Dec 31, 2026
Community 55%
A formal, signed ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia will be publicly announced and take effect.
CreatedCreation date
Feb 6, 2026Feb 6, 2026, 10:42 PM UTC
ResolvesResolution date
Dec 31, 2026Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Recent US-led peace talks in Abu Dhabi between Ukraine and Russia concluded without a breakthrough on a general ceasefire agreement, though a prisoner exchange involving 314 individuals did occur. Ukraine has also aligned with Western partners on a multi-tier plan for enforcing future ceasefire agreements and responding to potential violations.
Community 55%
You 50%
AI 60%
Forecasts History
Will happen1
Roman Bar
55%
Won't happen0
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Sources behind the AI estimate(1 publication)
Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.
Press lean65% · will
Press leans toward 'will happen' · 65%
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Forecast by Mark Janwuf · opened Feb 6, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 55% · AI estimate 60% · open for forecasts.
Creation date
Feb 6, 2026, 10:42 PM UTC
Resolution date
Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Discussion (0)
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!