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Retro Analysis

Iran will publicly present its new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, by December 31, 2026.

Dec 31, 2026

Community 50%

Iran will publicly present its new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, by December 31, 2026.

CreatedCreation date

Jul 7, 2026Jul 7, 2026, 10:54 AM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2026Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Context

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei died in February/March 2026, and his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has succeeded him as the new Supreme Leader.…

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei died in February/March 2026, and his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has succeeded him as the new Supreme Leader. However, Mojtaba Khamenei has remained out of the public eye since his succession, leading to questions about his public role and the potential redefinition of the Supreme Leader's position.

Based on

Evidence estimate

Oracul

56%± 13%

TruthMachine Oracle (news-indexer match) · 76 articles

Resolved 'Yes' if Mojtaba Khamenei makes a public appearance or is officially presented by Iranian state media or government officials as the Supreme Leader. Resolved 'No' otherwise.

Community 50%

You 50%

AI 53%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 87 days

Tags

Geopolitics Iran Leadership

Sources behind the evidence estimate(83 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracul, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean51% · will

Press leans toward 'will happen' · 51%

Will happen (13)

B

bbc.com812–85%↑ 85%

پس از علی خامنه‌ای؛ جمهوری اسلامی چه چیزهایی را تغییر داد و چه چیزهایی را حفظ کرد؟ - BBC News فارسی↑ 85%خامنئي يخاطب دول الخليج... ماذا نعرف عنه بعد ستة أشهر من إصابته؟ - BBC News عربي↓ 12%Окно возможностей. Как может измениться иранский режим? - BBC News Русская служба↑ 75%از تهران تا نجف؛ آنچه درباره مراسم تشییع علی خامنه‌ای می‌دانیم - BBC News فارسی↓ 25%"Un acto cuidadosamente coreografiado y profundamente político": Irán despide al ayatolá Alí Jamenei en medio de amenazas contra EE.UU. e Israel - BBC News Mundo–كيف يختلف النظام الإيراني الجديد اختلافاً كبيراً عما كان قبله؟ - BBC News عربي–پزشکیان: خامنهای سیاستگذار است، حکومت دست دولت است - BBC News فارسی–تشييع علي خامنئي: مراسم تمتد ستة أيام بين طهران ومشهد والعراق - BBC News عربي–

M

middleeasteye.net613–94%↑ 88%

Iran begins six-day state funeral for Ali Khamenei↑ 88%Body of Seyyed Ali Khamenei brought to farewell ceremony in Tehran↑ 94%Funeral ceremonies for Khamenei officially begin in Tehran↑ 86%Over 20 million expected in Tehran for Ali Khamenei's funeral↑ 89%Iran’s late supreme leader Khamenei buried in Mashhad after week-long funeral↓ 13%Iran to release footage of Mojtaba Khamenei in the future, says report↓ 25%

A

aljazeera.net619–87%↑ 87%

مرشد يوارى الثرى وآخر يمسك بالزمام.. كيف يبدو مستقبل إيران بعهد مجتبى؟↑ 87%طهران تحسن استغلال جنازة خامنئي وتفشل في تبديد الشكوك بشأن مجتبى↓ 19%هل مجتبى خامنئي ميت؟↓ 19%هل يظهر مجتبى خامنئي في جنازة والده؟↓ 25%عاجل.. مسؤول الشؤون الإعلامية بالرئاسة الإيرانية: تعيين محسن رضائي أمينا للمجلس الأعلى للأمن القومي↑ 66%المرشد الإيراني يلتقي الرئيس وقاليباف يهنئ رضائي بمنصبه الجديد–

I

iranintl.com550–80%↑ 80%

Khamenei to end Eje'i’s judiciary tenure after one term↑ 80%Past funeral disasters cast a shadow over Khamenei's burial↑ 78%Potential state TV shakeup tests Iran’s willingness to rein in hardliners↑ 71%The end of one-man rule? Iran tests life after Khamenei–Iran buries Khamenei as fight over his power continues–

A

aa.com.tr450–93%↑ 93%

Coffin of Iran's slain supreme leader arrives in Mashhad for burial↑ 93%Iran holds funeral prayers for Khamenei ahead of burial↑ 89%Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has no 'specific' health issues: President↑ 79%Body of slain Iranian supreme leader reaches Iraq's Karbala–

A

aljazeera.com450–93%↑ 93%

Millions expected in Tehran for slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s funeral↑ 93%Mapping Iran’s Ali Khamenei funeral: Where mourners will gather each day↑ 80%Iran begins week of funeral ceremonies for slain Supreme Leader Khamenei↑ 66%Who is calling the shots in Iran amid the deadly war with the US?–

T

tehrantimes.com470–95%↑ 91%

New Tehran mural honors Martyred Leader amidst farewell ceremonies↑ 91%Humble and righteous: From birth to final breath↑ 95%With fists raised and vows of vengeance, millions entomb their martyred Leader↑ 89%A brave nation bids farewell to Ayatollah Khamenei↑ 70%

J

jpost.com350–93%↑ 93%

Tehran planning to appoint new chief justice to replace Mohseni-Eje'i | The Jerusalem Post↑ 93%Iran to bury supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei with week of mass mourning | The Jerusalem Post↑ 86%Iranian news releases video of Mojtaba Khamenei after months of silence | The Jerusalem Post–

