What are the chances that A fault-tolerant quantum computer will be available to commercial users before January 1, 2030? As of Aug 22, 2026: the AI estimate is 61%. · Updated Aug 22, 2026
includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 1228 days
Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.
Will happen (2)
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Forecast by komapc · opened Aug 22, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2029 · 0 forecasters · AI estimate 61% · open for forecasts.
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