What are the chances that Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026? As of Aug 19, 2026: the AI estimate is 97%; the community estimate is 63%. · Updated Aug 19, 2026
The Oracle reads this question as already decided — this number is a settlement pin, not a pooled average of the sources.Reported as decided by: jpost.com, bbc.com, al-monitor.com, aa.com.tr, al-monitor.com, dw.com, middleeasteye.net, bbc.com, aljazeera.net, ynet.co.il, middleeasteye.net
includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 134 days
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Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.
Will happen (18)
Won't happen (4)
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Forecast by komapc · opened Mar 10, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 63% · AI estimate 97% · open for forecasts.
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