All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.

What are the chances that All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026? As of Aug 19, 2026: the AI estimate is 24%; the community estimate is 59%. · Updated Aug 19, 2026

Currently, a significant conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran is ongoing, with reports indicating no immediate end in sight. Despite past promises from President Trump to end wars, his administration has opened a new front against Iran. Historically, phrases like 'the war to end all wars' have been used, but global conflicts persist.

All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.

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