Dec 31, 2026

Community 99%

Significant new destruction by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher is reported by credible international organizations or major news outlets by December 31, 2026.

CreatedCreation date

Feb 19, 2026Feb 19, 2026, 11:21 AM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2026Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Context

Recent reports from Amnesty International accuse the RSF of committing crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing during its campaign to seize El Fasher.…

Recent reports from Amnesty International accuse the RSF of committing crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing during its campaign to seize El Fasher. UN investigators have also submitted additional evidence of genocide, including survivor testimony of rape and mass atrocities.…

Community 99%

You 50%

AI 74%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 88 days

Forecasts History

Will happen1

komapcAuthor

99%

Won't happen0

—

Sources behind the evidence estimate(124 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracul, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean80% · will

Will happen (19)

aljazeera.net3114–98%settling↑ 98%

aa.com.tr269–94%↑ 90%

UNICEF warns half a million civilians at risk amid fighting in El-Obeid, Sudan↑ 90%RSF attacks kill 6, displace more than 1,000 in Sudan: Report↑ 86%Arab League warns of looming humanitarian, security catastrophe in Sudan's El-Obeid↑ 86%RSF-aligned alliance calls Sudan’s El-Obeid city 'legitimate military target' despite international warnings↑ 87%5,000 displaced people arrive in capital of Sudan’s Blue Nile state: Medical group↑ 86%UN migration agency warns RSF attacks could turn Sudan’s El Obeid into ‘another El Fasher’↑ 85%5 killed, 47 injured in RSF drone attack on university dormitory in Sudan: Doctors group↑ 83%2 killed, 20 injured in RSF drone attacks on residential areas in Sudan’s Kordofan↑ 93%8 injured, mostly children, in RSF drone attack on Sudan’s Khartoum↑ 94%At least 330 children killed, injured in Sudan in 1st half of 2026: UNICEF↑ 81%Sudanese rights group says RSF attack killed over 14 civilians in North Kordofan↑ 78%Dozens killed in attacks by RSF-aligned group in Sudan’s South Kordofan: Local medical group↑ 92%RSF drone strike targets power station in northern Sudan↑ 78%Sudanese army says RSF drone attacks hit residential areas in Blue Nile state↑ 91%Sudan’s Sovereignty Council chief says RSF excluded from national dialogue↓ 9%Foreign support for RSF major reason Sudan war persists: Sudan’s prosecutor general↑ 91%Drone strike on Sudan market kills, injures over 30, including children: UNICEF↑ 78%10 killed, dozens wounded in RSF drone strike in Sudan's North Kordofan state: Rights group↑ 90%Over 1,400 people displaced after RSF attack in Sudan’s North Kordofan: UN migration agency↑ 79%4 civilians killed in RSF attacks in Sudan’s North Kordofan: Emergency Room↑ 75%RSF attack kills 4 in Sudan’s North Kordofan: Doctors network↑ 73%4 civilians killed in RSF drone strikes in Sudan’s South Kordofan: Medical group↑ 77%RSF attack in Sudan killed more than 25 civilians in North Kordofan, says medical group↑ 70%Sudan’s army says it inflicted heavy losses on RSF, allies in Blue Nile state↑ 72%Sudanese army says it killed RSF fighters, destroyed 9 vehicles in Blue Nile–Sudanese authorities accuse paramilitary RSF of attacking civilian facilities in El-Obeid–

aljazeera.com1950–97%settling↑ 97%

Amnesty says RSF committed ethnic cleansing in Sudan’s el-Fashersettling↑ 97%Inside the secret battle to document RSF abuses in Sudansettling↑ 93%Escaping Darfur: Mothers face starvation under trees in Chadsettling↑ 92%Amnesty says RSF committed ethnic cleansing in Sudan’s el-Fashersettling↑ 90%Dozens of countries warn of atrocities amid escalation in Sudan’s el-Obeid↑ 89%Thousands of children at risk as RSF besieges Sudan’s el-Obeid: Charity↑ 89%UN sounds ‘red alert’ over human rights catastrophe in Sudan’s el-Obeid↑ 87%UN probe finds mass killings, gang rapes by Sudan’s RSF amount to genocide↑ 83%Fears of new massacre in Sudan’s el-Obeid: What do we know?↑ 86%Can Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces take control of el-Obeid?↑ 83%El-Obeid is surrounded by the RSF: Could it be the next el-Fasher?↑ 83%‘Digging with a needle’: Generals stall peace as Sudan’s el-Obeid burns↑ 83%US raises concern as RSF forces encircle Sudanese city of el-Obeid↑ 85%Why el-Obeid matters as Sudan’s war enters a new phase↑ 80%Sudan’s El Obeid faces intensifying RSF drone attacks↑ 78%Sudan’s el-Obeid: Life on the edge of collapse↑ 80%Has the army turned the page on control of western Sudan?↑ 69%The battle for Kordofan: The corridor linking Sudan’s east and west–‘El Obeid crisis could be worse than El Fasher,’ warns ex-UN official–