T

theguardian.comMillions join funeral procession for Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei↑ 85%

B

bbc.co.uk از کشته‌شدن خامنه‌ای تا تهدید ترامپ به «نابودی یک تمدن»؛ ۱۰ لحظه سرنوشت‌ساز صد روز جنگ - BBC News فارسی↑ 84%

A

atlanticcouncil.orgهل يتمكن الزيدي من فصل الدولة عن الطائفة؟↑ 79%

C

cnbc.comIran begins six-day funeral for Ayatollah Khamenei nearly four months after his death↑ 75%

I

israelnationalnews.comReport: Mojtaba Khamenei expected to oust Iran’s Judiciary Chief↑ 65%

Won't happen (10)

Y

ynet.co.il813–80%↓ 16%

תעלומת איראן של מוג'תבא חמינאי, שלא הופיע להלוויה: "ישראל תעקוב למחבוא"↓ 16%המונים מלווים את ארונו של חמינאי, יורשו עדיין לא נראה: "ננקום בטראמפ ובישראל"↓ 13%בישראל הודפים את הטענות שהודהדו: "מוג'תבא באיראן, פצוע"↓ 20%נציגי המעצמות וארגוני הטרור שבהלוויית חמינאי, והאפשרות למעקב ישראלי: "תזכרו את הנייה"↓ 27%המבחן האמיתי עדיין בדרך↓ 25%כך הוחמצה הנורמליזציה עם סעודיה↑ 68%בניו של חמינאי הגיעו בלי מוג'תבא, קריאות להרוג את טראמפ: "למה הממזר עדיין חי"?↑ 80%המשבר בטהרן רק מתחיל. לאן הולכת איראן?–

T

timesofindia.indiatimes.com716–50%↓ 16%

Iran's unseen Supreme Leader may turn to Putin as first foreign contact amid war↓ 16%'Not in Iran': Israeli source says supreme leader absent as internal power struggle deepens↓ 20%Where is Mojtaba Khamenei? Iran Supreme Leader missing from father's funeral ceremonies↓ 21%Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei absent from wife's funeral: Report↓ 21%Gravely injured, 'a voice in the dark', not in Iran: Where is Mojtaba Khamenei?↓ 23%Where is Mojtaba? Iran's new Supreme Leader skips father Ali Khamenei's funeral↓ 21%Supreme Leader Khamenei footage to be released 'in future', Iran says as reports claim he is close to 'dead'–

Y

yahoo.com67–85%↓ 7%

Iran's disfigured supreme leader remains invisible six months into an existential war↓ 7%Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who led Iran with iron fist while confronting the US, will be buried↑ 84%Funeral for Iran’s late supreme leader↑ 85%Iran sends a defiant message to Trump with colossal funeral for slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei↑ 83%'Interaction' with Iran's injured Supreme Leader increasing daily, president says↓ 22%Iran’s supreme leader vows revenge for father’s killing↓ 20%

A

al-monitor.com49–50%↓ 9%

Iran's disfigured supreme leader remains invisible six months into an existential war↓ 9%Iran to bury slain Supreme Leader in culmination of mass funeral↓ 17%Mojtaba Khamenei absence signals shifting role for Iran leader↓ 22%Analysis-How the absence of Iran's new supreme leader is becoming a liability for the Islamic Republic–

I

independent.co.uk316–20%↓ 16%

Iran bury slain Supreme Leader as mourners chant ‘kill Trump’ slogans↓ 16%Iranians call for ‘any sign’ supreme leader is alive 6 months into war↓ 18%Iran begins days-long funeral for Ayatollah Khamenei months after his death↓ 20%

F

france24.com225–50%↓ 25%

Spotlight - Why Iran's unseen leader remains in the shadows↓ 25%The Debate - Iran after Khamenei: What direction after Supreme Leader's funeral?–

T

tagesschau.de222–25%↓ 22%

Chameneis Sohn und Nachfolger fehlt bei Trauerfeier in Teheran↓ 22%In Iran beginnt Trauerfeier für getöteten obersten Führer Chamenei↓ 25%

Y

ynetnews.com221–92%↓ 21%

'We came for revenge': Crowds march for Khamenei in 12-hour Tehran funeral procession↓ 21%Mojtaba's eyes and ears: Iran’s feared protest-crusher returns to power as regime tightens its grip↑ 92%

F

fortune.comIn Iran, regime officials who survived the war intended to kill them appear in public for dayslong funeral of the late Supreme Leader Khamenei | Fortune↓ 23%

D

dw.comIran after Khamenei: A new order takes shape↓ 21%

Neutral / unclear (2)

S

srugim.co.ilמתכונן לחידוש המלחמה? חמינאי ממנה נציג חדש לקבינט - סרוגים–

A

azatutyun.amԻրանը հետագայում կհրապարակի Գերագույն առաջնորդի մասնակցությամբ տեսանյութեր. «Միզան»–

Author·

komapcA·ELO 1404

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Forecast by komapc · opened Jul 7, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 0 forecasters · evidence estimate 53% · open for forecasts.

Author

komapcAELO 1404

Creation date

Jul 7, 2026, 10:54 AM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Tags

Geopolitics Iran Leadership

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!