Dec 31, 2026

Community 55%

A formal, signed ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia will be publicly announced and take effect.

CreatedCreation date

Feb 6, 2026Feb 6, 2026, 10:42 PM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2026Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Context

Recent US-led peace talks in Abu Dhabi between Ukraine and Russia concluded without a breakthrough on a general ceasefire agreement, though a prisoner exchange involving 314 individuals did occur.…

Recent US-led peace talks in Abu Dhabi between Ukraine and Russia concluded without a breakthrough on a general ceasefire agreement, though a prisoner exchange involving 314 individuals did occur. Ukraine has also aligned with Western partners on a multi-tier plan for enforcing future ceasefire agreements and responding to potential violations.

Evidence estimate

Oracul

48%± 4%

TruthMachine Oracle (news-indexer match) · 82 articles

Community 55%

You 50%

AI 48%

Forecasts History

Will happen1

Roman Bar

55%

Won't happen0

—

Sources behind the evidence estimate(82 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracul, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean51% · will

Will happen (10)

lemonde.fr86–76%↑ 76%

kyivpost.com650–90%↑ 90%

Ukraine Allies Agree on Air Defense, Sanctions and Multinational Force↑ 90%Ukraine News Today: Breaking Updates & Live Coverage - September 23, 2026 from Kyiv Post↑ 89%Ukraine News Today: Breaking Updates & Live Coverage - September 24, 2026 from Kyiv Post–Trump Announces Immediate Energy Ceasefire for Ukraine, Russia–US Seeks Ukraine Peace Breakthrough Before Winter as Trump’s Envoys May Return to Moscow for Putin Talks–How Will the Russo-Ukrainian War End?–

azatutyun.am450–86%↑ 83%

Ուկրաինան, ԵՄ-ն և ՄԱԿ-ի 50 երկրներ Ռուսաստանին հրադադարի կոչ են անում↑ 83%Զելենսկին հայտնել է, որ խոսել է ԱՄՆ բանագնացների հետ↑ 86%Ռուսաստանը ցանկանում է վերջ տալ ուկրաինական հակամարտությանը. Լավրով↑ 83%Ռուսաստանը պատրաստ է մեկ օրով հրադադար հաստատել, եթե Ուկրաինան ընտրություններ անցկացնի. Պեսկով–

france24.com284–89%↑ 89%

Zelensky says Ukraine is ready for an energy ceasefire with Russia↑ 89%Zelensky says Ukraine ready to de-escalate if Russia halts strikes↑ 84%

dw.com220–86%↑ 86%

Ukraine updates: 2 killed in Kyiv as 3-day truce ends↑ 86%Trump says Russia, Ukraine agree to 'energy ceasefire'↓ 20%

srugim.co.il219–85%↑ 85%

טראמפ מכריז במפתיע: השגתי הסכם בין רוסיה ואוקראינה - סרוגים↑ 85%מקורבי זלנסקי מכחישים: "אין לנו מידע על ההסכם שטראמפ הכריז עליו" - סרוגים↓ 19%

aljazeera.com229–85%↑ 85%

Zelenskyy says Ukraine will pause attacks if Russia spares infrastructure↑ 85%Trump says Ukraine, Russia agree to ‘energy ceasefire’↓ 29%

rferl.orgA Quiet Ukrainian Counteroffensive, A 'Rout' For Russian Forces↑ 89%

themoscowtimes.comUkraine Wants Specifics From Partners on Halting Strikes, Zelensky Says - The Moscow Times↑ 86%

jpost.com Donald Trump says Ukraine, Russia reached 'energy ceasefire' agreement | The Jerusalem Post↑ 67%

Won't happen (8)

pravda.com.ua156–88%↓ 8%

Ukrainian General Staff explains why "ceasefire" did not take effect on line of contact↓ 8%Zelenskyy says Ukraine has approved long-range operations for October↓ 13%Ukraine sees energy and Black Sea ceasefire as possible key outcome of Zelenskyy-Trump meeting in New York↑ 83%Fifty countries and EU call on Russia to cease fire, US does not support statement↑ 88%Head of Zelenskyy's office: Ceasefire proposal was delivered to Putin, but he did not respond↓ 6%Zelenskyy: We are ready to sign guarantees for the Americans regarding the energy ceasefire↑ 75%Ukraine ready for five ceasefire arrangements, but Russia must agree – Foreign Ministry↑ 77%Ukraine's foreign minister: Russia violated "energy ceasefire" immediately after it was announced↓ 13%Zelenskyy explains steps Ukraine is prepared to take towards energy ceasefire–Zelenskyy ready to sign peace agreement with Russia in Oval Office or Trump's residence↑ 68%Ukraine calls on UN Security Council members to table immediate ceasefire resolution↑ 63%"We will shut down Russia's war machine" – Ukraine's acting defence minister comments on Novorossiysk operation–Zelenskyy: Ukraine has proposed that its partners secure agreement with Russia to halt infrastructure strikes–Russia proposes ceasefire in Kostiantynivka and handover of bodies to Ukraine–Zelenskyy: If Russia wants us to stop hitting refineries, it must stop strikes on our energy system–

