Skip to content

Forecast Tracking

Forecasts
Activity
Leaderboard
Settings
Elections
About
Contact Us
Retro Analysis

Dec 31, 2026

Сообщество 55%

A formal, signed ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia will be publicly announced and take effect.

СозданДата создания

Feb 6, 2026Feb 6, 2026, 10:42 PM UTC

РешениеДата решения

Dec 31, 2026Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Контекст

Recent US-led peace talks in Abu Dhabi between Ukraine and Russia concluded without a breakthrough on a general ceasefire agreement, though a prisoner exchange involving 314 individuals did occur.…

Recent US-led peace talks in Abu Dhabi between Ukraine and Russia concluded without a breakthrough on a general ceasefire agreement, though a prisoner exchange involving 314 individuals did occur. Ukraine has also aligned with Western partners on a multi-tier plan for enforcing future ceasefire agreements and responding to potential violations.

Evidence estimate

Oracul

48%± 4%

TruthMachine Oracle (news-indexer match) · 82 articles

Resolves YES if both Ukraine and Russia publicly sign and announce a formal written ceasefire agreement that officially takes effect, with active hostilities ceasing under agreed terms. Unilateral ceasefires, temporary truces, or partial agreements not covering all major fronts do not qualify. Resolves NO if no such comprehensive signed agreement is in effect.

Сообщество 55%

Вы 50%

ИИ 48%

Tags

None

История прогнозов

Произойдёт1

55%

Не произойдёт0

—

Источники оценки по новостям(66 публикаций)

Каждая публикация занимает позицию по утверждению — в зависимости от позиции, выраженной в её материалах.

Уклон прессы51% · будет

Пресса склоняется к «произойдёт» · 51%

Произойдёт (10)

L

lemonde.fr76–76%↑ 76%

EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : les dernières informations après la visite du chef de la CIA à Moscou↑ 76%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : la Russie annonce qu’elle va « intensifier » ses attaques « sur les infrastructures ukrainiennes »↓ 16%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : au moins 12 blessés, dont deux enfants, dans des attaques nocturnes sur Kiev↓ 6%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : le Kremlin annonce une suspension des frappes sur Kiev pendant trois jours à l’occasion de la visite de Jared Kushner et de Steve Witkoff↓ 22%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : la Russie serait prête à un cessez-le-feu d’un jour pour des élections en Ukraine↓ 20%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : l’accord de cessez-le-feu énergétique annoncé par Donald Trump n’a été confirmé ni par Moscou, ni par Kiev ; Volodymyr Zelensky dénonce de nouvelles frappes russes↓ 16%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : Kiev se dit prête à arrêter ses frappes contre les raffineries russes si la Russie cesse de bombarder l’infrastructure énergétique ukrainienne–

K

kyivpost.com550–90%↑ 90%

Ukraine Allies Agree on Air Defense, Sanctions and Multinational Force↑ 90%Ukraine News Today: Breaking Updates & Live Coverage - September 23, 2026 from Kyiv Post↑ 89%Ukraine News Today: Breaking Updates & Live Coverage - September 24, 2026 from Kyiv Post–Trump Announces Immediate Energy Ceasefire for Ukraine, Russia–US Seeks Ukraine Peace Breakthrough Before Winter as Trump’s Envoys May Return to Moscow for Putin Talks–

A

azatutyun.am450–86%↑ 83%

Ուկրաինան, ԵՄ-ն և ՄԱԿ-ի 50 երկրներ Ռուսաստանին հրադադարի կոչ են անում↑ 83%Զելենսկին հայտնել է, որ խոսել է ԱՄՆ բանագնացների հետ↑ 86%Ռուսաստանը ցանկանում է վերջ տալ ուկրաինական հակամարտությանը. Լավրով↑ 83%Ռուսաստանը պատրաստ է մեկ օրով հրադադար հաստատել, եթե Ուկրաինան ընտրություններ անցկացնի. Պեսկով–

F

france24.com284–89%↑ 89%

Zelensky says Ukraine is ready for an energy ceasefire with Russia↑ 89%Zelensky says Ukraine ready to de-escalate if Russia halts strikes↑ 84%

D

dw.com220–86%↑ 86%

Ukraine updates: 2 killed in Kyiv as 3-day truce ends↑ 86%Trump says Russia, Ukraine agree to 'energy ceasefire'↓ 20%

S

srugim.co.il219–85%↑ 85%

טראמפ מכריז במפתיע: השגתי הסכם בין רוסיה ואוקראינה - סרוגים↑ 85%מקורבי זלנסקי מכחישים: "אין לנו מידע על ההסכם שטראמפ הכריז עליו" - סרוגים↓ 19%

A

aljazeera.com229–85%↑ 85%

Zelenskyy says Ukraine will pause attacks if Russia spares infrastructure↑ 85%Trump says Ukraine, Russia agree to ‘energy ceasefire’↓ 29%

