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US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.

Creation date
Resolution date
The U.S. has deployed ground-capable forces, including airborne troops and Marines, to the Middle East as tensions with Iran escalate and a ceasefire proposal is rejected. President Trump is reportedly considering a risky ground operation to seize Kharg Island, Iran's critical oil export hub, to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Such an operation, while potentially choking the Iranian regime, carries significant risks of dragging American troops into an open-ended conflict and facing strong Iranian defenses.
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Community 60%
You 50%
AI 28%

Forecasts History

Will happen1
Won't happen1

Sources behind the AI estimate(1 publication)

Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean18% · will
Press leans toward 'won't happen' · 82%
Author·IlyaIlya·Reputation 100

Discussion (1)

Polina Ber
·3 months ago

just won't happen god damn it