k
komapc
A@komapc
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1715
± 232 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1545global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1715global · ± 232 uncertainty
Brier Score0.28210 scored · lower is better
Accuracy63%16 resolved
ROI-1.63RS / resolved prediction
AI Score+0.482 scored
Reputation72.3 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History
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AI: 40%GeopoliticsConflict
The Houthi movement will lose control of at least one significant territory currently under its control by December 31, 2026.
AI: 42±30%EnergyEconomy
The price of Brent crude oil will reach or exceed $130 per barrel on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) before December 31, 2026.
Draft
APECEconomy
APEC will announce at least one major change, such as a new member, a withdrawal, or a significant structural reform, by December 31, 2026.
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At least three additional US states will pass comprehensive right-to-repair legislation by December 31, 2026.
1commitments
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komapcA
AI: 60%EntertainmentSports
The Netflix documentary 'Untold: Chess Mates' will have a Tomatometer score of 70% or higher on Rotten Tomatoes by July 31, 2026.
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Iran will officially agree to give up all its enriched uranium by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
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komapcA
Wrong
3GeopoliticsIran
Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran will commence by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
—
Israel will officially implement a nationwide universal basic income (UBI) program for its citizens by April 19, 2036.
2commitments
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komapcA
AI: 35%GeopoliticsUS Politics
President Trump will order the deployment of US ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.
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D. Gukesh will lose his World Chess Champion title in his next title defense match by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
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komapcA
—
The United States will formally withdraw its membership from the United Nations by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
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komapcA
AI: 5%GeopoliticsUS Politics
The United States will formally withdraw from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by December 31, 2026.
Wrong
3GeopoliticsConflict
Between April 15, 2026, and April 22, 2026, no international commercial passenger flights to or from Israel will be canceled specifically due to the conflict with Iran.
3commitments
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komapcA
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.
3commitments
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komapcA
—
Likud will win the next general election in Israel held by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
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komapcA
—
A publicly reported congress or conference held in Israel will have exactly 50 participants by December 31, 2026.
1commitments
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komapcA
—
Esperanto Wikipedia will have more than 400,000 articles by December 31, 2026.
1commitments
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komapcA
—
Javokhir Sindarov will reach a FIDE standard rating of 2800 by December 31, 2026.
1commitments
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komapcA
—
At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
—
The price of Brent crude oil will reach or exceed $200 per barrel before December 31, 2026.
2commitments
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komapcA