aa.com.tr1413–93%↓ 13%

EU agrees to terms to release $7.5B in Peace Facility funds for Ukraine↓ 13%EU Council chief urges immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, calls for pressure on Russia↑ 88%Zelenskyy says late 2026-summer 2027 realistic window for Ukraine peace deal↑ 86%Ukraine, allies urge Russia to accept immediate, unconditional ceasefire↑ 90%Ukraine urges Russia at UN Security Council to accept unconditional ceasefire↑ 93%Ukraine says Russia has not responded to ceasefire proposal covering strikes, front line↑ 91%Zelenskyy doubts Russia will honor energy-target truce announced by Trump↓ 13%Kyiv welcomes Kazakh president's call to 'freeze' ongoing Russia-Ukraine war↓ 18%Ukraine says ready for 'unconditional ceasefire' with Russia↑ 73%Ukraine ready to halt strikes on cities involved in US-mediated peace talks: Zelenskyy↑ 70%Germany’s Merz calls on Russia to return to negotiating table↑ 63%European Commission chief voices support for Ukraine’s call for ceasefire–Zelenskyy says Russia struck power plant after Trump announced energy ceasefire–Trump announces immediate energy ceasefire between Russia, Ukraine–

meduza.io613–50%↓ 23%

Канцлер Германии Фридрих Мерц приехал в Киев — Meduza↓ 23%«Остров Москва». Зеленский ответил на вопрос, что может заставить Путина прекратить войну. Краткий пересказ — Meduza↓ 26%Financial Times: Трамп поторопился с объявлением об энергетическом перемирии между Россией и Украиной — Meduza↓ 13%«Мы готовы. Войну нужно заканчивать». Зеленский — об энергетическом перемирии, которое анонсировал Трамп — Meduza–Война. 1585-й день. Зеленский заявил, что передал «друзьям Путина» мирное предложение. Кому именно, непонятно. Накануне Путин встречался с Лукашенко — Meduza–Reuters: Украина предложила России перемирие в Черном море — Meduza–

theguardian.com320–50%↓ 20%

Ukraine says Russia violated Trump’s ‘energy ceasefire’ – Europe live↓ 20%Zelenskyy says Trump claim of Ukraine and Russia ‘energy ceasefire’ was news to him – live updates–Trump announces partial ceasefire in Ukraine war as Zelenskyy says deal is ‘news to me’–

Guy Bechor215–35%↓ 15%

אזהרה קודרת של זלנסקי, מעכשיו.↓ 15%Iranian state agency Tasnim and IRGC-linked channels announced Iran has cancelled the memorandum of understanding.↓ 35%

pbs.org214–50%↓ 14%

Trump claims Russia and Ukraine agree to 'energy ceasefire' despite continued attacks↓ 14%Zelenskyy says Ukraine will pause strikes on Russia if Kremlin spares critical infrastructure–

nbcnews.comTrump claims Russia and Ukraine agree to energy ceasefire, but Zelenskyy says this is ‘news for me’↓ 25%

tagesschau.deRussland greift trotz angeblicher "Energie-Waffenruhe" weiter Anlagen an↓ 18%

Neutral / unclear (6)

bbc.com450–68%–

Zelensky afirma que Ucrania apoya el "alto el fuego energético" anunciado por Trump, pero Rusia aún no se pronuncia - BBC News Mundo–О чем договорились Зеленский и Трамп - Что это было? - Russian - BBC News Русская служба↑ 68%Дональд Трамп заявил, что Россия и Украина договорились не наносить удары по энергетике друг друга - BBC News Русская служба–Как Трамп заключил «перемирие» между Путиным и Зеленским без них - Что это было? - Russian - BBC News Русская служба–

aljazeera.netما وراء الخبر.. هدنة الطاقة تكشف تباين المواقف الأمريكية والأوكرانية–

upi.comTrump says Russia, Ukraine agree to not attack energy facilities - UPI.com–

coindesk.comPresident Trump declares 'energy ceasefire' between Russia and Ukraine–

yahoo.comUkraine will support energy ceasefire if US ensures Moscow's intent, Zelenskiy says–

independent.co.ukUkraine war live: Russian strikes spark Kyiv fires ahead of Trump-Zelensky meeting–

Author·

Mark Janwuf·ELO 1500

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Forecast by Mark Janwuf · opened Feb 6, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 55% · evidence estimate 48% · open for forecasts.

Author

Mark JanwufELO 1500

Creation date

Feb 6, 2026, 10:42 PM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!