komapc

@komapc

JoinedFebruary 2026

All112 Geopolitics62 Conflict35 politics29 Middle East27 Technology18 Israel14 Elections12 Business11

Skill Rating

1782

± 132 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

created(102)participated(108)resolved(30)

AI: 59±9%Economy US Politics

Donald Trump will restore 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, at least temporarily, by December 31, 2026.

komapc

3AI: 66±5%Geopolitics Conflict

At least one more drone will fall in one of the Baltic countries after August 15 and by September 15, 2026.

komapc

← Prev1 / 6Next →

AI: 32±6%AI politics

A federal bill explicitly preempting state AI laws is enacted by the U.S. Congress by August 31, 2026.

komapc

AI: 58±9%Geopolitics Middle East

Israel and Lebanon will sign a formal agreement on security or border arrangements by November 6, 2026.

komapc

1AI: 38±7%Geopolitics Conflict

The IDF will begin withdrawing forces beyond the Yellow Line in Gaza before September 20, 2026.

komapc

1AI: 48±4%Geopolitics Conflict

The United States grants Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missile systems by October 31, 2026.

komapc

1AI: 76±7%Technology Business

Apple will unveil a foldable iPhone at its September 2026 event.

komapc

1AI: 61±10%Economy US Politics

The U.S. unemployment rate for August 2026 comes in at 4.2% or higher.

komapc

AI: 43±8%Geopolitics Migration

Spain will complete construction of the announced Ceuta breakwater containment barrier by September 1, 2026.

komapc

2AI: 63±4%Technology Geopolitics

Telegram will be officially forbidden in Russia by December 31, 2026.

komapc

3AI: 59±4%Geopolitics Iran

Iran will initiate a direct military strike against Israel before Israel initiates a direct military strike against Iran by July 22, 2031.

komapc

1AI: 49±6%Geopolitics Conflict

The United States will conduct a ground invasion of Kharg Island by December 31, 2026

komapc

2AI: 50±49%Geopolitics politics

The Lukashenko will not be a leader of Belarus by July 17, 2031.

komapc

AI: 58±9%Geopolitics Middle East

Oman will join the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026.

komapc

Wrong

1Sports Football

England will win their FIFA World Cup 2026 semi-final match against Argentina on July 15, 2026.

komapc

Wrong

1Sports College Sports

The University of Kentucky (UK) will win a game played on July 15, 2026.

komapc

3AI: 58±4%Geopolitics Conflict

The Ukrainian army takes back, at least temporarily, a part of occupied Crimea by December 31, 2026.

komapc

1AI: 67±3%Geopolitics Middle East

Rockets or drones are launched directly from Israel to Iran, or from Iran to Israel, by 31 August 2026.

komapc

3AI: 49±13%Geopolitics Middle East

A Jewish settlement, official or unofficial, will be established in Lebanese territory by December 31, 2026.

komapc

4AI: 58±8%Geopolitics Defense

The U.S. will formally approve an F-35 sale to Turkey by December 31, 2026.

komapc

Performance

ELO Rating1439global (head-to-head)

Glicko-2μ 1782global · ± 132 uncertainty

Brier Score0.25025 scored · lower is better

Accuracy58%31 resolved

TruthScore-0.0345avg peer / prediction

Wtd. Peer Score-0.0361Metaculus-style decay

Peer Score-0.247 scored

ROI+0.13RS / resolved prediction

AI Score+0.2615 scored

Reputation104.3 RSglobal · pool-based

Peer score by topic

Geopolitics-0.010(3)

Sports-0.004(3)

Middle East-0.011(2)

politics-0.103(2)

Conflict-0.040(1)

US Politics+0.018(1)

Elections-0.200(1)

Europe-0.007(1)

Glicko-2 Skill History

Loading…