What are the chances that The United States will deploy ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026? As of Aug 20, 2026: the AI estimate is 56%; the community estimate is 51%. · Updated Aug 20, 2026
includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 134 days
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Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.
Will happen (22)
Won't happen (7)
Neutral / unclear (4)
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Forecast by komapc · opened Mar 21, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 51% · AI estimate 56% · open for forecasts.
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