What are the chances that Vladimir Putin will not die by December 31, 2026?

As of Oct 11, 2026: the evidence estimate is 75%; the community estimate is 43%.

Dec 31, 2026

Community 43%

Vladimir Putin will not die by December 31, 2026.

CreatedCreation date

Mar 31, 2026Mar 31, 2026, 09:59 AM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2026Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Context

Recent articles highlight a perceived alignment of interests between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, alongside Trump's continued criticism of NATO and US allies.…

Recent articles highlight a perceived alignment of interests between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, alongside Trump's continued criticism of NATO and US allies. These developments further detail the potential shifts in US alliance dynamics, which could indirectly influence Putin's geopolitical standing.

Last updated: Apr 16, 2026, 09:44 PM UTC

Based on

ekathimerini.com

Evidence estimate

Oracul

70%± 14%

TruthMachine Oracle (news-indexer match) · 20 articles

Community 43%

You 50%

AI 75%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 81 days

Forecasts History

Will happen2

Polina Ber

55%

Yana ElisonianAuthor

55%

Won't happen2

Arkady

komapc

55%

Sources behind the evidence estimate(47 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracul, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean48% · will

Will happen (11)

independent.co.uk433–94%↑ 94%

Putin will have Trump to thank for election victory in rubber-stamp parliament↑ 94%Putin’s friends finally tell him the truth: Get out of Ukraine to save yourself–Putin will never make peace in Ukraine, opponent warns. Here’s why↓ 33%Putin knows he’s in trouble. It’s time to kick him while he’s down↓ 33%

foreignaffairs.com434–88%↑ 84%

Putin Will Not Yield↑ 84%How Putin Escalates↑ 88%Putin Will Turn a Cease-Fire Into a Weapon↓ 34%After Putin↑ 63%

kyivpost.com328–93%↑ 93%

Putin’s Default Mode: When in Doubt, Rattle the Nuclear Saber↑ 93%Putin Shifts Travel to Siberia to Dodge Drone Attacks↓ 28%Putin's Approval Drops 5% in One Week, Marking Steepest Decline Since 2022 Mobilization Crisis↓ 33%

yahoo.com350–65%↑ 65%

Opinion - Putin, now losing in Ukraine, may resort to a desperate gamble in the Baltics↑ 65%Opinion - This winter, Putin will feed even more of Russia’s youth into the meat grinder–Putin says Russia is winning on battlefield, will not negotiate with 'terrorists'–

france24.comDoes Putin travel without security?↑ 89%

novayagazeta.euNovosibirsk residents told to stay inside and avoid windows during Putin’s visit — Novaya Gazeta Europe↑ 86%

tagesschau.deDuma-Wahl: Putins Sieg an der Zahlenfront↑ 83%

news.northeastern.edu‘It’s a remarkable feat.’ In power since 1999, how Vladimir Putin became a Russian leader rivaled only by Josef Stalin↑ 74%

jamestown.orgPutin’s Aging Inner Circle Resembles Brezhnev Elite↑ 73%

ynet.co.ilמשבר הדלק, סימני הקריסה - והחייל שאיים במרד נגד פוטין: "הצבא יפנה נגד הקרמלין"↑ 67%

aljazeera.comRussia’s presidential election: Putin, power, the possibility of protests↑ 65%

Won't happen (15)

meduza.io518–72%↓ 18%

Умер бывший глава Минобороны РФ Сергей Иванов — Meduza↓ 18%Путин впервые за семь месяцев выехал за пределы Москвы и Петербурга — Meduza↓ 25%Путин заявил, что Россия готова вести переговоры с Украиной «на базе стамбульских договоренностей» 2022 года — Meduza↑ 72%Рейтинг Путина опять падает. Но теперь с рекордной скоростью за всю войну — Meduza↑ 70%ФОМ: доверие россиян к Путину упало до минимума за всю войну — Meduza↓ 33%

bbc.com419–67%↓ 19%

El artista ruso crítico de Putin que fue asesinado a tiros en Polonia - BBC News Mundo↓ 19%«Ущерб есть». Путин об атаках Украины, дефиците бензина, договоренностях Анкориджа и заявлениях Лукашенко — главное из интервью Зарубину - BBC News Русская служба↓ 29%Putin claims landslide in Russian election and scorns US democracy↓ 30%Почему рейтинг Путина падает? - Что это было? - Russian - BBC News Русская служба↑ 67%

themoscowtimes.com230–50%↓ 30%

Putin’s Job Approval Rating Sees Sharpest Weekly Drop Since Ukraine Invasion, State Pollster Shows - The Moscow Times↓ 30%Putin’s Longtime Ally Sergei Ivanov Dies at 73 - The Moscow Times–

aljazeera.net220–85%↓ 20%

بوتين يرفض "هدنة بشروط كييف".. هل تتجه الحرب إلى جولة تصعيد جديدة؟↓ 20%الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين يزور جزر الكوريل المتنازع عليها مع اليابان↑ 85%

pravda.com.uaFastest decline in Putin's rating since start of war recorded in Russia↓ 35%

lemonde.frVladimir Poutine, un président bunkérisé dans une Russie mise sous cloche↓ 33%

gisreportsonline.comRussian election 2024: Will Putin stay for another round? – GIS Reports↓ 28%

aa.com.trPutin says Russia developing despite pressure from 'collective West'↓ 28%

dw.comRussian artist critical of Putin shot dead in Poland↓ 27%

thehill.comPutin’s reign may not survive the impending fall of Crimea↓ 25%

Ben Caspit Ben Caspit ברצועה מדווחים שהנ"ל חוסל↓ 25%

cnn.comRussia’s presidential election is nearing. We already know who the winner will be | CNN↓ 22%

english.elpais.comVladimir Putin aspires to rule Russia for 30 years by running in an election without competitors↓ 21%

statista.comPutin approval rating Russia 2026| Statista↓ 21%

atlanticcouncil.orgWe should not fear a post-Putin Russia↓ 20%

Neutral / unclear (1)

google.com250–50%–

Will Vladimir Putin stay in office till 2036? 'Too soon to say, only God knows', says Russian President–Russian electoral authority officially declares Putin winner in presidential poll–

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Forecast by Yana Elisonian · opened Mar 31, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 4 forecasters · community consensus 43% · evidence estimate 75% · open for forecasts.

Author

Yana ElisonianELO 1500

Creation date

Mar 31, 2026, 09:59 AM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Discussion (0)

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