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Retro Analysis

The annual inflation rate in the US, as published on August 12, 2026, will be 3.4% or higher.

RESOLVED CORRECT

Aug 12, 2026

The annual inflation rate in the US, as published on August 12, 2026, will be 3.4% or higher.

Did this come true: The annual inflation rate in the US, as published on August 12, 2026, will be 3.4% or higher? Yes, this came true. · Updated Aug 13, 2026

CreatedCreation date

Aug 6, 2026Aug 6, 2026, 12:53 PM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Aug 12, 2026Aug 12, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Tags

US Politics Economy Inflation

Resolved based on the official annual inflation rate in the US, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on or around August 12, 2026. If the reported rate is 3.4% or higher, the forecast will be fulfilled. Otherwise, it will not be fulfilled.

Community 50%

You 50%

AI 97%

The Oracle reads this question as already decided — this number is a settlement pin, not a pooled average of the sources.Reported as decided by: semafor.com, aa.com.tr, pbs.org, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com, aljazeera.com, cnbc.com, finance.yahoo.com, aljazeera.net, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com

Resolution

Resolved as correct on Aug 17, 2026

The forecast states that the annual inflation rate in the US, as published on August 12, 2026, will be 3.4% or higher. According to CNBC, published on August 12, 2026, "the annual inflation rate [for July] at 3.4%". The New York Times, also published on August 12, 2026, corroborates this, stating, "The Consumer Price Index for July showed prices rose 3.4 percent from a year ago". Since 3.4% meets the condition of "3.4% or higher", the forecast is fulfilled.

Evidence:

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/12/cpi-inflation-report-july-2026.html
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/08/12/business/inflation-cpi-report

Sources behind the AI estimate(105 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean67% · will

Press leans toward 'will happen' · 67%

Will happen (13)