allafrica.com1250–92%settling↑ 92%

Sudan: 'El Obeid Must Not Become the Next Crime Scene' Warn UN Investigatorssettling↑ 92%Sudan: Blood On Foreign Powers' Hands↑ 91%Sudan's People Subject to 'Relentless' Drone Strikes in El Obeid↑ 89%Sudan's Aid Crisis Is Also a Crisis of Accountability↑ 88%Sudan War - a Conflict Sustained By Weapons, Fragmentation, and Diplomatic Inertia↑ 90%Sudan: UN Raises Alarm Over a Sharp Rise in Human Rights Abuses and Cholera-Related Deaths in Sudan↑ 81%Sudan: Risk of Imminent Atrocities in and Around El Obeid Requires Urgent Action↑ 80%Sudan: UN Condemns RSF Escalation Around El Obeid As Tasees Backs Ceasefire↑ 77%Sudan: RSF Training Camps, Supply Routes in Libya Fuelling Sudan's War - 'What We've Uncovered Is Really Just the Tip of the Iceberg'↑ 77%Sudan: U.S. Senators Press Trump Administration to Act in Sudan↑ 77%Sudan: Air Strike Kills At Least 24 Civilians in North Kordofan, RSF Attack Leaves Nine Dead↑ 75%Sudan: Chemical Weapons and Regional Interests Confront 'Double Standards'–

middleeasteye.net981–94%settling↑ 87%

UK failed to stop el-Fasher massacre because it feared the UAE, MPs toldsettling↑ 87%Sudanese victims ask ICC to investigate Emiratis over RSF atrocities in el-Fashersettling↑ 86%UN: RSF used rape and sexual slavery as weapons of war in Sudan since 2023↑ 94%Inside the UAE-backed RSF siege of Sudan's el-Obeid↑ 93%RSF committed crimes against humanity in Sudan's el-Fasher, Amnesty says↑ 92%UN investigators provide additional evidence of genocide by RSF in Sudan’s el-Fasher↑ 89%Sudanese in Kordofan's Bara the latest civilians to be forced into battle↑ 88%RSF drone strikes shatter sense of optimism in Sudan's el-Obeid↑ 91%How the UAE continued supporting Sudan's RSF through Haftar and Libya↑ 81%

bbc.com514–87%↑ 87%

الحرب في السودان: المحكمة الجنائية الدولية تُبلغ بي بي سي بإحراز تقدم في التحقيق في جرائم الحرب - BBC News عربي↑ 87%الأبيض: مخاوف أممية من تكرار فظائع الفاشر ومنظمة العفو الدولية تتهم قوات الدعم السريع بـ"التطهير العرقي" - BBC News عربي↑ 83%السودان: آلاف النازحين بلا ملاذ آمن مع تقدم الدعم السريع نحو الأبيض - BBC News عربي↑ 75%الحرب في السودان: القوات الحكومية توسّع نطاق سيطرتها على حساب الدعم السريع في كردفان - BBC News عربي↓ 14%حرب السودان: مسيّرات تضرب الدمازين وسط اتساع القتال وتحذيرات من خطر المجاعة - BBC News عربي–

dw.com581–88%settling↑ 86%

Sudan civil war: When drones strike the classroomsettling↑ 86%Sudan's RSF accused of crimes against humanity in el-Fashersettling↑ 88%RSF committed ethnic cleansing in el-Fasher, Sudan — Amnesty↑ 86%Sudan civil war: Civilians used as 'human shields'↑ 86%Sudan: UN warns of mass atrocities in El-Obeid↑ 81%

lemonde.fr450–88%settling↑ 88%

« Nous n’allons plus tenir très longtemps » : au Soudan, les habitants d’El-Obeid, assiégée par les paramilitaires, craignent un nouveau massacresettling↑ 88%Au Soudan, la crainte d’un assaut des paramilitaires sur El-Obeid↑ 80%Soudan : alerte rouge de l’ONU face à la « catastrophe » d’El-Obeid↑ 71%Guerre au Soudan : des preuves supplémentaires de l’existence d’un programme d’armes chimiques en 2024–

theguardian.com386–91%settling↑ 91%

Sudan’s RSF committed crimes against humanity in El Fasher, Amnesty sayssettling↑ 91%‘The situation is terrible’: aid workers on life in Sudanese city pummelled by drone strikes↑ 88%Humanitarian crisis worsening in refuge for civilians fleeing Sudan’s civil war↑ 86%

semafor.comUN warns of ‘catastrophe’ unfolding in Sudansettling↑ 91%

rfi.frSudan's RSF paramilitaries accused of crimes against humanity in El Fashersettling↑ 90%

countervortex.orgUN investigation finds genocide in Sudan↑ 89%

oilprice.comSudan Could Become the Red Sea’s Next Energy Security Flashpoint | OilPrice.com↑ 88%

responsiblestatecraft.orgA massacre is looming in Sudan. Can the US stop it?settling↑ 87%

france24.comUN issues 'red alert' over human rights catastrophe in Sudan's El-Obeid↑ 86%

hornreview.orgEl Obeid and the Lessons Unlearned from El Fasher in Sudan↑ 85%

tagesschau.deAngst vor dem nächsten Blutbad im Sudan↑ 85%

yahoo.comFears of a massacre in this city on the front line of Sudan's war↑ 81%

finance.yahoo.comSudan Could Become the Red Sea’s Next Energy Security Flashpoint↑ 77%

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Forecast by komapc · opened Feb 19, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 99% · evidence estimate 74% · open for forecasts.

Author

komapcAELO 1404

Creation date

Feb 19, 2026, 11:21 AM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

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