Dec 31, 2026
Community 76%
At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.
CreatedCreation date
Apr 5, 2026Apr 5, 2026, 02:24 PM UTC
ResolvesResolution date
Dec 31, 2026Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Recent articles confirm Iran shot down two U.S. military aircraft three days ago, identifying one as a fighter jet. One service member was rescued, with another still missing amidst escalating conflict. This reinforces the significant risks in current military engagements.
Community 76%
You 50%
AI 77%
includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 171 days
Probability over time
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Forecasts History
Will happen3
Won't happen0
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Forecast by komapc · opened Apr 5, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 3 forecasters · community consensus 76% · AI estimate 77% · open for forecasts.
Author
K
komapcAReputation 145Creation date
Apr 5, 2026, 02:24 PM UTC
Resolution date
Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Discussion (0)
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!