F

finance.yahoo.com6813–98%settling↑ 98%

S&P 500 hits record high after July CPI data; CoreWeave stock jumps 21%settling↑ 98%US consumer prices increase as expected in Julysettling↑ 98%US inflation cooled again but still outpaced paychecks in Julysettling↑ 98%U.S. CPI rose 0.1% in July 2026, annual inflation at 3.4%settling↑ 98%Seniors could see a bigger raise in 2027, according to new Social Security COLA estimatesettling↑ 91%July inflation eased, despite recent energy shockssettling↑ 78%July inflation eased up, despite recent energy shockssettling↑ 78%Interest Rates Could Still Rise in September: 5 High-Yield Passive Income Stocks Will Benefit↑ 83%The Latest Inflation Data Is Good News for the Stock Market. Here's Why.↑ 85%US Inflation Eases in June as Consumer Prices Decline and Economic Growth Slows↓ 18%Cooler CPI inflation reading bolsters case for Fed to hold rates in September↓ 13%AI Making Life More Expensive for You? Federal Reserve Says 'Upward Pressure' Likely to Sustain for Now↑ 85%There’s no escape from inflation as a perfect storm of the ‘Godzilla’ El Niño, AI boom, Trump tariffs, fuel crunch, and Ukraine war keep prices high↑ 83%Wallet check: Food, gas, fun. There's no escaping high prices.↑ 81%NY Fed finds little change in inflation expectations in July↑ 80%CPI Surprise: Inflation Drops Sharper Than Expected, Lifting Crypto Outlook↓ 13%Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Just Got Great News↓ 19%Despite Falling Oil Prices, There's Now a 73% Chance of an Interest Rate Hike by September -- Here Are the 2 Culprits to Blame↑ 79%Inflation cooled off in June as energy prices slid↓ 17%US core inflation cools to lowest since February, dimming case for Fed rate hike↓ 17%Prediction: Today's Inflation Report Will Contain a Much-Needed Silver Lining, but Also Highlight Something Sinister↑ 78%This 8-Word Statement From Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the FOMC Is a Potential Game Changer for Wall Street↑ 78%This Indicator Hasn’t Been This High in 4 Years. It Means the Fed Could Raise Rates in 2026↑ 77%There's Now an 82% Chance of a Fed Rate Hike by mid-September -- Here's Why↑ 76%Wall Street marks time ahead of inflation reading↑ 75%Oil Prices Are Plunging, but Trumpflation Is Getting Worse -- Here's Why↑ 80%Economist Mark Zandi Blames Trump Tariffs, Restrictive Immigration Policies for Higher Cost of Living: 'High Inflation Is a Policy Choice'↑ 78%The Federal Reserve's Initial August Inflation Forecast Has Arrived, and It Contains a Glaring Red Flag That Can Come Back to Bite Wall Street↓ 18%Inflation Isn't Just a Trumpflation Problem Any Longer -- There's a New Culprit, and It Has Potentially Dire Implications for Wall Street↑ 78%June CPI Set to Show US Inflation Cooled as Fuel Prices Fell↓ 25%Inflation-hit Americans earn up to $150 a month in crypto↑ 69%Fed Flags a Fresh Inflation Threat That Could Rattle Markets↑ 79%Fed Rate Hikes Dead? Producer Prices Fall by Largest Amount Since Pandemic↓ 21%Fed's Waller warns rate hike possible, urges caution on inflation↑ 77%J.P. Morgan drops Fed rate bombshell over Warsh, inflation↓ 27%Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Blunt 2-Word Statement on Inflation That Could Determine Interest Rates in 2026↑ 75%Wallet check: Gas prices are cooling, but inflation still stings↑ 73%NY Fed's John Williams warns rate hikes on table if inflation persists↑ 79%Nucor Corporation (NUE) Stock Forecasts↑ 70%Softer U.S. Inflation Data Points to Stronger Wall Street Open: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Futures↑ 75%Will July CPI Reset the Fed, Bitcoin, and Every Major Market?↑ 76%Inflation Slowed to 3.5% in June, as Americans Got a Break From Gasoline Prices↑ 78%Trumpflation Is Evolving Into a 3-Headed Monster, and Wall Street Will End Up Paying the Price↑ 82%An Inflation Double Whammy Awaits Wall Street, Making a Stock Market Crash Likelier Under President Donald Trump↑ 79%Fed may need to raise benchmark rate as inflation heats up, Waller says↑ 72%Interest Rates May Do Something Last Seen in 2022. The Stock Market Will Make a Big Move Afterward if History Repeats.↑ 77%What to Expect in Markets This Week: July Inflation Data, Plus Updates on US Consumer Spending and Sentiment↑ 70%Kevin Warsh May Have Just Caught a Massive Break as Inflation Suddenly Cools↓ 26%Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve Just Issued an 11-Word Warning to Wall Street. Here's What History Says Comes Next.↑ 71%Why Did the Commodity Complex Remind Me of the Bangles to Start the Week?↑ 68%The 2027 COLA Adds $98 a Month. Inflation Takes Most of It Back.↑ 68%Forget the Fed Meeting! The Most Important Inflation Metric Is Being Released Today.↑ 68%Wall Street closes higher as cooling inflation lifts chip stocks, rate hopes↓ 28%CPI inflation falls to 3.5% in June as gas prices drop during Iran war lull↑ 70%2 key checks on AI infrastructure and inflation: What to watch this week↑ 67%Fed's message to Congress: We will bring down inflation↑ 70%Social Security COLA Update: What Retirees Should Watch Before the 2027 Announcement–Inflation Eased in June, but There’s More in the Pipeline–Five key market events investors should follow this week–The Federal Reserve Just Released Its August Inflation Forecast, and It Could Put the FOMC on a Collision Course for Its September Meeting↑ 65%US Mortgage Rates Hit Highest Level in a Year as Fed Uncertainty and Iran Tensions Loom↑ 70%Social Security 2027 COLA may be 3.7% but still not offset Medicare–Cooler inflation delivers big win for Fed interest-rate bets–What to Expect in Markets this Week: Inflation Data, Warsh Testimony in Congress, Bank Earnings–The Federal Reserve's Initial July Inflation Forecast Looks Fantastic on the Surface, but Something Sinister Lurks in the Details–‘Goose egg!’: CNBC anchor stunned by largest US inflation decline in over 6 years — is Trump’s plan working?–US Dollar Price Forecast: Will CPI Revive DXY as EUR/USD and GBP/USD Test Resistance?–AI boom replaces oil as key inflation risk, says Barclays–

