What are the chances that George R.R. Martin will release 'The Winds of Winter' by December 31, 2026?

Name: George R.R. Martin will release 'The Winds of Winter' by December 31, 2026.
Start: 2026-08-28T15:54:43.601Z
End: 2026-12-31T23:59:59.000Z
Location: DAATAN

As of Aug 28, 2026: the AI estimate is 21%; the community estimate is 0%.

DAATAN

George R.R. Martin will release 'The Winds of Winter' by December 31, 2026.

Dec 31, 2026

Community 0%

George R.R. Martin will release 'The Winds of Winter' by December 31, 2026.

CreatedCreation date

Aug 28, 2026Aug 28, 2026, 03:54 PM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2026Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Forecasts History

Will happen0

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Won't happen1

Daniel KnutAuthor

Sources behind the AI estimate(1 publication)

Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean3% · will

Won't happen (1)

collider.comGeorge R.R. Martin Officially Confirms Why 'The Winds of Winter' Is 10+ Years Delayed↓ 3%

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Forecast by Daniel Knut · opened Aug 28, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 0% · AI estimate 21% · open for forecasts.

Author

Daniel KnutReputation 34

Creation date

Aug 28, 2026, 03:54 PM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!

George R.R. Martin will release 'The Winds of Winter' by December 31, 2026.

Situation

Forecasts History

Sources behind the AI estimate(1 publication)

Discussion (0)

Discussion (0)