What are the chances that Narendra Modi will not be the Prime Minister of India by December 31, 2028?

As of Oct 15, 2026: the evidence estimate is 65%; the community estimate is 9%.

Dec 31, 2028

Community 9%

Narendra Modi will not be the Prime Minister of India by December 31, 2028.

CreatedCreation date

Sep 1, 2026Sep 1, 2026, 12:54 PM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2028Dec 31, 2028, 11:59 PM UTC

Community 9%

You 50%

AI 65%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 808 days

Will happen0

—

Won't happen1

Publications that fed the Oracul, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean67% · will

Will happen (4)

aljazeera.com363–80%↑ 80%

Won't happen (1)

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Forecast by komapc · opened Sep 1, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2028 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 9% · evidence estimate 65% · open for forecasts.

Author

Creation date

Sep 1, 2026, 12:54 PM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2028, 11:59 PM UTC

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