A

aljazeera.net819–91%settling↑ 91%

التضخم الأمريكي يتباطأ في يوليو ويُضعف مبررات رفع الفائدةsettling↑ 91%بعد 18 شهرا من ولاية ترمب.. اقتصاد أمريكي صامد وتضخم يضغط على الأسر↑ 82%جيه بي مورغان: النفط والنينيو قد يعرقلان تراجع التضخم العالمي في 2027↓ 19%الفدرالي الأمريكي يبدأ اجتماعه وسط توقعات بتثبيت الفائدة↑ 76%ارتفاع أسعار البنزين يضغط على الأمريكيين والسياسة تدخل على خط الأزمة↑ 75%الاحتياطي الفدرالي الأمريكي يتمسك بهدف خفض التضخم↑ 80%الاحتياطي الفدرالي يثبت الفائدة رغم ضغوط ترمب↑ 87%اقتصاد أمريكا يتباطأ إلى 1.5% في الربع الثاني والاستهلاك الشخصي يتراجع في يونيو–

C

cnbc.com650–88%settling↑ 88%

Here's the inflation breakdown for July 2026 — in one chartsettling↑ 88%Consumer prices rose 3.5% annually in June, less than expected as energy prices eased↑ 80%Import prices post surprise gain as costs of goods from China hit highest since 2008↑ 74%Interest rates may stay higher for longer. What that means for consumers↑ 80%New York Fed President Williams says inflation has peaked, rates 'well positioned'↑ 75%Here are the 2 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week ahead–

A

aa.com.tr526–98%settling↑ 98%

US stocks end mostly higher after inflation data, AI shares rallysettling↑ 98%US 30-Year Treasury yield hits 19-year high as Fed believed to fall behind in combating inflation↑ 80%Fed chair says central bank has ‘no tolerance’ for persistently high inflation↑ 76%Global markets mixed as softer US inflation offsets geopolitical concerns↓ 26%US inflation eases to 3.5% in June as energy prices fall sharply–

F

fortune.com378–87%↑ 87%

Sluggish third-quarter economy revealed as GDP falls to 1.5% | Fortune↑ 87%There's no escape from inflation as a perfect storm of the 'Godzilla' El Niño, AI boom, Trump tariffs, fuel crunch, and Ukraine war keep prices high | Fortune↑ 82%Wall Street futures rise ahead of inflation report as the Fed watches surging costs | Fortune↑ 78%

A

aljazeera.com268–98%settling↑ 98%

US consumer inflation slows in July as energy prices briefly retreatsettling↑ 98%US GDP growth dips as inflation and trade deficits pressure economy↑ 68%

Y

yahoo.com250–95%↑ 95%

Inflation eases to 3.5% in June↑ 95%CPI shows inflation rose 0.1% from June to July–

T

theguardian.com274–91%↑ 91%

US economy grows sluggish 1.5% in second quarter as inflation tops Fed target↑ 91%Inflation cools to 3.5% in June in relief brought by brief US-Iran deal↑ 74%

P

pbs.org250–88%settling↑ 88%

Inflation cooled last month as gas prices fell, though costs remain elevatedsettling↑ 88%Inflation eased in June, but Americans still feel pressure from high prices–

T

timesofindia.indiatimes.com278–78%↑ 78%

US Federal Reserve meet today: Kevin Warsh-led FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged↑ 78%Moody’s Analytics’ top economist Mark Zandi 'warning' for Americans: Tough immigration policies are also behind high inflation as they are diminishing available workforce in essential sectors like ...↑ 78%

S

semafor.comUS inflation rises 0.1% in July, easing pressure on Fedsettling↑ 98%

E

en.mercopress.comFed holds rates for fifth straight meeting as three officials push for a hike↑ 85%

A

al-monitor.comNasdaq rebounds as cooling US inflation weighs on dollar↑ 73%

Neutral / unclear (2)

C

coindesk.comU.S. CPI, JPMorgan, Citi earnings reports: Crypto Week Ahead–

I

independent.co.ukTrump was finally getting good inflation news- Then oil prices explode–

Author·

andrey1barA·Reputation 60

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Forecast by andrey1bar · opened Aug 6, 2026 · resolves Aug 12, 2026 · 0 forecasters · AI estimate 97% · resolved correct.

Author

andrey1barAReputation 60

Creation date

Aug 6, 2026, 12:53 PM UTC

Resolution date

Aug 12, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Tags

US Politics Economy Inflation

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!