k
komapc
A@komapc
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1715
± 232 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1545global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1715global · ± 232 uncertainty
Brier Score · Geopolitics0.3697 scored · lower is better
Accuracy · Geopolitics58%12 resolved
ROI-6.6RS / resolved prediction
AI Score · Geopolitics+0.482 scored
RS · Geopolitics-79.3
Reputation72.3 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Geopolitics
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AI: 54±12%politicsGeopolitics
Bolivia's nationwide state of emergency will be officially lifted by December 31, 2026.
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Volodymyr Zelensky will meet Vladimir Putin by July 17, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
Correct
2GeopoliticsConflict
A memorandum of understanding (MoU) or a peace deal between Iran and the USA will be officially signed by June 20, 2026.
2commitments
K
komapcA
Pending
1politicsElections
Nikol Pashinyan will win the Armenian parliamentary elections held on June 7, 2026.
1commitments
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komapcA
—
The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
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komapcA
—
A new military conflict will begin in Africa before December 3, 2026.
1commitments
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komapcA
—
Armenia will join the European Union by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
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komapcA
—
The European Union will admit at least two new member states by May 28, 2028.
1commitments
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komapcA
—
Iran will continue to enforce its two-tier internet access regime for the general public by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
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komapcA
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
Ukraine will not launch a direct military attack on Moscow by May 9, 2026.
3commitments
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komapcA
—
Israel will establish a long-term military occupation of a part of southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
1commitments
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komapcA
—
Vladimir Putin will officially receive less than 60% of the total votes in the next Russian presidential election held by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
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komapcA
AI: 40%GeopoliticsConflict
The Houthi movement will lose control of at least one significant territory currently under its control by December 31, 2026.
AI: 42±30%EnergyEconomy
The price of Brent crude oil will reach or exceed $130 per barrel on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) before December 31, 2026.
Draft
APECEconomy
APEC will announce at least one major change, such as a new member, a withdrawal, or a significant structural reform, by December 31, 2026.
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Iran will officially agree to give up all its enriched uranium by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
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komapcA
Wrong
3GeopoliticsIran
Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran will commence by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
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komapcA
AI: 35%GeopoliticsUS Politics
President Trump will order the deployment of US ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.
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The United States will formally withdraw its membership from the United Nations by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
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komapcA