנצל את המצב - ושואף לדריסת רגל גם בלבנון↑ 66%תמיכה צבאית, משאיות סיוע ודיגיטל: דריסת הרגל השקטה של טורקיה בלבנון–

Author·

komapcA·Reputation 104

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Forecast by komapc · opened Mar 17, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 0 forecasters · AI estimate 54% · open for forecasts.

Author

komapcAReputation 104

Creation date

Mar 17, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

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No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!

Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

Situation

Sources behind the AI estimate(2 publications)

Discussion (0)

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