The global fertility rate in 2050 will be less than 2 children per woman.

Dec 31, 2050

Community 50%

The global fertility rate in 2050 will be less than 2 children per woman.

What are the chances that The global fertility rate in 2050 will be less than 2 children per woman? As of Aug 22, 2026: the AI estimate is 75%. · Updated Aug 22, 2026

CreatedCreation date

Aug 22, 2026Aug 22, 2026, 02:09 PM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2050Dec 31, 2050, 11:59 PM UTC

Tags

Economy Health Demographics

Global fertility rates have been steadily declining, falling from about 4 children per woman five decades ago to 2.2 today. Many countries, including India, are already below the replacement level of 2.1. Experts are discussing the implications of this 'fertility freefall' and 'crisis' for society and the economy.

Community 50%

You 50%

AI 75%

Sources behind the AI estimate(7 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean82% · will

Will happen (6)

P

prb.orgBeyond the Headlines: What's Really Happening With Global Fertility? - Population Reference Bureau↑ 96%

T

theatlantic.comThe Great Depopulation↑ 94%

S

scitechdaily.comThe World’s Biggest Population Fear Has Flipped – and It Could Change Everything↑ 93%

A

al-monitor.comMaghreb sees demographic shift with fertility at historic low↑ 92%

A

aljazeera.comIndia’s fertility rate falls below replacement level: Why it matters↑ 91%

D

derekthompson.orgThe Global Fertility Crisis Is Worse Than You Probably Think↑ 91%

Won't happen (1)

GB

Guy Bechorמה זה קייטנת הג'יהאד?↓ 15%

Author·

komapcA·Reputation 104

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Forecast by komapc · opened Aug 22, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2050 · 0 forecasters · AI estimate 75% · open for forecasts.

Author

komapcAReputation 104

Creation date

Aug 22, 2026, 02:09 PM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2050, 11:59 PM UTC

Tags

Economy Health Demographics

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!