What are the chances that The global fertility rate in 2050 will be less than 2 children per woman?

As of Sep 23, 2026: the evidence estimate is 76%; the community estimate is 40%.

Dec 31, 2050

Community 40%

The global fertility rate in 2050 will be less than 2 children per woman.

CreatedCreation date

Aug 22, 2026Aug 22, 2026, 02:09 PM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2050Dec 31, 2050, 11:59 PM UTC

Context

Global fertility rates have been steadily declining, falling from about 4 children per woman five decades ago to 2.2 today.…

Global fertility rates have been steadily declining, falling from about 4 children per woman five decades ago to 2.2 today. Many countries, including India, are already below the replacement level of 2.1. Experts are discussing the implications of this 'fertility freefall' and 'crisis' for society and the economy.

Based on

sciencedirect.com

Evidence estimate

Oracul

76%± 21%

TruthMachine Oracle (news-indexer match) · 10 articles

Community 40%

You 50%

AI 76%

Forecasts History

Will happen0

—

Won't happen1

andrey1bar

40%

Sources behind the evidence estimate(10 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracul, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean77% · will

Will happen (8)

aa.com.tr212–92%↑ 92%

Births fall by more than half in 6 Greek regions over 15 years↑ 92%Smoking can reduce fertility in both women, men: WHO↓ 12%

prb.orgBeyond the Headlines: What's Really Happening With Global Fertility? - Population Reference Bureau↑ 96%

theatlantic.comThe Great Depopulation↑ 94%

scitechdaily.comThe World’s Biggest Population Fear Has Flipped – and It Could Change Everything↑ 93%

al-monitor.comMaghreb sees demographic shift with fertility at historic low↑ 92%

aljazeera.netظاهرة "الطفل الوحيد" تعيد تعريف الأسرة في المجتمعات الغربية↑ 91%

aljazeera.comIndia’s fertility rate falls below replacement level: Why it matters↑ 91%

derekthompson.orgThe Global Fertility Crisis Is Worse Than You Probably Think↑ 91%

Won't happen (1)

Guy Bechorמה זה קייטנת הג'יהאד?↓ 15%

Author·

komapcA·ELO 1404

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Forecast by komapc · opened Aug 22, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2050 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 40% · evidence estimate 76% · open for forecasts.

Author

komapcAELO 1404

Creation date

Aug 22, 2026, 02:09 PM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2050, 11:59 PM UTC

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!