R

rferl.orgA Quiet Ukrainian Counteroffensive, A 'Rout' For Russian Forces↑ 89%

T

themoscowtimes.comUkraine Wants Specifics From Partners on Halting Strikes, Zelensky Says - The Moscow Times↑ 86%

J

jpost.com Donald Trump says Ukraine, Russia reached 'energy ceasefire' agreement | The Jerusalem Post↑ 67%

Не произойдёт (7)

P

pravda.com.ua126–88%↓ 8%

Ukrainian General Staff explains why "ceasefire" did not take effect on line of contact↓ 8%Zelenskyy says Ukraine has approved long-range operations for October↓ 13%Ukraine sees energy and Black Sea ceasefire as possible key outcome of Zelenskyy-Trump meeting in New York↑ 83%Fifty countries and EU call on Russia to cease fire, US does not support statement↑ 88%Head of Zelenskyy's office: Ceasefire proposal was delivered to Putin, but he did not respond↓ 6%Zelenskyy: We are ready to sign guarantees for the Americans regarding the energy ceasefire↑ 75%Ukraine ready for five ceasefire arrangements, but Russia must agree – Foreign Ministry↑ 77%Ukraine's foreign minister: Russia violated "energy ceasefire" immediately after it was announced↓ 13%Zelenskyy explains steps Ukraine is prepared to take towards energy ceasefire–"We will shut down Russia's war machine" – Ukraine's acting defence minister comments on Novorossiysk operation–Zelenskyy: Ukraine has proposed that its partners secure agreement with Russia to halt infrastructure strikes–Zelenskyy: If Russia wants us to stop hitting refineries, it must stop strikes on our energy system–

A

aa.com.tr913–93%↓ 13%

EU agrees to terms to release $7.5B in Peace Facility funds for Ukraine↓ 13%EU Council chief urges immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, calls for pressure on Russia↑ 88%Ukraine, allies urge Russia to accept immediate, unconditional ceasefire↑ 90%Ukraine urges Russia at UN Security Council to accept unconditional ceasefire↑ 93%Ukraine says Russia has not responded to ceasefire proposal covering strikes, front line↑ 91%Zelenskyy doubts Russia will honor energy-target truce announced by Trump↓ 13%European Commission chief voices support for Ukraine’s call for ceasefire–Zelenskyy says Russia struck power plant after Trump announced energy ceasefire–Trump announces immediate energy ceasefire between Russia, Ukraine–

M

meduza.io413–50%↓ 23%

Канцлер Германии Фридрих Мерц приехал в Киев — Meduza↓ 23%Financial Times: Трамп поторопился с объявлением об энергетическом перемирии между Россией и Украиной — Meduza↓ 13%«Мы готовы. Войну нужно заканчивать». Зеленский — об энергетическом перемирии, которое анонсировал Трамп — Meduza–Reuters: Украина предложила России перемирие в Черном море — Meduza–

T

theguardian.com320–50%↓ 20%

Ukraine says Russia violated Trump’s ‘energy ceasefire’ – Europe live↓ 20%Zelenskyy says Trump claim of Ukraine and Russia ‘energy ceasefire’ was news to him – live updates–Trump announces partial ceasefire in Ukraine war as Zelenskyy says deal is ‘news to me’–

P

pbs.org214–50%↓ 14%

Trump claims Russia and Ukraine agree to 'energy ceasefire' despite continued attacks↓ 14%Zelenskyy says Ukraine will pause strikes on Russia if Kremlin spares critical infrastructure–

N

nbcnews.comTrump claims Russia and Ukraine agree to energy ceasefire, but Zelenskyy says this is ‘news for me’↓ 25%

T

tagesschau.deRussland greift trotz angeblicher "Energie-Waffenruhe" weiter Anlagen an↓ 18%

Нейтрально / неясно (5)

B

bbc.com350–50%–

Zelensky afirma que Ucrania apoya el "alto el fuego energético" anunciado por Trump, pero Rusia aún no se pronuncia - BBC News Mundo–Дональд Трамп заявил, что Россия и Украина договорились не наносить удары по энергетике друг друга - BBC News Русская служба–Как Трамп заключил «перемирие» между Путиным и Зеленским без них - Что это было? - Russian - BBC News Русская служба–

A

aljazeera.netما وراء الخبر.. هدنة الطاقة تكشف تباين المواقف الأمريكية والأوكرانية–

U

upi.comTrump says Russia, Ukraine agree to not attack energy facilities - UPI.com–

C

coindesk.comPresident Trump declares 'energy ceasefire' between Russia and Ukraine–

Y

yahoo.comUkraine will support energy ceasefire if US ensures Moscow's intent, Zelenskiy says–

Автор·

Mark Janwuf·ELO 1500

Обсуждение (0)

Пока нет комментариев. Будьте первым, кто поделится мнением!

Автор

Mark JanwufELO 1500

Дата создания

Feb 6, 2026, 10:42 PM UTC

Дата решения

Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Tags

None

Обсуждение (0)

Пока нет комментариев. Будьте первым, кто поделится мнением!