What are the chances that US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026? As of Aug 20, 2026: the AI estimate is 56%; the community estimate is 60%. · Updated Aug 20, 2026
includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 134 days
Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.
Will happen (18)
Won't happen (6)
Neutral / unclear (3)
Forecast by Ilya · opened Mar 27, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 2 forecasters · community consensus 60% · AI estimate 56% · open for forecasts.