Magnus Carlsen will no longer be the FIDE World No. 1 rated chess player by December 31, 2028.

Dec 31, 2028

Community 59%

Magnus Carlsen will no longer be the FIDE World No. 1 rated chess player by December 31, 2028.

What are the chances that Magnus Carlsen will no longer be the FIDE World No. 1 rated chess player by December 31, 2028? As of Jul 20, 2026: the AI estimate is 59%; the community estimate is 59%. · Updated Jul 20, 2026

CreatedCreation date

Feb 22, 2026Feb 22, 2026, 12:47 PM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2028Dec 31, 2028, 11:59 PM UTC

Tags

Following comments from Magnus Carlsen, FIDE is planning or considering eliminating the ratings spot for the Candidates tournament from 2028 onward. This proposed change concerns qualification methods for the Candidates, not Carlsen's current status as FIDE World No. 1.

Community 59%

You 50%

AI 59%

Forecasts History

Will happen1

60%

Won't happen2

56%

60%

Sources behind the AI estimate(7 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean65% · will

Will happen (1)

E

en.chessbase.com567–75%↑ 75%

And then there were four?↑ 75%CBM 231: Sindarov and Vaishali steal the show↑ 70%FIDE ratings - July 2026↑ 75%Most attractive chess players↑ 67%Chess Statistics Today↑ 67%

Neutral / unclear (2)

F

fide.comFIDE July 2026 rating list published–

C

chessdom.comTePe Sigeman & Co Chess 2026 LIVE–

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Forecast by komapc · opened Feb 22, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2028 · 3 forecasters · community consensus 59% · AI estimate 59% · open for forecasts.

Author

komapcAReputation 104

Creation date

Feb 22, 2026, 12:47 PM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2028, 11:59 PM UTC

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Discussion (0)

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