Feb 7, 2031
Community 50%
An earthquake with a magnitude of 5.0 or greater will occur within Israel's internationally recognized borders between February 7, 2026, and February 7, 2031.
CreatedCreation date
Feb 7, 2026Feb 7, 2026, 08:03 AM UTC
ResolvesResolution date
Feb 7, 2031Feb 7, 2031, 11:59 PM UTC
Experts universally agree that a major earthquake in Israel is inevitable, with various reference scenarios predicting thousands of fatalities, severe injuries, and widespread evacuations. Despite concerns about outdated construction, emergency response teams have reportedly been preparing for such an event for years.
Community 50%
You 50%
AI 52%
includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 1670 days
Sources behind the AI estimate(1 publication)
Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.
Press lean50% · will
Press is evenly splitNeutral / unclear (1)
+2 articles matched but not used by the AI
Discussion (0)
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!
Forecast by Mark Janwuf · opened Feb 7, 2026 · resolves Feb 7, 2031 · 0 forecasters · AI estimate 52% · open for forecasts.
Creation date
Feb 7, 2026, 08:03 AM UTC
Resolution date
Feb 7, 2031, 11:59 PM UTC
Discussion (0)
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!