What are the chances that Significant new destruction by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher is reported by credible international organizations or major news outlets by December 31, 2026? As of Aug 18, 2026: the AI estimate is 82%; the community estimate is 99%. · Updated Aug 18, 2026
includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 134 days
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Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.
Will happen (19)
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Forecast by komapc · opened Feb 19, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 99% · AI estimate 82% · open for forecasts.
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