What are the chances that George R.R. Martin will release 'The Winds of Winter' by December 31, 2026?

As of Oct 9, 2026: the evidence estimate is 12%; the community estimate is 8%.

Dec 31, 2026

Community 8%

George R.R. Martin will release 'The Winds of Winter' by December 31, 2026.

CreatedCreation date

Aug 28, 2026Aug 28, 2026, 03:54 PM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2026Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Context

The recent articles do not provide any new information or developments regarding the release of George R.R.…

The recent articles do not provide any new information or developments regarding the release of George R.R. Martin's 'The Winds of Winter'. The news covers other Game of Thrones-related media, such as a game and TV show analysis, or unrelated film releases. Therefore, there are no new updates from these sources to alter the previous context.

Last updated: Sep 15, 2026, 02:05 PM UTC

Based on

google.com