Magnus Carlsen will no longer be the FIDE World No. 1 rated chess player by December 31, 2028.

CreatedCreation date

Feb 22, 2026Feb 22, 2026, 12:47 PM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2028Dec 31, 2028, 11:59 PM UTC

Context

Following comments from Magnus Carlsen, FIDE is planning or considering eliminating the ratings spot for the Candidates tournament from 2028 onward.…

Following comments from Magnus Carlsen, FIDE is planning or considering eliminating the ratings spot for the Candidates tournament from 2028 onward. This proposed change concerns qualification methods for the Candidates, not Carlsen's current status as FIDE World No. 1.

Last updated: Feb 24, 2026, 10:01 AM UTC

Based on

youtube.com

Evidence estimate

Oracul

73%± 27%

TruthMachine Oracle (admin re-publish from pool) · 3 articles

Community 59%

You 50%

AI 73%

Forecasts History

Will happen1

Evgeny Ber

60%

Won't happen2

komapcAuthor

56%

Oren Dafni

60%

Sources behind the evidence estimate(9 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracul, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean68% · will

Will happen (3)

en.chessbase.com567–75%↑ 75%

And then there were four?↑ 75%CBM 231: Sindarov and Vaishali steal the show↑ 70%FIDE ratings - July 2026↑ 75%Most attractive chess players↑ 67%Chess Statistics Today↑ 67%

timesofindia.indiatimes.com'Praggnanandhaa is No. 1 in the world': Viswanathan Anand after India's first Grand Chess Tour title | Exclusive↑ 90%

azatutyun.amԿայծակնային հաղթանակ՝ սպիտակներով. ով է Մագնուս Կառլսենին հաղթած 14-ամյա հայ պատանին↑ 65%

Neutral / unclear (2)

fide.comFIDE July 2026 rating list published–

chessdom.comTePe Sigeman & Co Chess 2026 LIVE–

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Forecast by komapc · opened Feb 22, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2028 · 3 forecasters · community consensus 59% · evidence estimate 73% · open for forecasts.

Author

komapcAELO 1404

Creation date

Feb 22, 2026, 12:47 PM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2028, 11:59 PM UTC

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!