What are the chances that Turkey will acquire nuclear weapons by May 6, 2029? As of Aug 4, 2026: the AI estimate is 58%; the community estimate is 27%. · Updated Aug 4, 2026
includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 991 days
Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.
Will happen (2)
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Forecast by Dor Moriah · opened May 6, 2026 · resolves May 6, 2029 · 3 forecasters · community consensus 27% · AI estimate 58% · open for forecasts.
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